Wheat has just rebounded for a few days, and many people's hearts have begun to drum again, thinking that the rebound will not make any big show, and the fundamental reason is that the expectation of a bumper yield and the intensive auction will suppress the market before the new wheat is listed. Excuse me, what are the reasons for these two factors?
The market fluctuations, seems to be the game of supply and demand, its essence is the game of emotions, when everyone is unanimously bullish, all the positive factors surface, the negative factors are sprinkled with water; when everyone unanimously bears the fall, all the negative factors will dominate your emotions, the positive factors are left behind.
Hello friends, today is April 1, 2024, in the past two days, from Hebei to Shandong, from Shandong to Henan, from Henan to Anhui, flour enterprises have begun to rebound and rise, and the purchase price led by Shandong Dongming Wudeli has come to 1.4 yuan, which has also carried a clear banner for the future wheat to continue to rise.
In the face of the market that has just risen, some people have started the "crisis" theory again - thinking that the unanimous sentiment of pessimism will lead to a wave of concentrated selling pressure after the traders and farmers with grain in their hands see the rebound, and then the market will be over!
We can't just look at the market based on the current market, but we have to review what is happening in the wheat market?
1. Flour enterprises maintain a low inventory situation, and flour dealers also maintain low inventory, and they are waiting to see the fluctuations of the market to prevent themselves from being damaged in the so-called ups and downs.
2. At the current point in time, flour companies maintain the inertia of low inventories, but they forget that there is no excess carryover in the wheat market in the 2023 quarter, in other words, there is little wheat available at the grassroots level. Excuse me, at the time of handover of new and old wheat, is it necessary to replenish the warehouse for 1~2 rounds?
3. The mainstream view of the market is that the wheat price is expected to be bumper in sight, so the price of new wheat is likely to fall to about 1.2 yuan, but I personally think that it will be a slap in the face, and this view is waiting for the verification of the market.
At the same time, even if the price of the scale reaches 1.2 yuan, it does not mean that the wheat market will be sluggish. Because, if it really reaches 1.2 yuan, wheat traders will flock to the harvest, so even if 1.2 yuan appears, it is a real "flash in the pan".
4. Whether the wheat harvest is bumper or not can no longer affect the pace of wheat price rise, because the eldest brother has estimated that the wheat planting area will increase this year, and the harvest is expected to be bumper, so after the new wheat is listed, the purchase of wheat will be strengthened, even if the price of wheat in the new season will fall low, it will not affect the soaring wheat price in 2023, rising to the point that you "doubt" your life.
Why is the editor so confident that the price of wheat in 2023 will soar, and why is it confirmed that the price of wheat in the new season will not fall to 1.2 yuan?
First of all, the 28th law of the market, when most of the subjects unanimously believe that the market, then the market is basically contrary to it, although it is not 100% certain, but there is basically no probability of occurring.
Secondly, due to the emergence of sprouts in 2023, a large number of sprouts have entered feed enterprises, and a large number of storage efforts have been superimposed, which has reduced the supply of grain in the market, so after the new season wheat is listed, the supply of aged wheat has reached a historical low.
Third, it is precisely with the rotation and auction of grain reserves and land reserves that the main export of flour enterprises can have a fearless drop in price, otherwise flour enterprises are very likely to be forced to stop processing, but in terms of emotions have suppressed everyone's expectations.
Fourth, the annual consumption of flour is a balanced situation as a whole, in other words, the total use of the level has not changed significantly, the flour sales of flour enterprises every day "crying dad and shouting mother" are not good, or to find their own industry problems, and a raw material wheat has nothing to do with it.
To sum up, Xiaobian personally arbitrarily believes that the strength of the wheat price rebound in 2023 will make most people question and do not believe, and it will also break the expectation of opening the scale of 1.2 yuan.
Then the market carried out a new round of speculation and storytelling, so far, the 2024 wheat kicked off, traders desperately grabbed the wheat, pushing the price of wheat up again, looking back, there is still a lot of wheat everywhere, began to copy the corn market. (The above is only a personal opinion, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
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Latest national wheat prices for April 1, 2024
河北雄县五得利：1.37元，涨5厘。
Hebei Haomian Group (Xiong'an) flour: Baipumai 1.37 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Heze Shan County Flying: 1.38 yuan, up 1 point.
Shandong Yongming flour: 1.4 yuan before the rain, up 1 point.
山东东明五得利: 1.4 yuan of barley, 1 minute of 涨.
Shandong developed flour Liaocheng Company: 1.37 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong developed flour Wucheng Company: 1.365 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Fa Fa No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 No. 1 No. 1 No. 1 Yuan, up 5 percent.
Shandong Fa Fa No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 No. 1 No. 1 (West District): Pumai 1.37 yuan, up 5%.
Anhui Bozhou Wudeli: Pumai 1.38 yuan, up 1 point.
Jinshahe, Anhui: Xinmai and Chenmai were 1.38 yuan, up 2 points.
Henan Zhiqing noodle industry: 1.38 yuan, up 1 point.
Henan Suiping Wudeli: 1.38 yuan, up 1 point.
Henan Shangqiu Wudeli: red wheat 1.38 yuan, up 1 point.