For the first time, the population of the six central provinces has collectively experienced negative growth!

Author: Yu Fei

01

Zhejiang is over Hunan, and Fujian is over Liaoning

So far, 29 of the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in the mainland have released permanent population data for 2023, just behind Heilongjiang and Tibet.

Without further ado, go straight to the data.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Statistical Bureaus of Provinces, Municipalities and Autonomous Regions

As you can see from the table above:

First, Guangdong is still the most populous province and Shandong is the second most populous.

Guangdong is the province with the strongest population and economy, the strongest industry and the strongest population in the country. Shandong is the strongest province in the economy in the north, the strongest province in the industry in the north, and the strongest province in the population in the north.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Statistical Bureaus of Provinces, Municipalities and Autonomous Regions, of which Heilongjiang and Tibet do not publish data

Second, the list of the top 10 provinces remains the same, but the rankings have changed.

Among them, the top six are unchanged, followed by Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hebei.

In seventh place, due to the continuous decline in the population of Hunan, it will be replaced by Zhejiang Province, which continues to have a continuous inflow of population, Zhejiang is seventh, and Hunan has slipped to eighth place.

Anhui ninth, Hubei tenth.

Third, there are still changes in the ranking of permanent residents in Fujian and Liaoning.

 Liaoning's population has been declining for more than a decade, with Qipu data showing that in the decade from 2010 to 2020, Liaoning's population fell by 1.15 million people. In 2022, there were another 256,000 decreases, 324,000 in 2022, and 150,000 in 2023.

That is, from 2010 to 2023, Liaoning Province has a total of 1.88 million fewer people.

In Fujian during the same period, the population increased by 4.65 million during the Qipu period, and by 260,000 in 2021. It was not until the national population peaked in 2022 that Fujian's increase fell sharply, with only 10,000 people added in 2022 and 50,000 fewer in 2023.

One is declining wildly, the other is increasing and has not decreased until recently, and in this context, Fujian Province's population increase will surpass Liaoning in 2023 and rank 14th in the country.

02

19 decreased, and Henan ranked first in the reduction

From the point of view of population increase and decrease.

In 2023, the Chinese population has dropped for the second time in a row, and I did an analysis as soon as the National Bureau of Statistics released the data.

In 2022, the Chinese population decreased by 850,000 and in 2023 by 2.08 million.

The immediate cause of the demographic shift is that the number of births continues to decline and is lower than the number of deaths.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national newborn population will be 9.02 million in 2023, which will continue to be lower than the number of deaths. Last year, 11.1 million people died in the country.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: National Bureau of Statistics

The overall population environment of the whole country is like this, and it is obvious that the area of population deflation in various places is constantly expanding, and the speed of deflation is accelerating.

First, the number of provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions with negative population growth is increasing.

In 2022, 13 of the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in the mainland will have a decrease in population, and 19 of the 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions that have published data in 2023 will be decreasing. Heilongjiang, which has not released data, is also likely to decrease.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Statistical Bureaus of Provinces, Municipalities and Autonomous Regions, of which Heilongjiang and Tibet do not publish data

Second, Henan has the largest population decline, followed by Shandong.

Previously, when Shandong Province released data, this number analyzed the situation in Shandong.

According to the data of the seventh population census, the permanent population of Shandong Province increased by 5.734 million in the decade from 2010 to 2020, with an average annual increase of more than 570,000.

In 2021, it stalled, with an increase of only 49,900 people. In 2022, it will directly enter negative growth. In 2023, the population will accelerate its decline.

According to the data released by Shandong Province, the natural population (birth population - death population) in Shandong Province decreased by 221,000 last year.

This means that there is a net outflow of 177,200 people from Shandong Province.

Henan has always been a major exporter of population, ranking first in the country in terms of population decline in 2021, with a decrease of 580,000 permanent residents that year. In 2022, due to the return of people from the southeast coast to the mainland due to the epidemic, Henan's population decline slowed, but it also decreased by 110,000 people.

In 2023, the number of population declines will continue to be the highest in the country, with a decrease of 570,000 people.

According to the data disclosed by the Henan Bureau of Statistics, last year, the number of births in Henan Province was 695,000, the number of deaths was 787,000, and the natural population decreased by 92,000.

Based on this calculation, Henan Province had a net outflow of 478,000 people last year.

Third, the population of the six central provinces has collectively decreased.

From the perspective of the large plate, the population of the six central provinces has collectively decreased, and the Northeast is actually the same, although Heilongjiang Province has not released data, but from its past population decline, it is bound to be decreasing.

Looking at the central part of the country, Henan's population decreased by 570,000, Hunan's by 360,000, Shanxi's by 153,600, Jiangxi's by 129,700, Anhui's by 60,000, and Hubei's by 60,000.

When I analyzed the positive population of Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin a few days ago, I did an analysis, and a very important factor for them to become positive is that the peacock is still flying southeast after the epidemic is over.

In 2022, under the raging epidemic, the data of normal population has been completely disrupted, and many historical pictures have emerged.

For example, Guangdong's population has historically decreased, Shenzhen's population has decreased for the first time since the establishment of the city, and Guangzhou's population has decreased historically.

In addition, in 2022, the permanent population of first-tier cities will decline collectively.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Of the 11 cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, all of them decreased except for Zhuhai.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

In 2022, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Beijing are all areas severely affected by the epidemic.

Nucleic acid and lockdown at every turn, coupled with the frequent shutdown of factories last year, there was nothing to do, and they had to spend money if they couldn't make money, so many migrant workers chose to return to their hometowns for development.

According to the 2022 Migrant Worker Monitoring Survey Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the migrant workers who went out in 2022, 70.61 million migrated across provinces, a decrease of 690,000 or 1.0% over the previous year, and 101.29 million migrated within the province, an increase of 870,000 or 0.9% over the previous year.

The number of migrant workers across provinces has decreased, and the flow within the province has increased.

Therefore, we can see that in 2022, the population of Guangdong, Shandong, Shanghai, and Beijing will decrease, and the population increase of Jiangsu and Zhejiang will also decrease, but some of the central and western provinces with population reduction in 2021 will have population increases, such as Jiangxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, Yunnan, etc.

The most exaggerated is Yunnan. Yunnan's population decreased by 309,300 in 2021 and increased by 30,000 in 2022.

Entering 2023, with the end of the epidemic, the population began to return, so we saw another situation, the population in the central and western regions that originally returned because of the epidemic continued to pour into the eastern coastal areas.

The population of the central part of the country decreased collectively, and on the contrary, the population of most of the southeastern coast increased.

Zhejiang Province added 500,000 people, Guangdong, which had a historic decrease in population in 2022, increased by 490,000, Hainan increased by 159,800, Shanghai increased by 115,600, Jiangsu by 110,000, Beijing by 15,000, and Tianjin by 10,000.

03

The impact of depopulation

The effects of depopulation are numerous.

First, increase the aging rate.

According to the statistical yearbook, the number of people aged 65 and above in mainland China reached 209.78 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total population.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: National Bureau of Statistics

According to the international classification standards, we have entered a deep aging society, and we are not far from a super-aging society.

According to the 2023 data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of the population over 65 years old has reached 15.4%. The proportion of the population aged 60 is as high as 21.1%.

Second, reduce the labor force and put pressure on economic growth.

In 2022, the labor force will be 962.89 million, a decrease of 47.52 million or 4.7% from the peak of 101041 in 2013.

The decline in the labor force is the result of the decline in newborns and the intensification of aging.

The decline in the labor force will inevitably affect the pressure on economic growth.

Some people say that the United States, Japan and Europe also have small populations, and they are still developed countries, so why will our population decline affect the economy?

The United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and other developed countries are financial capital powers, science and technology powers, and their GDP is mainly supported by the financial services industry and the technology service industry.

China is a big country with industrial capital and manufacturing power, and population is our advantage. When the population shifts, our advantage is gone.

Third, the impact on the education system.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics:

In 2023, there will be 40.93 million children in preschool education.

This data, compared with 2022, is a decrease of 5.3455 million people.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: National Bureau of Statistics

Judging from historical data, the number of kindergartens in kindergartens has peaked in 2020, and the number of kindergartens in 2021 has decreased by 130,600 compared with before, which is the first decrease in the number of kindergartens in many years.

In 2022, the number of people in kindergartens will accelerate by 1,776,600. The accelerated decline in the number of kindergartens has led to the first decrease in the number of kindergartens.

According to data released by the Ministry of Education, there will be 289,200 kindergartens in 2022, a decrease of 5,610 from the previous year.

Now, the reduction in the number of kindergartens in 2023 has expanded to 5,345,500, although the Ministry of Education has not disclosed the number of kindergartens last year, but it is conceivable that the wave of kindergarten closures will inevitably accelerate.

This impact has extended to primary schools.

Over the past 20 years, the number of primary schools has been declining due to the closure and consolidation of a large number of primary schools in rural areas due to urbanization.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Ministry of Education

But 2021 is a completely different story. In 2022, not only the number of elementary schools is decreasing, but the number of students enrolled and the number of students enrolled are also decreasing, which has not been seen before.

According to the data of the Ministry of Education, in 2022, the number of students enrolled in primary schools nationwide will be 17.0139 million, a decrease of 811,900 or 4.55% from the previous year, and the number of students enrolled will be 107 million, a decrease of 478,800 or 0.44% from the previous year

This means that the pace of primary school closure will be accelerated and a new phase will be entered.

The number of primary school students in school, the number of schools and the number of students enrolled in 2023 have yet to be announced by the Ministry of Education.

In fact, the result can be imagined, under the demographic turn, the impact of primary schools is only a matter of time.

The second wave of influence will move over time into middle school, high school, and even college.

As previously calculated, the impact of the decline in newborns on high school will occur in 2034.

In 2023, the number of national college entrance examinations will reach a new high, reaching 12.91 million.

Data: Ministry of Education;

Those who take the college entrance examination in 2023 correspond to the number of people born around 2005.

As can be seen from the above data chart of the number of births, the national newborn population in 2005 was 16.17 million, which is a number that connects the previous and the next, and then the number of births declined slightly, falling below 16 million, and it was only in 2012 that it surpassed 2005 again, and in 2016 it hit a new high in the past two decades.

Therefore, in terms of the number of births, the number of college entrance exams will continue to refresh the skyline in the future, and is expected to peak in 2034, and then turn around as the number of new students continues to decline after 2016.

Fourth, it poses a long-term negative for the property market.

The population decline, especially the continued decline in the number of newborns, poses a short-, medium- and long-term negative impact on the property market.

After all, population is the cornerstone of the property market.

Coupled with the deterrence of the education rotation system, the demand and speculation for school district housing have fallen into a downturn in the past two years, causing the price of housing in top school districts in top cities to plunge.

The prices of top school districts in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Nanjing, Suzhou, and Qingdao are all diving.

Take a look at the data for Shenzhen, where I'm located.

Prices for housing in key school districts have fallen by a quarter.

Leyoujia data shows that in 2023, the overall transaction price of real estate in key school districts will fall from 93,500 / square meter at a high point to 68,500 / square meter today, a decrease of 26.7%.

The average price of the city's six famous schools fell from 132,490 yuan/square meter to 100741 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 24%. And the decline is still the same, and it will soon fall below 100,000+ as a whole.

The most important thing is that this kind of negative will continue to act on the property market.

In the context of excessive supply and shrinking demand, it is inevitable that prices will continue to adjust. At present, all the rescue operations are nothing more than to prevent a hard landing and achieve a soft landing.