The data doesn't lie|The Warriors' 20th change and 2nd are back on track?The Rockets' 11-game winning streak can't catch up with Curry

The Rockets narrowly defeated the Jazz 101-100 to snap an incredible 11-game winning streak. But looking at the standings, there is still a one-win gap between them and the Warriors. The Rockets are unstoppable, and the Warriors are bouncing back. Compared to the Rockets' 11-game winning streak, the Warriors' three-game winning streak may seem inconspicuous, but it's special.

The Warriors' three-game winning streak has defeated the Heat, Magic and Hornets on the road, and they have not allowed their opponents to score more than 100 points in three consecutive games. The Warriors were the first to mention the achievement after the game, and the last time the Warriors did it on the defensive end was in the 2016-17 season.

Warriors reporter Slater commented: "The Warriors have won three straight games with their defense, allowing the Heat, Magic and Hornets to score only 92, 93 and 97 points respectively...... In these three games, they have allowed the opponent to score only 11 points, 17 points, 17 points, and 20 points in a single quarter. ”

Is defense a winning weapon for the Warriors to get back, and how much hope do the Rockets have of squeezing out the Warriors?

20th to 2nd, the Warriors' defense has improved significantly

Before the All-Star Weekend, the Warriors ranked 20th in the league in defensive efficiency of 116.6, and after the All-Star Weekend, the Warriors reached 110.7, which ranked 9th in the league. In the last three games, the Warriors have reached 100.4 defensive efficiency, ranking second in the league and first in the West during the same period.

In the last three games, the Warriors limited the opponent's average secondary offensive scoring per game to only 9.3, which ranked fourth in the league in the same period, limited the opponent's fast-break scoring average of 8.0 points per game, ranked second in the league in the same period, and limited the opponent's average interior scoring per game to 44 points, which ranked seventh in the league during the same period. Prior to All-Star Weekend, the Warriors were ranked 11th, 23rd and 16th in the league.

One important change is that these three games have put Looney back in the rotation. Kerr praised the veteran's defensive role, and the stats proved the impact of Looney's return to the rotation. In the past 3 games, when Looney was on the court, although the Warriors' offensive efficiency was only 101.2, the defensive efficiency was an astonishing 76.7, and they could win the opponent by 24.5 points in 100 rounds!

The objective factor is that none of the three opponents that the Warriors have encountered are teams with sharp offense. So far this season, in the offensive efficiency ranking, the Heat are 22nd, the Magic are 23rd, and the Hornets are 29th. It remains to be seen if the Warriors' defense can withstand a team with a better offense.

However, the rest of the Warriors' schedule is indeed easy, and of their seven opponents in their last nine games, only the Mavericks are in the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency, and they are in sixth place. The other six teams are ranked as follows: Spurs 26th, Rockets 20th, Jazz 17th, Lakers 15th, Trail Blazers 28th, Pelicans 12th.

Curry's offense slipped and forced the Warriors to find another way

Relying on Curry's outside firepower used to be the Warriors' way to win. So far this season, Curry has hit at least 7 three-pointers in 15 games, and in these 15 games, the Warriors are 11-4, with a winning rate of 73.3%.

So, when Curry's form is declining, the Warriors have to find a new way to win. Taking All-Star Weekend as the dividing line, Curry's performance is quite different. Before the All-Star Weekend, Curry averaged 28 points per game, shooting 46.2% from the field and 42.1% from three-point range, while after the All-Star weekend, Curry averaged 22 points per game, shooting 40.4% from the field and 34.7% from three-point range.

After All-Star weekend, the Warriors also began to control Curry's playing time (averaging nearly three minutes per game) and focus more on the defensive end. In only 2 of the 53 games before the All-Star Weekend, the Warriors limited the opponent's scoring to 100 points, accounting for 3.8%, while in 6 of the 20 games after the All-Star Weekend, the Warriors limited the opponent's scoring to 100 points, accounting for 30%.

Is it harder for the Rockets to squeeze out the Warriors?

Judging from the schedule alone, the Warriors and the Rockets face completely different difficulties. The Warriors have an average win rate of 46.4% in their remaining nine games, ranking 24th in the league, while the Rockets have an average win rate of 53.7% in their remaining nine games, ranking 6th in the league.

In addition, don't look at the difference between the two wins is 1 game, but if the Rockets want to squeeze out the Warriors, after all, they surpass the Warriors in the final record win rate, and the Warriors can rank in front of the Rockets even if the final win rate is the same as the Rockets (2-0 so far this season, no matter what the result of the last meeting is, the Warriors have the advantage).

Judging from the schedule and head-to-head records, the Rockets are at a disadvantage, and the original advantage can only rely on the hot state, but now that the Warriors have also won 3 consecutive victories, especially when the defense is in the state, it is more difficult for the Rockets to catch up.

It's no wonder that Basketball Reference isn't optimistic that the Rockets will eventually get a play-in spot. In the latest prediction data, the Rockets have a 78.8% probability of missing the play-in tournament, while the same data is 14.6% for the Warriors, 4.9% for the Lakers, 1.0% for the Kings and 0.7% for the Suns.

Who will have the last laugh in the battle for a place in the play-offs?