Why did A-shares fall below 3,000 points again?

The decline of the A-share market was affected by multiple factors, including the market's intrinsic adjustment needs, exchange rate adjustments, the digestion of policy expectations and global economic uncertainties

Text: "Caijing" reporter Zhang Xinpei

Editor|Yang Xiuhong

After standing above 3,000 points for almost a month, on March 27, the Shanghai Composite Index came below 3,000 points again. The loss of the 3,000-point integer mark again became the focus of the market.

On March 27, A-shares performed weakly after the open, but were relatively stable overall. However, more than half an hour before the close, the market suddenly began to fall. The Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index fell sharply.

In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.26%, losing 3,000 points again. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.40%. The GEM index fell 2.81%, losing 1,800 points. The small- and mid-cap indices fell sharply. The total net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 7 billion yuan.

Many institutions believe that the decline of the A-share market on that day was affected by the superposition of multiple factors, including the market's intrinsic adjustment demand and exchange rate adjustment. In addition, the digestion of policy expectations and global economic uncertainty will affect the trend of A-shares.

"Overall, the market's need for self-adjustment is the dominant factor. Hu Mohan, manager of Mingze Investment Fund, believes.

A number of institutional sources said the decline was "expected". "Since the beginning of the year, the market has rebounded a lot, and the bottom has been more profitable. However, after the adjustment, it is still a good time to invest. Ma Cheng, chairman of Juze Investment, said.

Again 3000 points lost

On March 27, after the Shanghai Composite Index opened low, it fluctuated all the way, and the decline in the range was relatively limited. It was not until more than half an hour before the close that the Shanghai Composite Index began to fall rapidly. At 2:14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04%. However, by the end of the day, the decline had extended to 1.26%. Important indices such as the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index and the ChiNext Index all fell sharply after 2 p.m. on the same day.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,993.14 points, down 1.26%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9,222.47 points, down 2.40%. The GEM index fell 2.81%, losing 1,800 points. The STAR 50 fell 2.50%. The cumulative turnover of the two cities is 888.8 billion yuan.

The small- and mid-cap indices fell sharply. The CSI 1000 fell 3.33% and the CSI 2000 fell 3.61%. The Wonder Micro Cap Index fell 3%. Large-cap stocks fell relatively modestly. The SSE 50 fell 0.61% and the CSI 300 fell 1.16%.

Wind data shows that more than 4,700 stocks in the two cities fell, accounting for 88%. Only 588 stocks rose.

There was also a large-scale outflow of northbound funds. Wind data shows that on March 27, the total net outflow of northbound funds was 7.250 billion yuan, which was the second largest trading day with a net outflow this year. Among them, the net outflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 1.764 billion yuan, and the net outflow of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 5.486 billion yuan.

In terms of sectors, banking and household appliances are the only two industries that are red. The banking sector bucked the trend and rose 0.42%, while household appliances rose 0.16%. The biggest decline was in computers, which led the decline with a decline of 4.75%. The media sector fell 4.05%. Electronics, national defense and military industry, communications and other sectors fell by more than 3%.

(The rise and fall of the main index of A-shares on March 27 Data source: Wind Information)

Why did A-shares fall suddenly?

In fact, since February 6, A-shares have continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising as high as 3,090 points. However, this trend did not last, and after rebounding to a high of 3,090 on March 19, the index began to retrace in a choppy correction.

In response to the decline of A-shares on March 27, Chen Xingwen, chief investment officer of Blacksaki Capital, believes that there are many reasons. First of all, after the market experienced a short-term rally in the early stage, some investors chose to take profits, which led to increased selling pressure in the market.

Second, the decline in the renminbi exchange rate may have exacerbated concerns about capital outflows, affecting market confidence in economic stability and asset values. In addition, the lack of new policy support and capital inflows in the market in the short term makes it difficult for the market to gain sustained upward momentum.

At the same time, on the international front, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about global economic growth have further exacerbated the market's cautious sentiment. Under the combined effect of these factors, the A-share market has seen a significant adjustment.

Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, also believes that the adjustment of A-shares is mainly based on two reasons. The first is the intrinsic adjustment demand of the market. From the perspective of trading volume, the turnover has exceeded one trillion yuan for 5 consecutive days, the turnover of the market is increasing, and many stocks have seen a good upward trend since February, and there are many stocks that have doubled, and the pressure on profit realization is increasing.

The second is that the RMB exchange rate has fallen to a certain extent. There have been many relatively large outflows of northbound funds in the past week. At present, there is an overall abundance of funds in the market, and more funds are waiting for the allocation opportunities brought by the adjustment. After the market has consolidated, it is expected to re-select the upside.

Policy and financial support is an important driving force for the continuous upward movement of A-shares.

In the view of Yi Xiaobin, director of equity investment of Shunshi Investment, the reason for the recent adjustment of A-shares is that after the market runs to around 3,000 points, more policy and financial support is needed for further upward attack. "It's not going to be easy at the moment. The accumulation of profit orders also takes time or space to digest, and the volatility will definitely rise. Yi Xiaobin said.

"The current market sentiment is okay, but relatively fragile. The continuous long-term adjustment has frightened the market, and it will take time and space to regain confidence. Yi Xiaobin said.

Yi Xiaobin predicts that the market will fluctuate repeatedly in the short term, on the one hand, digesting short-term profit chips, and on the other hand, waiting for the gradual clarity of the annual report and the first quarterly report. At the same time, economic data is needed to support it.

For the next trend of A-shares, Hu Mohan judged that although the market may experience an adjustment in the short term, the current decline is a normal market adjustment and there is no need to worry too much. The A-share market still maintains a medium- to long-term upward trend.

Chen Xingwen also said that looking ahead, the A-share market as a whole maintains an optimistic and upward strategic expectation of upward movement and gradual recovery, benefiting from the continuous recovery of the domestic economy and the active support of policies. The in-depth reform of the capital market and the continuous expansion of opening up to the outside world will continue to attract long-term capital and enhance market vitality. But he also cautioned that "investors also need to be wary of various risks." ”

Editor-in-charge | Zhang Yufei

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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: 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#1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{-- weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 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157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}.rich_media_content em{font-style:italic}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}: root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}