The world has experienced a period of peace in the decades since World War II, and although there have been many regional wars during this period, it has been relatively calm on the whole.
Even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, and NATO countries have said that they will end, it does not indicate that the third world war will come.
It is precisely because the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a slow process that countries around the world have plenty of time to decide whether and how they will end up, but it will not trigger everyone to participate in a frenzied world war.
Just like a martial madman rushing out with a knife and cutting people when he sees them, he will never give you time to hide and think, and the person who is cut is innocent, and he will join the fight with anger for a while.
However, two rational people cut each other, which is definitely not the case. One said: Shuai Guo, I want to slash you, don't cry out in pain. The other said: Sister Liang, I want to slash you too, don't call brother. In the end, a pair of dog men and women ran to Pinduoduo and slashed each other.
Great Russia and NATO have successively said that they would throw nuclear bombs at each other, and it is this kind of mutual beating by rational people, both of whom are left to sit down and drink after the fight. This Russia-Ukraine war has given both Russia and NATO a spiritual catharsis and released a lot of anger. From the initial frenzied confrontation between the two camps of Russia and NATO, to the final rational realization that it is impossible to completely eliminate each other through this war alone. In the end, the two sides had no choice but to revert to limited geographical confrontation.
At present, both sides have realized that no matter how much NATO raises the stakes on the Ukrainian side, how many weapons it assists, and how many mercenaries it sends, it will not be able to prevent Ukraine's defeat on the battlefield in the end. So Macron stopped sending people after killing hundreds of French mercenaries, and Germany made it clear that it would not give Ukraine Taurus missiles.
What NATO has to worry about now is how NATO and Russia will divide the interests of Ukraine after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the future. NATO's participation in the war also costs money, and if it does not recoup its capital and earn enough war interest, how can it be done?
Russia uses thermobaric bombs
Now for a few people sitting at the table, how to distribute the Ukrainian in the bowl. It is estimated that there is no possibility for Russia to eat alone, after all, this bowl of rice is not as soft as imagined, a bit sandwiched, and it cannot be swallowed completely raw. Moreover, the Americans have already controlled the assets of state-owned enterprises and state resources in Ukraine, and the United States will definitely not do it if they do not give the United States some practical benefits after the war.
Russia declared early on that it was not interested in Lviv, that is, whether Poland, Hungary and even Romania took the opportunity to claim the territories occupied by Ukraine after World War II, Great Russia did not care. By taking advantage of this statement, Great Russia has divided the anti-Russian spirit of some countries within NATO.
As for the fact that Great Russia throws out a list of nuclear strikes from time to time, the first is Great Britain, the second is Poland, and the third is Germany...... Either don't mention the big old America, or the back in line, or tell the United States - big brother, the sister-in-law didn't plan to scratch your legs when she fought, you can rest assured that your two old men (Trump and Biden) will fight for Japan (the president of the United States).
As soon as NATO saw that Russia would play like this, let go of its masters, and specialize in fighting its servants, it would conduct military exercises near the Russian border, and it was said that it would also practice with nuclear bombs, and even make animations of bombing Russia with nuclear bombs.
Therefore, the blackmail of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO is a big joke, which is specially played for Ukraine in the bowl to make it poor.
I'm not saying that the third world can't happen, but that the trigger for the third world war can't be the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Because the Russia-Ukraine conflict has dragged on for too long, all parties involved have been prepared.
When the two world wars broke out, the countries of the world were not prepared, both because unexpected events became the trigger for the world war. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made everyone mentally prepared, they have all become rational people, and they have seen their own shortcomings, but this time they can't fight a world war.
Israel uses white phosphorus bombs
Believe it or not, let's look back at the history of the detonation of the two world wars.
The trigger for the First World War was the Sarajevo incident. On June 28, 1914, in Bosnia, in the Balkans, the Serbian young Gavrillo Princip assassinated the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, Archduke Ferdinand and his wife. This contingency led directly to the declaration of war by Austria-Hungary on Serbia, which led to World War I.
The trigger for World War II was the German raid on Poland. In 1939, Germany tore up the Treaty of Versailles and launched a blitzkrieg to attack Poland, causing war throughout Europe.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was an emergency at the beginning, and if it had just broken out, NATO countries would have ended one after another, and the leaders of various countries would irrationally expand the war and escalate the level of military strikes, and the third world could break out. But now the trigger for the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been lost forever.
Of course, it will not break out this time, and it is difficult to say whether it will break out in the future. Generally speaking, in a state of nuclear equilibrium among the world's major powers, it is difficult to have a worldwide scuffle, a major war.
In the future, even in the event of a world war, nuclear weapons cannot be implemented as easily as conventional weapons. Because before human beings complete the Martian migration, it is not cost-effective for the political leaders and military chaebols of various countries who want to start a world war to suffer the disaster caused by nuclear weapons on the same earth as ordinary people.
Of course, a world war without nuclear weapons will not be less lethal. Weapons of mass destruction such as depleted uranium bombs, white phosphorus bombs, and thermobaric bombs are used, and their war lethality is second only to nuclear weapons.
The United States and NATO use depleted uranium shells in war
But this is not to say that countries around the world do not need to guard against nuclear weapons. In future wars, the most likely thing to be a nuclear war is the lack of strategic depth and state terrorism.
The former, such as Japan and Israel, have no strategic depth in their homeland and cannot withstand a nuclear attack, but their governments are extremely belligerent. Although the two small countries are now under certain suppression, once they have nuclear weapons in their hands, they will quietly and suddenly carry out nuclear bomb attacks, gambling on the fortunes of the country -- if they lose the bet, they will destroy the country, and if they win the bet, they can compete for a strong international status.
Believe it or not, if Japan uses the Fukushima nuclear power plant to leak and discharge nuclear wastewater, and is preparing to leave it for 30 years, is this not another form of nuclear war temptation? If all countries in the world can endure it, it will be logical for Japan to escalate even more provocations in the future.
The latter, such as the international terrorist ISIS, was originally a terrorist organization designed to achieve human goals, and when this organization was at its strongest, it also felt the benefits of state power, and once it was lost, people with ulterior motives came to the door and stuffed nuclear weapons to kill people with knives, which may cause the violent terror of a world-class nuclear bomb attack.
Japan discharges nuclear wastewater
In a word, if there are many normal countries among the world's major countries, the risk of nuclear war in the world will be small, and if there are too many ambitious small countries in the world, the risk of nuclear war in the world in the future will be extremely great. In the final analysis, international affairs still need to be managed through mutual cooperation with the P5, and it is unreliable for small countries to try to manage the big world.