In recent years, the global semiconductor industry has become increasingly competitive, especially in the field of lithography machines. ASML in the Netherlands has firmly grasped the dominant position in the market with its advanced technological advantages.
However, as the Sino-US trade friction continues to escalate, ASML has come under pressure from the United States and has begun to restrict the export of lithography machines to China. This has undoubtedly brought huge obstacles to the development of China's chip manufacturing industry. Fortunately, Chinese companies are catching up, striving to achieve technological breakthroughs and break Western monopolies.
At a critical moment, ASML announced the completion of a luxury order worth 215.3 billion yuan for 450 units last year, which attracted many foreign media to begin to advocate that the Netherlands will always be the god in the field of lithography machines, and the Chinese chip market has disappeared.
Industry-leading ASML
ASML's success ultimately depends on technology. The Dutch company has long been ahead of all its competitors in the field of lithography machines, especially in the field of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography technology.
Conventional lithography machines use visible or ultraviolet light, both of which have relatively long wavelengths, making it difficult to engrave particularly fine circuit patterns on silicon wafers.
But ASML's EUV lithography machine is different. It uses a light source with an ultra-short wavelength that can reduce the linewidth of the chip to less than 2 nanometers. It's more accurate than ever!
With this unique skill, ASML is simply the "big devil" in the field of high-end chip manufacturing. The most advanced 2nm process chips on the market are basically manufactured by their EUV lithography machines.
Those chip manufacturers who want to have such an "artifact" must pay the price. The cost of one unit is hundreds of millions of dollars. What a domineering!
ASML is so awesome, orders must be endless. Let's just say that in 2023, only 20 2nm EUV lithography machines will be sold, totaling 54 billion yuan.
Doesn't that sound a little scary? It not only shows ASML's lofty position in the industry, but also reflects the global chip industry's desire for EUV lithography technology.
However, ASML's supremacy will inevitably cause some concerns in the industry. The first is the price problem, which is often hundreds of millions. This is undoubtedly a heavy burden for small and medium-sized chip companies.
In the long run, it is likely to exacerbate the Matthew effect in the chip industry, and in the end only super manufacturers can afford it.
The second is the issue of export restrictions. ASML has strict restrictions on the export of lithography machines from certain countries and regions, which has affected the development of the local chip industry in these countries.
Take China, for example. It was originally a major consumer of semiconductors, and the electronics manufacturing industry chain was also very complete, but in the most cutting-edge chip manufacturing technology, ASML has always been stuck.
In the past few years, as the Sino-US trade friction heated up, ASML also followed suit and imposed a "ban" on Chinese companies. In the end, it softened, and it was retracted a few months later, making China's chip industry suffer.
There is also the issue of risk. ASML is so powerful that every aspect of the chip industry relies on it too much. If something happens one day, or another trade war breaks out, the global chip supply chain is likely to be affected.
Downstream mobile phone, computer, and automobile companies may complain. Therefore, this abnormal development of the chip industry chain is actually very dangerous.
Because of this, breaking ASML's hegemony and promoting the diversified development of lithography machine technology has become a top priority for the entire semiconductor industry.
Whether it is Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea or China, they are stepping up the deployment of cutting-edge lithography technologies such as EUV, vowing to fight a bloody way in this field.
Local companies such as Shanghai Microelectronics and China Microelectronics are attacking ASML with all their might.
Of course, it is not easy to overtake on a lithography machine track with such a deep accumulation of technology. After all, from the shield machine to the C919 large aircraft, there are still many stories of transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry in overcoming difficulties?
Why are chips monopolized? There is "trouble" behind it
The U.S. and China are increasingly competing in high-tech areas, especially in the critical area of chip manufacturing. The match between the two sides has entered a white-hot stage.
To put it bluntly, the lithography machine used to make chips is used to "draw circuits" on silicon wafers. It's similar to the printers we usually use, but millions of times more accurate. Without advanced lithography machines, manufacturing high-end chips would be a dream.
The problem is that the most advanced lithography machines are basically in the hands of a few countries such as the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan. In particular, the Dutch company ASML is a well-deserved leader in the field of lithography machines.
The United States is well aware of the importance of lithography machines, so it has been looking for ways to limit China's access to these equipment. Some time ago, the United States introduced new export control measures, prohibiting global companies from exporting certain types of chip manufacturing equipment to China unless specifically approved by the U.S. government. The move has poured cold water on China's chip-making ambitions.
What is even more unpleasant is that the United States has actually reached out to other countries this time. They actually use this technological advantage as a weapon to force other countries not to sell equipment to China.
From the U.S. perspective, as long as even one U.S.-made screw is installed on the equipment, they have control.
Take, for example, ASML in the Netherlands. Since 2019, the Dutch government has not allowed ASML to sell the most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography machine to China under the coercion and inducement of the United States.
Under hard and soft pressure from the Biden administration, the Netherlands and Japan agreed to restrict the export of certain advanced equipment such as deep ultraviolet lithography machines to China.
ASML and some companies in Japan had to obey the orders of the United States. Although some European countries know in their hearts that the intentions of the United States are not pure, they are still afraid of offending this big brother, so they can only reluctantly agree to restrict China.
Although ASML claims to comply with local laws and regulations, it is certainly itchy in private. You know, China is their big customer, and now their business is suddenly cut off by the United States. Can you not be angry?
But unable to resist the big fists of others, ASML could only swallow its anger, saying that it could no longer supply to some chip factories in China.
The reason why the United States did this is because it is worried that China will use these equipment to develop its military and threaten its national security. But in fact, they fear that China's technological power will grow and threaten their dominance. After all, chips are the lifeblood of modern technology. Whoever has the chip has the right to speak.
But Chinese chip companies are not vegetarians either. In August 2023, Huawei made big news when it launched a new mobile phone with a domestically produced 7-nanometer chip.
You must know that 7nm is one of the most advanced chip processes at present, which only TSMC can do before. Analysts speculate that this is likely to be a breakthrough achieved by SMIC using a Dutch deep ultraviolet lithography machine.
When the United States saw this scene, it immediately panicked. They realized that if they didn't act, China would catch up. As a result, new export control measures were quickly introduced.
Although these measures will not immediately destroy China's chip manufacturing industry, they will indeed create a big obstacle to our development, especially in the most advanced fields.
As ordinary people, we may feel that the chip is far away from us, but in fact, it has long penetrated into all aspects of life. Mobile phones, computers, cars, which one is inseparable from chips? It can be said that whoever masters the chip will master the future.
Although we have differences, we must not give in. After all, the chip industry is not only related to the economic lifeline, but also related to national security. On this battlefield where there is no smoke of gunpowder, China must have its own place.
Breaking through the "stuck neck" is just around the corner
The dilemma faced by China's chip manufacturing industry is that the lithography machine is a typical "stuck" link. As we all know, the performance and advancement of lithography machines directly determine the level of chip manufacturing.
For a long time, the field of lithography machines in mainland China has been highly dependent on imports, especially high-end lithography machines, which are basically monopolized by a few international giants such as ASML in the Netherlands. This situation of being controlled by others has always been a hidden concern for China's chip industry.
Recently, ASML delivered 450 lithography machines to the world in only four months, with a revenue of 215.3 billion yuan. This income is simply astronomical! And 29% of its sales came from the Chinese market, which was mainly due to the performance in the fourth quarter.
It seems that while the Chinese market is being choked, it has become ASML's "cash cow", playing an important role in its global business. Therefore, it has become a joke for foreign media to say that China's chip boom has ended.
After all, you don't have to guess what foreign companies think, because everyone's interests are the same. ASML rushed to ship to China before the ban went into effect, for fear of losing this piece of fat.
But in the blink of an eye, it issued a statement that it would stop supplying advanced DUV lithography machines to China. Isn't this kind of backsliding attitude the same as turning one's back on money and people?
Fortunately, everyone is aware of the importance of technological independence. While they are still purchasing ASML lithography machines, this is more of a stopgap solution to an immediate need. Everyone knows about this Dutch company.
ASML did make a lot of money this operation. Chinese companies are not idle, taking the opportunity to reserve a considerable number of lithography machines. As long as we focus on increasing the production capacity of domestic mature process chips, we can meet most of the demand in the Chinese market.
Historically, we have overcome the "stuck neck" problems such as "hand-torn steel" and "shield roadheader", and have experienced a difficult and tortuous exploration process. Even in the face of the technological blockade of the West, we have finally achieved breakthroughs in key technologies by virtue of our determination to be self-reliant and the courage to innovate. Now in the field of chip manufacturing, we also have a lot of potential.
Of course, we must also be soberly aware that catching up and surpassing in cutting-edge fields such as lithography machines is not an overnight thing. ASML and other international giants have decades of first-mover advantages in technology accumulation and industrial chain improvement.
However, Chinese companies still have varying degrees of shortcomings in many core components, materials, software algorithms, etc. To achieve breakthroughs in these aspects, it is necessary for enterprises, universities, scientific research institutions and other parties to work closely together to form a joint force in talent training, technology research and development, industrial application and other links. At the same time, the state also needs to provide long-term and stable support in terms of policies and funds to create a good industrial ecology.
conclusion
In the context of the accelerated reshuffle of the global chip manufacturing industry, we must clearly understand our own shortcomings and shortcomings, increase R&D investment in key core technologies, and lay a good foundation in every link of the industrial chain; On the other hand, we must maintain strategic focus, unite the strength of the whole nation, and forge ahead in the face of adversity. Who will win this war without gunpowder, let's wait and see.