In 2024, the real estate industry is waiting for a small spring, but the spring has not yet arrived, but it is waiting for the darkest moment of the industry model - Vanke.
As a top student in the real estate industry and the last line of defense in the industry, Vanke, which has the backing of Shenzhen state-owned assets, has fallen into a new round of debt extension since March.
01
On February 28, it was rumored that Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke, went to Beijing to discuss the postponement of debt exercise with Xinhua Asset Management and other insurance companies.
On March 8, the two sides negotiated again, to put it simply, Vanke wanted the creditors to extend the billions of debts and not to announce the early maturity of the loans, otherwise there would be a thunderstorm, and the creditors wanted Vanke to increase the asset collateral to reduce their own risks, but the two sides still did not negotiate.
Then, Vanke ushered in the moment of "double killing of stocks and bonds":
On March 19, many of Vanke's domestic bonds fell, among which "20000000000" fell by as much as 11.78%, and Vanke's price-to-book ratio was only 0.46, falling to a ten-year low.
For a while, black clouds overwhelmed the city, and crises were lurking, could Vanke not be able to survive?
Things are not so simple, the latest news on March 15, Vanke finally waited for a rush from state-owned real money.
On the same day, Vanke A announced that the company's largest shareholder, Shenzhen Railway Group, would subscribe for no more than 30% of the shares of CICC SCPG Consumer REIT through strategic placement.
According to public information, the issuance scale of this public REITs is about 3.559 billion yuan, and the total number of shares raised is 1 billion, which means that the subscription amount of Shenzhen Metro is about 1 billion yuan, which will become the largest investment in the domestic state-owned assets system to consumer REITs so far.
At the critical time, it has to be backed by the backer, although this money is not much, but the symbolic meaning is huge.
As we all know, behind the Shenzhen Metro is the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which has repeatedly verbally supported Vanke since November last year, and this time it finally has substantial financial support, which can be regarded as a reassurance to the creditors behind Vanke.
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In addition to the fate of state-owned assets, Vanke, which has always been proud and unwilling to sell its assets, also began to bow to reality and save itself with a broken arm.
On March 19, Vanke mortgaged its landmark in Shanghai's People's Square, Central District Square, to Industrial Bank and obtained a loan of 1.4 billion yuan.
Earlier, on February 9, Vanke sold its flagship commercial project, Shanghai Qibao Plaza, at a 7% discount price, and was acquired by Link for 2.384 billion yuan. You must know that this project has contributed the most revenue in Vanke's business territory, with a revenue of 408 million in 2022.
Sell, sell, sell, all of these moves send a signal that Vanke urgently needs to withdraw funds to cope with the upcoming peak period of debt servicing.
In addition, Vanke has also begun to carry out organizational reforms in a big way.
In February, the number of 12 companies in the southern region was cut to 8, and in March, the number of companies in the Shanghai region was cut from 15 to 8, and in less than a month, Vanke Group directly reduced the number of companies in 11 cities.
In 2022, the marketing volume of the two regions will be 240 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of the entire group.
Therefore, relying on the backing of state-owned assets, the sale of assets and continuous organizational reform, Vanke has not yet fallen, and at the same time, as the last hope of real estate and the representative of confidence, it cannot fall, and the industry cannot afford this impact.
So how long will it last in the future?
The bombing group looked at Vanke's upcoming debts, and the situation was not optimistic.
Not long ago, Vanke just completed a foreign debt of 620 million US dollars (about 4.5 billion yuan) due on March 11, followed by a medium-term note "21 Vanke MTN002", which is due for redemption on April 29, and the bond balance is 2 billion yuan.
According to incomplete statistics, the total debt required by Vanke in the next year may exceed 44.5 billion yuan!
As a comparison, Vanke said in November last year that if the pre-received regulatory funds are excluded, the current funds in hand are 60 billion, and if there is no change, it will be no problem to survive for a year, and it will be difficult to say after that.
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Looking at Vanke's debt turmoil, it reflects the current problems of the entire industry.
The most fundamental crux of the problem is that the expectations of the property market have changed.
According to the data, from January to February this year, the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 454.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 50.7%, which was directly cut in half, and the new housing market can be said to be full of sorrow.
Although there has been a local property market in Xiaoyangchun, on the whole, the short-term rejuvenation cannot stop or cover up the process of the property market still falling.
As we all know, Vanke shouted "live" very early, and many strategic predictions were done correctly, but they were not resolutely implemented.
In other words, the current market situation is even worse than the worst scenario that Vanke predicted at the beginning.
For example, since 2023, Vanke has still spent more than 50 billion yuan to acquire land in the open market.
Dare to take the land, which shows that Vanke still has confidence in the property market at that time, but the land payment of more than 50 billion yuan, coupled with the construction and installation costs required to build the building, and the current state of these newly started projects is either unsellable or still under construction, which makes Vanke's already stretched cash flow even worse.
Today, Vanke, which realizes the seriousness of the problem, has been working very hard to remedy it: grasping sales, promoting payment collection, and increasing the intensity and speed of project payment collection.
However, it is no longer realistic to expect a rapid recovery in sales to solve Vanke's current crisis.
In this context, for Vanke, the more realistic rescue idea is still to bundle state-owned assets more deeply so that it can take out funds and stabilize financial institutions to increase credit instead of withdrawing credit.
If you want to complete these two actions, realistically, not only Vanke can't do it yourself, but even Shenzhen state-owned assets can't do it, so you need instructions from a higher level.
Fortunately, the top management seems to have realized!
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