Signal, there are so many "melons" today! and they are still so big?
Author | Xie Xiaobai
Do you remember the last time the "Biosafety Bill" was mentioned, the members of the House of Representatives who pointed the sword at WuXi AppTec?
Today, there is news in the intraday that the sponsor of the proposal announced his resignation.
Affected by this news, Hong Kong stocks WuXi Biologics rose 9%, and WuXi AppTec rose more than 7%.
There are so many proposals in the United States every year, but the approval rate is only 2.5%, and the sponsors of the proposals have all left, what is the passing rate of the "Act"?
From this point of view, CXO and innovative drugs seem to be working again.
01
I posted the news in the "circle" for the first time, and said that "you can increase your position", but many friends said:
I'm scared, I'm afraid!
I believe this is not an isolated case, but a universal phenomenon, which illustrates a problem:
Confidence collapses for a moment, but rebuilding ....... It's not a day's work.
So the question is, will the CXO represented by WuXi AppTec really be smashed with a "stick"?
WuXi's main business is to sell the labor force of engineers, and its prospect has never been whether it can be decoupled, but whether there is a region in the world that has the ability to take over?
In fact, looking at the world, both in terms of quantity and quality, we have not yet found a region capable of relaying. (Imagine which university does not have bioengineering and bioengineering majors).
Hard decoupling is not possible, and soft decoupling is also difficult.
Take 10,000 steps back and say, if WuXi really can't do it, then there will be A, B and C.
After all, there are a large number of biological engineers, and the price is reasonable...... There is no second in the world, this is a reality, and at present, it is difficult to change in a short period of time.
Unless AI+ robots can replace engineers to do experiments and run processes, it can become a reality.
Otherwise, the world's bioengineers will have to rely on China, which is a fact that is difficult to change.
Based on this, with the improvement of the marginal relationship between China and the United States, there is a high probability that the sector will gain considerable certainty.
So why don't you dare?
02
I was pressed on the ground over and over again and rubbed a lot, and I had a psychological shadow.
In my opinion, the logic of CXO is much harder than that of real estate, but ....... People can write short essays.
Two "little essays" that go viral in the market today.
Essay No. 1: All first-tier cities have released purchase restrictions.
Although it is said that it is being studied, everyone knows that with the current situation of "dead horses as live horse doctors", it is only a matter of time before it is released.
The difference is only that: is it a shame to cover it, or is it a hard work?
The specific time, I personally think it will be before the Qingming Festival, after all, this time is suitable for telling "ghost stories".
Essay No. 2: Measures to rescue real estate projects more actively.
There are a lot of details in this essay, such as urging banks to speed up approvals and provide new loans to cash-strapped real estate companies.
Another example is the requirement for banks to complete loan disbursements for previous whitelisted projects by the end of June.
Obviously, this is for Vanke.
However, due to the excessive movement, the No. 2 essay will obviously not land very quickly like the No. 1 essay.
And even if it does land, there is a high probability that the details will be greatly adjusted.
After all, there are too many games behind this.
So does that mean real estate is OK again?
03
非也非也。
Although many big Vs are singing more today, let's take data as an example:
From March 16 to March 22, 3.26 million square meters of new housing were sold in 35 cities, an increase of 34.6% month-on-month.
The transaction volume of second-hand houses in 15 cities was 1.98 million square meters, +12.3% month-on-month.
But just looking at the transaction and not talking about the price is obviously a hooligan.
What about the current transaction price?
I've compiled the following data (as of February):
Hong Kong is down 23% from its peak (2019.6) and back to July 2015 levels;
Shenzhen is down 35% from its high point (2021.5), returning to the level of September 2016;
Shanghai is down 20% from its high point (2022.6), back to July 2016 levels;
Guangzhou is down 20% from its high point (2022.6), returning to the level of November 2017;
Beijing is down 19% from its high point (2023.5), returning to December 2016 levels.
As shown in the figure below:
The numbers don't lie, and when combined with the transaction price and volume, we will find:
This is most likely dumping!
From this point of view, how effective will it be to implement it according to Composition No. 1 and Composition No. 2?
04
I think it will reduce the worry about the thunderstorm of real estate companies to a certain extent.
But it won't change the underlying problem, and it will even put pressure on banks.
Based on this, I don't think there is a possibility of a reversal in the real estate sector, only a transactional opportunity.
There are a lot of things, you have to look at it in all directions, don't be one-sided.
Back then, Sun Shangxiang heard Liu Bei say that his second brother was invincible in the world, so he married him, and only after marrying did he know that the "second brother" Liu Bei said was Guan Yu.
05
Finally, back to today's market, even after several struggles with mysterious forces, the market still handed over more than 4000+ declines.
Moreover, it is even deeper than the fall on Friday!
It can be seen that the relevant parties are still trying to control, and they are still releasing benefits.
So what do you think about tomorrow?
A reverses to pick up people
B Reversing and hitting someone
C hit-and-run
D Pick up people on the bus, but departure is not guaranteed
06
We think that option D is highly probable.
After all, some recent economic data is picking up, such as:
According to CME observation, excavator sales in China are expected to increase by 6.5% year-on-year in March 2024, better than the 25% year-on-year decline in January and February.
The main reasons are as follows:
In March, the central government released a plan to promote large-scale equipment renewal
Infrastructure investment continues to improve
The decline in real estate development investment narrowed
And this Sunday, the March PPI will be released, which will most likely surprise us.
Coupled with the recent increase in mysterious power, 300 and 50 ETFs have obvious buying actions.
Based on this, we believe that the market will most likely continue to toss in the range of 3000-3100 points.
Therefore, we have chosen today: to add to our position.
epilogue
There are a lot of melons today, and the impact is also great.
But years of professional training have given me an intuition: to listen to thunder in a silent place.
The scene is always said beautifully, what is behind the beautiful scene words?
"Romance of the Three Kingdoms" has already done a good demonstration: the scene says "Lu Bu among the people, the red rabbit among the horses"; in fact, "Fang Tian draws a halberd and stabs his father-in-law".
Everyone has the conditions, join my "circle" as much as possible, first-hand information, real operation, you can't buy a loss, you can't be fooled.
Every day, let the compound interest roll.
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