Fuel vehicles will not end their lives, they will only die suddenly, and BYD is in the next big game of chess
In 2021, when the Qin PLUS DM-i was launched, I made an "arrogant" judgment: three years later, there will be no newly developed pure fuel vehicles on the market in the mainstream household field. Now, three years have come to an end, and my prophecy has largely been fulfilled. In the past three years, I have been singing about pure fuel vehicles, and in the process, there are fewer and fewer voices scolding me, and there is more and more sense of identity.
Now that fuel vehicles are in decline, there are not many voices to be heard, and the situation is becoming clearer and clearer, as long as you have the heart to observe, it is not difficult to make a judgment. The layman looks at the bustle, and the insider looks at the doorway. Many people don't know that in fact, as early as 2015, when BYD's first-generation Tang was launched, it had already caused an earthquake in the automobile circle. When the power of the car still needs to rely on the engine displacement pile, BYD achieved Tang's 000 acceleration time in 4.9 seconds, and full-time four-wheel drive, and fuel consumption is lower than that of fuel vehicles of the same level. Such a Tang with power performance comparable to the level of million-level luxury cars is priced at only 200,000 yuan.
However, at that time, BYD was still unknown, and the word subversion could not be shouted, but the shock was already there. In 2018, when the second-generation Tang was launched, Matthias Mullen, then CEO of Volkswagen Group, flew to Shanghai for a test drive for the first time, and was caught speeding off, and on the co-pilot of the Tang was Professor Heizmann, President and CEO of Volkswagen Group (China).
Chunjiang plumbing duck prophet, the core senior management of the automotive field has realized that the changes of the times are coming, and ordinary consumers are still in the dark. Taking 2015 as the node, only BYD was engaged in plug-in hybrid at that time, and in the following years, plug-in hybrid models sprung up like mushrooms after a rain. Although the market share of new energy vehicles was pitiful at that time (around 2019), the brands did not give up on this market, because professional people know in their hearts what the future will look like.
In 2021, Qin PLUS DM-i was born, and the evaluation I gave at that time was that there was no other car to buy in the 100,000 level in the short term, and there was no other car to recommend by car reviewers. Even, Qin PLUS can become a touchstone for car critics, recommending other models of the same level at the same price point is either stupid or bad.
And then the judgment is easy to do, even if consumers don't understand, some car critics pretend to be confused, but the top management of car companies are all understanding people, the generation gap between DM-i models and fuel vehicles is a gap that cannot be erased with lies, they will understand in their hearts that the end of fuel vehicles is coming.
So I made a prediction at that time: in three years, there will be no newly developed pure fuel vehicles on the market in the mainstream household field. This is not difficult to predict, because the full development cycle of a car will take about three years, even if it is an afterthought, and the development is stopped in 2021, then of course there will be no new models on the market in 2024. In fact, since then, the new models on the market are basically new energy, and there are fewer and fewer fuel vehicles. Of course, there are also top irons, such as Nissan's launch of Tanlu this year, pay attention to sales in the future, and see if I overestimate the judgment ability of the top management of these car companies.
On March 16 this year, at the 2024 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum International Forum, Wang Chuanfu, President of BYD, predicted that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise, and may exceed 50% in the future, and traditional fuel vehicles will enter the "countdown to life". In fact, Mr. Wang said conservatively, the time for fuel vehicles to survive is the time for 50% of consumers to change their cognition. The core of the price war in the automobile circle is cognitive warfare. 79,800 yuan of Qin PLUS, the wave of price reductions of the glory version at the beginning of the year, is to change your cognition: the new energy era is unstoppable, the second half of intelligence is shifting gears and speeding up, and the end of fuel vehicles is coming.
Not long ago, some self-media went to Nissan 4S store for an unannounced visit, and mentioned the 79,800 Qin PLUS DM-i in front of Sylphy, and Nissan's sales said: Qin PLUS 55 kilometers of pure electric endurance can also run twenty or thirty kilometers, after running out of power, pulling such a heavy battery, how can pure oil be three times higher than Sylphy 100 kilometers. Just take the consumer for a fool, but in the end you can really sell the car. It can be seen that the current sales of fuel vehicles are maintained by the lack of consumer awareness.
Product catch-up and technological subversion are not completed overnight, but the collapse of lies is in an instant. Therefore, I judge that the sales of fuel vehicles (in the Chinese market) will fall off a cliff at some point, as if overnight, there will be no room for fuel vehicles to survive. After that, the price of fuel vehicles will collapse, reduce production, and disappear. This process should not take more than three years. At that time, fuel vehicles will be the same as mechanical watches, only have collection value, become a few people's toys, and the actual use value will be completely replaced by new energy vehicles.