This week, the main black contract came out of the downturn: iron ore and coke at the raw material end bottomed out and rebounded, and thread and hot coil followed the rebound. The main rebar contract closed at 3,613 yuan/ton on Friday night, up 119 yuan from 3,494 yuan last Friday night.
This week, the price of the spot market has risen: on Monday, it is stable and upward, on Tuesday, it has risen continuously, on Wednesday, the inertia has been raised, on Thursday, the rally has slowed down, and on Friday, it has been stable and upward. The current market status quo is: the inventory inflection point is basically determined, the rigid demand continues to increase, the futures pull up to change the mentality, and manufacturers work together to get out of the trough.
This week, the average price index of steel was 3832, down 40 from last week, and the average price of cost index was 3842, down 70 from last week. Disc profit -10.
This Friday, the output of large varieties of steel was 8.4825 million tons, down 7,500 tons from last week, and the total inventory was 24.4076 million tons, down 652,100 tons from last week.
This week, the average price index of spot hot coils was 3799, down 22 from last week, and the average closing price of futures hot coils was 3790, up 44 from the previous week. Basis 9.
The cost of molten iron in Tangshan is 2640-2775 yuan/ton (before tax), the cost of billet is 3450-3600 yuan/ton (tax included), and the profit is -190--40 yuan/ton according to the current ex-factory price of 3410 yuan/ton.
This week, the inventory of billet in Tangshan was 1.0803 million tons, down 100,900 tons from last week.
This week, the average converted price of spot port ore powder was 778, down 31 from last week, and the average closing price of the main futures iron ore contract was 829, an increase of 20 from last week. Basis -51.
This week, the port iron ore inventory was 144 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons from last week.
Macro level: The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%, raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 2.1%, and is expected to cut interest rates three times this year;
On the supply side: the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces this week was 76.9%, an increase of 0.75% week-on-week, and the average daily output of molten iron was 2.2139 million tons, an increase of 5,700 tons month-on-month. With the repair of the price gap between iron ore and finished products, the long process has basically recorded the profitability of all varieties, coupled with the stimulation of speculation, the output will increase again in the later stage.
Demand side: this week's average daily trading volume of construction steel was 164,400 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from last week;
This week, the macro policy is frequent, the futures black series stopped falling and rebounded, the spot price fluctuated higher, the terminal demand recovered rapidly, the inflection point of the five major finished material inventories appeared, and the market pessimism improved. However, the current inventory is still at a high level in the same period of previous years, the operating rate of the electric furnace has risen after the repair of finished product profits, the downstream procurement demand is not as good as the same period in previous years, a small number of merchants have raised prices to cash out to ease the financial pressure, and there will be more rainy weather in the coming week.