The Houthis reached an agreement with China and Russia, Hamas's top officials were arrested en masse, and the war in the Middle East is about to end? Why is the United States rarely submitting a ceasefire resolution when the EU calls for a ceasefire in Israel?
The Houthis reached an agreement with China and Russia, and the West was "under great pressure"
China and Russia have reached an agreement with Yemen's Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea, as reported by Bloomberg on March 21. According to several people with knowledge of the Houthis, the Houthis have told China and Russia that their ships can cross the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden without being attacked, the report said.
The report also said that the Houthis had previously signaled that they would not target Chinese and Russian assets and that they were targeting ships linked to Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom. However, the Houthis sometimes appear to misidentify certain vessels, so China and Russia may ask the group for stronger assurances.
In exchange, China and Russia may provide political support to the Houthis, such as speaking for them at the United Nations Security Council. For now, however, it is unclear how that support will manifest, but it could include a resolution to block Western targeting of the Houthis. The Chinese and Russian governments and the Houthis have not yet responded to relevant reports.
Although it has not yet been officially confirmed, it is certain that the Houthis do not have subjective hostility towards Chinese and Russian ships, and it is reasonable to sign an agreement with China and Russia on safe passage through the Red Sea. From the Houthi perspective, this has the intuitive advantage of putting pressure on Western countries and Israel.
On the evening of March 14, Houthi leaders announced that they would expand the scope of strikes against "Israeli-related vessels" from the original Red Sea to the southern Indian Ocean, in order to prevent the relevant vessels from circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. The announcement comes just after the first crew casualties in the Gulf of Aden, when Houthi missiles hit a Greek cargo ship called "True Confidence", killing three crew members. Previously, in February, the British freighter Rubimar sank after being attacked, and the crew was safely evacuated.
In the wake of casualties, the U.S. military quickly retaliated. On March 11, the first day of Ramadan, the U.S. military launched six attacks on Houthi-controlled areas, destroying an unmanned underwater ship and 18 anti-ship missiles. But that did not deter the Houthis, who fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Liberian-flagged merchant ship Pinocchio, but did not hit the ship on the same day as the U.S. airstrike.
Since November last year, the Houthis have repeatedly attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea, but there have been no casualties. Some believe that this is because of the poor missile technology used by the Houthis, while others believe that the Houthis and the Iran behind them are exercising restraint. Either way, when crew casualties occur, it means that the bottom line of the United States and the West has been breached. That's why the U.S. military chose the first day of Ramadan to launch airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas.
However, despite the repeated air strikes by the US military, the Houthis did not back down, but immediately announced that they would expand the range of strikes against American, British and Israeli ships. This was followed by news that the Houthis had reached an agreement with China and Russia to provide security for Chinese and Russian ships crossing the Red Sea. Then this is undoubtedly a major negative for the United States, Britain and Israel. Because after the outbreak of the Red Sea crisis, the United States has always hoped that China would intervene and persuade the Houthis and Iran not to blockade the Red Sea again. But the end result is that the Houthis not only ramp up their attacks, killing and injuring their crews, but also reach an agreement with China and Russia that may have political support from each other. In this way, the Houthis will be emboldened to continue to blockade the Red Sea, and if Western ships want to pass through the Red Sea, they will have to take greater risks, and even ships that circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope will face the possibility of being attacked by Houthi missiles.
Israel raided Rafah Hospital, and Hamas top brass was arrested
The Houthi blockade of the Red Sea is directly related to Israel's aggression against Gaza, and on March 21, Israel announced that after a four-day operation against the Shifa Hospital in northern Gaza, it had killed about 140 terrorists from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, arrested about 650 people, including some senior Hamas members, and seized a large number of weapons and intelligence documents during the operation. The Israeli army stressed that the operation was aimed only at Hamas members and that about 6,000 civilians had been evacuated after careful inspection.
The Israeli army also mentioned that all the "terrorists" have surrendered and that the Hamas camp is divided into two factions, one of which has surrendered en masse, and the other has continued to resist. The Israeli army estimates that there are about 50 Hamas elements in the Shifa hospital, and the fighting could be extended for a few more days, 20 of whom may be important figures. The Jerusalem Post reported that the Israeli army had been planning the operation for some time, possibly deliberately waiting for high-level Hamas personnel to assemble before launching the attack. According to an Israeli military source, Hamas may not have expected that the Israeli army would raid hospitals in the middle of Ramadan.
The Israeli army's raid dealt a heavy blow to Hamas, and a large number of high-ranking and key elements were arrested and killed, which may lead to the next resistance action falling into a trough again. And this is bound to cause more irritation for Yemen's Houthi rebels. In support of the Palestinians' continued resistance to Israel, the Houthis are likely to launch more intensive attacks on Red Sea merchant ships.
The European Union called for a ceasefire in Israel, and the United States submitted a resolution to the Security Council
Both the United States and the European Union are worried about the worsening Palestinian-Israeli situation. On March 21, the EU summit was held in Brussels, the capital of Belgium. EU Foreign Representative Josep Borrell said EU leaders would call for a continued ceasefire in Gaza at the summit. Israel must ensure that more aid is brought into Gaza and that civilians are stopped from starving. "Israel, of course, has the right to defend itself, but not to retaliate," he stressed. ”
On March 22, the United States submitted a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council, calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a hostage agreement. In the draft, the United States said that the Gaza Strip should have an immediate and sustained ceasefire for about six weeks, protect civilians and allow all parties to deliver humanitarian relief supplies to the Gaza Strip.
In response to the ceasefire negotiations brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar, the draft says it unequivocally supports ongoing international diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire and release all remaining hostages. Evans, a spokesman for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, said on the 21st that the 15 members of the Security Council will vote on the text of the resolution agreed upon after "multiple rounds of consultations" with the members of the Security Council on the morning of the 22nd. According to UN rules, a minimum of nine votes are required for the Security Council to pass a resolution, and none of the five permanent members can veto.
It is quite rare for the United States to take the initiative to propose a cease-fire resolution this time. Because before that, the United States had voted against the ceasefire resolutions proposed by other countries at least four times, and many people believed that the United States was deliberately shielding Israel, playing the role of "arsonist" and "firefighter" on the other.
This time, however, the United States uncharacteristically took the initiative to propose a cease-fire resolution, and it did so only after consulting with other members of the Security Council. This may indicate that the draft resolution has been endorsed by the majority of Council members and will not be forced to shelve it again because of abuses of the veto.
Hamas has been hit hard, and the fighting in Gaza may be over
Why, then, did the United States take the initiative to propose a cease-fire resolution, instead of continuing to use its veto power to shield Israel, as it had done before? There are two reasons for this. First, Israel has basically completed the ground operation against Rafah, and a large number of high-ranking and key Hamas officials have either been killed or arrested, and the Hamas organization has been severely damaged and no longer poses a threat to Israel. In this case, the entire Gaza Strip is effectively under Israeli control, and there is no need for Israel to impose a tight blockade on it. At this time, the United States can alleviate some of its hatred for itself and Israel by proposing a ceasefire resolution at the right time.
The second reason is that the Houthis are still eyeing each other. As mentioned earlier, Bloomberg reported that the Houthis have reached an agreement with China and Russia not to target Chinese and Russian ships. In exchange, China and Russia may provide political support to the Houthis. Whether this news is true or not, its deterrent effect on the United States is real. Because once confirmed, China and Russia signed this agreement with the Houthis. That means that the Houthis have received some kind of endorsement from China and Russia, and the United States will face a lot of concerns if it wants to take action against the Houthis. The Houthis will also be emboldened by the support of China and Russia, and will launch more and more fierce attacks on US, British and Israeli ships, which will greatly affect Western supply chains and is not conducive to the interest rate cut plans that Western countries are contemplating.
Overall, the fighting in Gaza could come to an end as the Israeli army completes its raid on Rafah hospital and the United States no longer opposes the ceasefire resolution. However, the root cause of the Middle East problem has not been eliminated, and as long as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not resolved, hostility toward Israel in the entire Middle East region will continue. The Houthi blockade of the Red Sea will continue for a long time.