As of March 2024, the second round of the company has basically studied selectively, and this time I will make a summary in order to better guide the future investment operation learning.
I originally selected 21 companies selected in the second round, all of which are based on the third quarter of 2023, with excellent financial statements (more cash on the books, less receivables, less liabilities, and high asset quality), the details are as follows:
However, after more than 2 months of preliminary study, I took the initiative to give up some companies such as the medical and pharmaceutical industry, the military industry, the software industry, the sub-IPO and the real estate fringe industry, and then took a quick look at the business and operation of 9 companies, the specific details are as follows:
It's not what I want, knowledge and action are different, this is my experience is not enough, the knowledge system is not enough, the time is not enough, this is forced by my current situation, I originally wanted to learn Feng Liu, but now it is not like the four, for this result, I first gave myself a score of 60, which is a low score of passing.
For the eliminated stocks, they may rise better in the future, and for the stocks that remain, I have my own reasons to stay, which does not have to be entangled, just like falling in love, but it is not suitable, and each can find their own lover, which is enough.
For the content in the above table, each stock has written about 10,000 words of learning process, full of prejudice and their own understanding, basically typed out word by word, so there is still a little bit of joy, three or four months, I have read so much, it is worthy of praise.
For the photovoltaic industry, I don't like this kind of middle and upper reaches, I like the middle and lower reaches of the industry that can generate stable cash flow, even if I like it, I will not buy, because this industry is still under observation, because the uncertainty still exists, these uncertainties affect my judgment of this industry, so I gave up on him and even gave up the whole industry, but giving up buying is not the same as giving up observation, even if I am myself, there is a small photovoltaic power station in operation, and the daily data also makes me very happy, as long as the sun comes out, I have cash inflowBut I only own this personally, no loans, no financial leases, and at present, it will take about two years to return to the capital.
Yunnan can invest, this stock for me, is not very attractive, because I just started to enter the investment model of this stock, this is very typical, that is, several old businesses to maintain cash flow, some new businesses in the gestation, the old business still has a strong moat but the development potential is not large, the new business looks vibrant, but the implementation of the financial report is nothing, only a pie there. The interesting thing about this model is that in a bear market, this kind of stock always has a bottom area, because it does have a business that is making money, and there is a valuation that can be really valued. But in the bull market, it seems that the whole world is their home, especially when they are in the position of the wind, the stock price can really fly up for a while, for this kind of stock, it seems that it is really in line with Feng Liu when the retail investor is in the midst of changing expectations.
For the above theory, it seems to have a deeper understanding, these stocks, really not a few, you say Yapp shares who knows, the stable production or the fuel tank of the car, is now the first in China, the third in the world, and is a central enterprise, the market value is only billions. YAPP shares and Yunnan Energy Investment, should be a similar model, that is, the business is the foundation, the new business is the highlight, such as the new energy battery pack of the YAPP fuel tank, although it did not produce much benefit, but he has a concept, he is not the same as the concept of the general company, this is a No. 1 market share of the company, the asset statement is still excellent, so it can be said that the logic of the rise, if not rising, it is the decline of traditional oil vehicles, the shrinking of the business, the destruction of the value of the process, this degree is the artistic component of our investment, so there is Feng Liu's tactical thinking can be used in the model。
Ganyuan shares, this stock that I gave up is not because the business is not good, because his valuation is a bit high, it is also a new stock, the entry threshold is low, the industry competition is fierce, the consumer industry is not an industry that can be easily grasped, not that this company is not a good company, but this investment is certainly not so easy to do, so these things that cannot be grasped have become the biggest reason why I gave up buying the stock.
Sanmei shares, this year's rise is very good, subject to the constraints of the supply side, the demand side of the large increase, resulting in the company's performance improvement expectations are very high, so the stock price has turned a little, in fact, do the middle line or this tactical action, I consider the problem is a little biased, these should not be considered I have considered, just like Buffett does not buy tobacco companies, there is no right or wrong, only suitable for themselves only said, so give up this stock is also the initiative, knowledge and action are one.
Haoyue nursing, Baiya shares and reliable shares, are private enterprises under full competition in the market, the production of some necessities, the technical content is not high or low, the threshold is not high or low, the competition is fierce, it seems that it is not a good variety of investment, but from the financial statements, the commonality of these three companies is that the asset statement (it seems) is very good, so there is an interest in the next step of learning.
For these three companies I learned at the beginning, after the study I was still in the confusion of whether the requirements are too low standards, so I wanted to buy a little each, and then I was relieved, indeed these three companies each have their own unique features for me to buy.
Haoyue nursing, OEM-based foundry as the main business, Foxconn in the diaper industry, OEM is just needed diapers for babies and the elderly, and there are also some other tissue and other products, processing or order-based production, there is really no need to worry too much about marketing and new product development, but there is a benefit and a disadvantage, this kind of enterprise can only be compared with high-dividend companies, 5% The dividend yield is still OK, the stock model here is similar to Shenhua, the growth is insufficient but stable enough, there is an expectation of a decline in the birth rate but the market is still large enough, the threshold is not high or low, the bear market is suitable for appropriate layout, the target is to buy 30%, who knows that the back only bought less than 20%, this stock is never anxious because of the fall.
Baiya shares, feel like a hot young man, he is doing the sanitary napkin industry, the brand name is free point, the market is developing, and the valuation is rising, whether or not he makes money, he can describe his mental state, for this company, I am also ignorant, I can't track the experience of recognizing his product sales and quality, and I can't predict the market, just according to his financial statements and market performance, to roughly feel his temperature.
Reliable shares, this is a bit complicated, you say he is a bastard, he has been founding the company for almost 20 years, and he has also achieved the first brand of elderly diapers, you say he is excellent, it doesn't seem to make much money, the main reason is that China's silver economy has not yet reached the so-called inflection point, if it reaches the inflection point (so-called), the performance can develop rapidly, this is quite tempting pie. But the recent turmoil is that the boss and the boss divorced (the divorce in the capital market is generally full of imagination), and there will be a wave of lifting the ban in July, which is the biggest impact on the stock in the short term, so I was scared to lose most of the money, this is also the only stock I lost money this year, I think the loss is still more meaningful, I have to act when I see it, right, it's really not that important, I still have a part of it just to observe this company that you say is complicated and complex, you say simple and simple company, I still observe how to wait for him to blow the to round it。
For the current 3 companies, I still don't see clearly, each has its own blind spots, there is a certain mismatch between odds and probabilities, to be precise, the current position represents my vague attitude, and the accurate position ratio needs my further adjustment.
Liangxin shares, I named him "the current unattended Liangxin shares analysis and learning summary (full version)" is really no one cares, I look at Liangxin shares when there is really no agency to cover this company, I don't know what's going on, anyway, no one reads, it's also strange, more strange Yapp shares are worse than this, haha, no research report of the company is not necessarily not a good company, a good company must have a lot of research reports, this must be the actual situation.
The operation plan written down at that time is basically carried out in accordance with this plan, but for the company's valuation, there are the following questions: the company is indeed developing well, but the biggest disadvantage of this kind of manufacturing company is that it is often upgraded, and the money earned is to update equipment to buy raw materials research and development or buy land to build factories, which I really don't like, don't buy so much if you don't like it, 10%-20% of the position is OK, although the performance can be seen to have a 30% growth rate, or put it.
After this round of study, during the stock market crash, some of my stocks seem to have no bottom line, the fall is very special, hereby record, these stocks that have no bottom line are often those stocks with great strategies and lack of actual profit support, and they cannot all be said to be concept stocks.
Judging from the biggest decline on February 5, 2024, Haoyue Care, which has the lowest P/E ratio, has the smallest decline, several stocks with a P/E ratio of around 20 have fallen by the same amount as the index, and reliable stocks with a P/E ratio of 92 have fallen the most, which fully illustrates that the decline is a nightmare for high P/E ratios and a safe haven for low P/E ratios.
But there is a pro and a cons, from February 5 to today, the highest rise in Yapp not to say, he has been holding back for many years, and now with the help of some concepts can have a 60% increase, 80% of the oscillation range, not comparable, this belongs to the wind, has nothing to do with stock selection.
The most volatile is the reliable stock, which has a 70% oscillation range, which means that there can be 70% of the dip The yield of the lowest fluctuation is Haoyue nursing, which also just shows that the market is good junk stocks are carrying out a crazy rise in excess returns, when the market is poor, junk stocks are also plummeting, there is no bottom at all, this is the stock speculation industry often said that the same way, beaten badly, the income may also be the highest, high risk and high return in the short term, but in the long run, there is still a lot of uncertainty, this kind of stocks, can only play, can not be taken seriously.
So Haoyue Nursing is not the best investment target in the long run, and even Baiya, Liangxin, Nengtou and Yapp have such and such shortcomings for me, and they are not the investment targets I want to hold for a long time, and it is difficult to invest.
Tang Dynasty said that buying and selling is to invest a little longer.
Retail investor B said, buy some and collect the stall and go home and lie down, investment is to collect interest.
Retail investor Feng Liu said, what is the buying and selling point? It doesn't matter, if you want to make excess money, where does the excess money come from? Reversal, change and market, short-term, medium-term and long-term concepts are indispensable.
I don't know what Warren Buffett said yet.
I said, I still agree with Munger, everyone has their own characteristics and circumstances, a variety of thinking to consider the problem, as long as you recognize that buying stocks is part of buying a company, and the value of the company is the discounted future cash flow, these two concepts are enough, as for how to buy and sell, it is a very personal and unanswered question.
Continue to learn about investing and take another step on the road to discounting future cash flows, future judgment is important, how cash flows are generated and destroyed is important, discounting is not so important.