Tonight, the Great Global Exodus

- From the magical and mysterious journey of the world's central banks this week, the dollar turned out to be the clear winner.

Today, there is a significant shift in the global market.

1. The U.S. dollar index, which is the vane of the global market, has risen sharply for two consecutive trading days, with a cumulative appreciation of nearly 1% in the two days, which is huge for a currency. Behind the rise in the dollar, investors are confused, just a day after the US dollar plunged after the Federal Reserve's March meeting, which led to the belief that a rate cut was imminent, and at the time it was believed to be the beginning of a decline.

2. After hitting a record high on Thursday, gold plummeted and is now down more than $50 from its all-time high. The trend of gold prices is understandable, affected by the sharp rise in the US dollar.

3. U.S. Treasury bonds, which have been following the trend of gold, have not followed the decline in gold prices, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is once again approaching the 4.2% mark.

4. The offshore yuan fell sharply by 0.65%, falling below the year's low in just one day, and falling below the 7.22 level, which was strictly guarded. Since December, no matter what happened, the renminbi has been unstable, but today is an exception. I haven't seen such a decline for a long time, is this a depreciation actively guided by the central bank? or...?

This trend looks more like a global exodus, as long as the assets that have risen in the early days are falling today, there is no telling how the US stock market will end up tonight. Judging from the news, today is exceptionally quiet, and no news can explain all this. Powell delivered his latest speech, but did not mention monetary policy.

Is this a downturn, or a big change?

Tonight, we urgently released the "Global Market Q2 Outlook: Making Waves", and the global market is experiencing two major changes and is experiencing a quiet upheaval. In fact, as early as Wednesday, when the dollar plummeted and gold and A-shares rose sharply, we issued a "change warning" in the "Global Market Strategy", warning that the dollar index was facing the risk of rising and gold and A-shares falling.

Highlights from this issue (the global market research framework has changed):

First, at the beginning, I sorted out a "Global Market Change Timetable in the Second Quarter", through which we can see at a glance when to buy and when to leave.

Second, it doesn't matter when the Fed cuts interest rates, because the market is already pricing in it. The focus on Wall Street has shifted to the big direction of the Fed's next round of debate, and if you're still eyeing when to cut rates, you're going to lose money. The analysis of Fed policy starts from the current and future economic situation, which is at the heart of all our analysis.

Third, according to the exclusive global market pricing model, the Q2 points of A-shares, U.S. stocks, gold, crude oil, U.S. bonds and other markets are calculated, with relevant analysis. Is gold going to turn around and plummet? Where is the limit of how high the US stock market is? The renminbi is about to start a round of depreciation? Can China's stock market escape the catastrophe? Here are more profound answers.

Fourth, as is customary, we draw a picture of Chinese stocks that Wall Street investment banks favor and avoid.

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