By the end of 2023, the number of people aged 60 and over in China had reached 290 million [1]. It is estimated that by 2035, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above in mainland China will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30% of the total population [2].
Such a large group of elderly people all have a common and outstanding need - health.
The recently released report on the fourth quarter of 2023 residents' health consumption index shows that the health consumption demand of the elderly population is being released strongly.
The Residents' Health Consumption Index is jointly developed and compiled by Health News Consulting and the Institute of Health Communication of Fudan University with the support of Huatai Securities, and the China Association for the Promotion of Rehabilitation Technology Transformation and Development provides guidance, aiming to use big data to measure the healthy consumption habits of residents in different regions, so as to provide a reference for disseminating the concept of healthy consumption and advocating healthy consumption behavior.
The calculation of this index is mainly based on the consumption big data of JD.com's online platform covering more than 300 cities across the country and involving more than 200 commodities in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The results showed that the health consumption index of products and services, which are closely related to the elderly population (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hyperglycemia), cardiovascular diseases, and rehabilitation nursing, all increased significantly in the quarter.
At the press conference of the index report, Jia Yingnan, assistant director and secretary general of the Institute of Health Communication of Fudan University, said that improving the health consumption level of the elderly group will become an important part of the development of the "silver economy".
According to the "Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy and Improving the Well-being of the Elderly" issued by the General Office of the State Council in January 2024, the silver economy is the sum of a series of economic activities such as providing products or services to the elderly and preparing for the aging stage.
According to relevant estimates, the scale of the mainland's silver economy is currently about 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 6% of the total GDP, and by 2035, the scale of the silver economy is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan, accounting for 10% of the total GDP [3]. In the future, after entering the "era of longevity", the proportion of the silver economy in GDP will further increase. The tuyere of the silver economy is also strongly stimulating the imagination of industry and investment.
"Any economy is a population economy", Wu Yushao, president of the China Association of Social Welfare and Pension Services, believes that with the deepening of the aging population, the development of the silver economy means that the relevant industries must make adaptive adjustments to the aging society, and health is the most critical part, "because health is the rigid needs of the elderly."
Chen Qin, vice president of the Digital China Research Institute of the State Information Center and chief economist of Pulse Technology, further pointed out that the silver-haired population not only has health needs, but also determines their "consumption radius", that is, whether they can produce richer and more diverse consumption. For example, if the elderly want to travel and generate cultural and tourism consumption, they must at least be in good physical condition to ensure that they can go out of the house. In other words, the level of health management of the elderly will indirectly affect the scale and structure of the entire silver economy.
How to grasp the health needs of the silver-haired group?
Intuitively, the health consumption needs of the elderly first depend on their own health status.
According to data from the National Health Commission at the end of 2021, roughly 190 million elderly people in mainland China suffer from chronic diseases. According to the data of the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 16% of the elderly in mainland China have symptoms of disability or partial disability, and 4.8% of the elderly are completely disabled.
In addition, the 2018 epidemiological survey of osteoporosis among Chinese residents showed that the prevalence of osteoporosis in people over 50 years old and 32.0% in people over 65 years old in mainland China was 19.2%.
On the one hand, there is a demand for products and services such as disease treatment, chronic disease management, and rehabilitation care for people with illness or disability, and on the other hand, relatively healthy people also need to take various ways to prevent diseases, delay aging and deterioration of physical functions.
It can also be seen from the resident health consumption index report that in cities with a high degree of population aging, residents' health consumption index for medical products and services related to hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease and other diseases is also relatively higher.
If the elderly population is divided in more detail, different levels of demand portraits can be obtained.
The connotation of the silver economy includes "the aging economy in the old age stage" and "the preparation economy in the pre-aging stage" [4]. Duan Mingjie, the founder of AgeClub, believes that from mature age to old age to advanced age, consumer demand, consumption characteristics and customer acquisition channels are different at each stage, and the categories of consumption are also different. From the perspective of product and service providers, only by defining the crowd accurately enough can we truly grasp the needs of users.
In addition to age, the dimensions of the segmented population also include income level, education level, etc. The income level determines the consumption power of the elderly, while the education level affects the consumption concept and health literacy level. In a survey of health care consumption among the elderly, 37.8 percent of the elderly confused health care consumption with disease treatment [5].
The different buyers of products and services also make the health consumption of the elderly show different characteristics.
According to the report of the residents' health consumption index, there are still healthy consumption patterns such as "filial piety economy" and "gratitude consumption" in the outflow areas. An important factor in the high health consumption index of products and services such as chronic disease management and nursing beds in these areas is that children who go out to work can purchase related products and services to meet the health needs of the left-behind elderly. The report points out that children who work outside the home may tend to choose products with data transmission functions when purchasing health indicators monitoring products such as blood pressure and blood sugar for their parents, so that they can keep track of the physical condition of the elderly in other places.
"Demographic changes will bring about changes in demand, and further bring about changes in the entire consumption scene and industrial chain. Yang Han, executive deputy secretary-general of the China Association for the Promotion of Rehabilitation Technology Transformation and Development, analyzed that taking rehabilitation assistive devices as an example, first of all, it is necessary to choose the required rehabilitation nursing services according to the physical health of the elderly. For example, for the elderly in wheelchairs, sliding doors are more convenient than swing doors.
Under the tuyere of the silver economy, how to upgrade the health industry?
According to the "90-7-3" pension pattern in mainland China, 90% of the elderly are in a state of home care [6]. The key to upgrading the healthy consumption of the elderly is to develop products and services around the home care scenario.
Guan Yonghao, head of the pension category strategy of JD Health Medical Device Division, observed that there are four major pain points in the consumption of current pension users: First, users lack understanding of the products on the market, so they cannot buy. "At present, many professional products for home care for the elderly, such as bath chairs, bidet showers, smart wearable devices, etc., are still relatively low. "Second, the supply of commodities is insufficient, Guan Yonghao said, taking rehabilitation assistive devices as an example, the number of domestic products is less than 5% of that of developed countries. Third, the combination of products and services is not perfect, compared with young users, it is more difficult for silver-haired people to communicate with customer service, and the demand for after-sales door-to-door service is more urgent. Fourth, the supply of professional talents is insufficient, "resulting in the supply of services not keeping up."
In fact, product supply, scientific and technological innovation, smart elderly care, service optimization, talent training, etc., are fully reflected in the "Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy and Improving the Well-being of the Elderly" of the General Office of the State Council.
In Yang Han's view, the development of the elderly health industry also needs to form a strict standard system through the collaboration of the government, industry associations and the industry. "Integrating truly reliable products, service organizations, and service models, many of the needs of the elderly are systematic. Yang Han introduced that in Japan's welfare appliance industry, industry associations have formulated a set of processes from the aspects of standard system, product identification, service organization identification, and talent identification. For example, each store selling welfare appliances must be equipped with two staff with relevant professional qualifications to provide customers with professional and meticulous consulting services, so that they can choose products with different functions, shapes and materials according to the actual physical condition and needs of users.
The willingness and ability to pay is another important aspect related to the upgrading of health consumption and the development of the health industry of the elderly group. "We see that the groups that receive the services of pension institutions are mainly paid by individuals. Li Ying, CEO of Fosun Healthcare Group, said that the elderly's own retirement salary and children's payment are the two main sources of expenses for institutional elderly care services, while in the community home care scenario, the proportion and willingness of the C-end self-payment of care products and services are relatively small.
Li Ying pointed out that the challenge of investing in and operating the pension industry lies in the large investment, long cycle and slow return, and if there is no strong payer, the industrial development will be very challenging in the short term. In recent years, with the gradual intervention of long-term care insurance fund payment and financial support, the nursing services for the disabled and dementia elderly groups have been developed to a certain extent.
Li Ying observed that in the past two or three years, not only the head insurance companies, but also some small and medium-sized insurance companies have begun to pay attention to and intervene in the pension field. Whether it is a nursing institution or a community home-based elderly care scenario, with the leverage of insurance products, from life care to professional medical or rehabilitation care, the supply of products and services is increasing.
"Preparing for the elderly in the pre-old stage" is another growth pole of the silver economy. The health of the elderly population will also affect the quality of the silver economy in the future.
According to Chen Qin's analysis, the rapid growth of China's silver economy is mainly due to the population born during the peak fertility period in the 60s of the last century. "More than 20 million retirees every year have pushed up the silver economy in terms of quantity, but in terms of per capita consumption level, there is no difference between the post-60s and post-50s. Chen Qin believes that the education level and income level of the post-70s generation are higher than that of the post-60s, "do a good job in the health management of the post-70s before retirement, so that their income can be kept above a certain level, and when they enter the old age, they will have a larger consumption radius, and we will be able to usher in a higher-quality silver economy in the future." ”
[1] Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on National Economic and Social Development in 2023 https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202402/t20240228_1947915.html
[2] The mainland is expected to enter the stage of severe aging around 2035, and the elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million http://health.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0920/c14739-32530182.html
[3] The mainland's first "silver economy" policy document was promulgated, and a number of highlights outlined a picture of a happy life in old age https://news.cctv.com/2024/01/16/ARTIMoho2czYu4eJHpORj0I2240116.shtml
[4] National Development and Reform Commission: The silver economy includes two aspects: "aging economy and preparing for https://news.cctv.com/2024/01/22/ARTIFenQpSPCo58UnZoD7cxJ240122.shtml the elderly economy".
[5] Research on the status quo and influencing factors of health care consumption of the elderly from the perspective of "healthy aging" https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jAZITXYIEGIhzdNQEjtwxQ
[6] National Health Commission: Elderly care in mainland China presents a "9073" pattern, and about 90% of the elderly care at home http://m.news.cctv.com/2021/04/08/ARTIwcwUroEXDM4NPKGnmOuu210408.shtml
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