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The central bank speaks out, releasing a heavy signal! When will A-shares get out of the shock, the key is here!

The central bank speaks out, releasing a heavy signal! When will A-shares get out of the shock, the key is here!

summary

1. Last night, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot suggested that there may be three interest rate cuts this year, with U.S. stocks hitting new highs, foreign capital outflows, A-share shocks and pullbacks, and the gold sector leading the rise.

2. Today, the central bank said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that there is still room for the statutory reserve ratio to decline.

3. Looking back at history, A-shares have ushered in shocks in the short term, what will happen in the future?

The truth is vernacular, and financial management is not against your heart

-- This is the 1,100th article of vernacular finance --

 Today, A-shares are on a roller coaster again, and finally the three major indexes collectively closed down.

(Image source:

Oriental Fortune APP, statistics as of 2024/3/2

1. No investment recommendation)

The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan for the fourth consecutive day, and the northbound funds turned around and had a net outflow of 6.02 billion yuan.

On the disk, the rotation market accelerated, gold, agriculture, low-altitude economy and other sectors rose first, while pharmaceutical, photovoltaic and other sectors pulled back, and the media, film and television, and game sectors related to the domestic AI model Kimi fluctuated.

In terms of the rise and fall of popular indexes,

CSI liquor

Up 0.45%

semiconductor

-0.21%

CS new energy car

-1.07%

China Securities Medical

-1.38%

Photovoltaic industry

-1.60%

(Data source: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistics as of 2024/3/21, no investment recommendation)

Gold rose sharply after the Fed released K

In the early hours of this morning, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, keeping the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%, in line with market expectations.

Regarding the question of when to cut interest rates in the future,

The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections and interest rate dot plot for the latest quarter,

It is expected that by the end of 2024, there will be a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points,

This means that the expectation of three rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, remains unchanged

Powell also said that the Fed's policy rate may have peaked and that it would be appropriate to start easing monetary policy sometime this year.

This also dispelled the market's concerns that the Fed would reduce the number of interest rate cuts, and the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose to a record high.

Gold also hit a new high, with spot gold once rising more than 1.2%, hitting a record high of $2,223 per ounce.

The A-share precious metals sector rose 3.05% today, leading the industry sector.

(Image source:

Oriental Fortune APP, statistics as of 2024/3/2

1. No investment recommendation)

Huaan Fund believes that the Fed's March interest rate meeting released a dovish signal, and did not reduce the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year because of the recent high inflation data.

In the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the real interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds has fallen, which has helped the pricing logic of gold.

The central bank has made a bombshell sound, what signal?

Today, the central bank also released an important signal, and there is still room for subsequent RRR cuts.

At the press conference of the State Council Information Office held today,

Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said,

In the next stage, the mainland's monetary policy has sufficient policy space and abundant tool reserves, the statutory reserve ratio still has room to fall, and the downward trend in deposit costs and the shift in the monetary policies of major economies are conducive to broadening the operational autonomy of interest rate policies.

The deputy governor of the central bank also noted that

In terms of aggregate volume, we should maintain a reasonable growth rate and a steady pace of monetary credit and financing.

While flexibly arranging medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and open market operations, the reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points at the beginning of the year, releasing long-term liquidity of more than 1 trillion yuan at one time, fully guaranteeing the supply of liquidity in terms of quantity.

At the same time, we should focus on guiding financial institutions to strengthen the balanced allocation of loans, prevent increased credit volatility and excessive "good starts", and provide stable and sustainable financial support for the economy.

Although the central bank released a positive signal today, the net outflow of foreign capital has had a certain impact on the market's sentiment, with a net outflow of 6.02 billion yuan of northbound funds, coupled with the acceleration of plate rotation, the market has seen some fluctuations.

However, don't worry too much about short-term ups and downs, in the long run, under the certainty of the Fed's interest rate cut, the increase in global liquidity risk appetite, and the expectation of monetary policy easing, you might as well be more optimistic about A-shares.

Review the volatile market after a rapid rise in history

Recently, A-shares have indeed encountered a period of shock adjustment after a rapid rise, so how long will such shocks last historically?

Since 2005, China Securities has reviewed the characteristics of the shock consolidation market after the typical rapid rise of the market in 2005 (up more than 15% in one month), and the four market segments started to rise rapidly on December 31, 2008, September 16, 2010, January 28, 2019, and June 9, 2020, and then peaked quickly, and the shock consolidation market began in the next two months.

The central bank speaks out, releasing a heavy signal! When will A-shares get out of the shock, the key is here!
The central bank speaks out, releasing a heavy signal! When will A-shares get out of the shock, the key is here!

(Image source: China Securities Research Institute "China Securities Construction Investment Strategy Chen Guo: Shock and Consolidation, Grasp the Rhythm.")

", Release time: 2024/3/18, no investment recommendation)

Judging from these four quotes,

After a quick fix in the market, if the economic data fails to improve significantly or the policy fails to sustain the force, the market will generally maintain a period of shock and consolidation.

During the period of shock, we should pay special attention to the change of market expectations for policy.

Whether there is an event that causes a change in the market's risk appetite

China Securities believes that "

After the rapid rise of the index in this round of market, the market remained volatile in the short term. According to past cases, if the economic data does not improve significantly or the policy does not continue to exert force, the market may continue to remain volatile and consolidated, the market hot spots will continue to revolve around favorable policies or events, and the thematic investment market will continue to be active. ”

For the market outlook

direction

, China Securities is more optimistic

Electricity, petroleum, home appliances, nonferrous metals, machinery, automobiles, etc.

In short, the recent market fluctuations, the plate rotation accelerated, rather than because of the short-term backwardness and distress, may as well balance the allocation of optimistic industries, control the position, accumulate steadily, I believe that as long as in the field, there will be a chance to turn around.

Investment metrics

How bad have you ever seen the worst loss in the stock market?

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rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: 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#202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}. rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}table{margin-bottom:10px; border-collapse:collapse; display:table; width:100%!important}@media screen and (min-width:0 ) and (min-resolution:72dpi){.rich_media_content table{table-layout:fixed!important}}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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