Why did the currency of an ancient civilization plummet by 40 percent, and what enlightenment does it have for ordinary people's financial management?

The Egyptian pound has plunged 40% recently, showing the volatility of the global economy. This situation is caused by problems such as hyperinflation, high debt, and foreign exchange shortages. As individual investors, we need to be aware of changes in the global economic environment and avoid risks by diversifying our asset allocation, especially considering the impact of currencies. In addition, it is also very important to have channels that can quickly convert into purchasing power. Currency crashes tend to happen in a short period of time, so it's important to be prepared in advance.

In the dollar-dominated global economic tide, every Fed rate hike could cause serious problems for some economies.

On March 6, the Egyptian currency suddenly collapsed, and the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound plummeted by nearly 40% against the US dollar, and the exchange rate fell to a record low of 50.55 Egyptian pounds per US dollar.

Egypt, an ancient country with a rich history and culture, dates back to 3100 BC. As an important birthplace of human civilization, Egypt has had a profound impact on the development of science, art, religion, and philosophy. However, as much as we would think of Egypt as a powerful country, why is there a currency crash?

#01

The reason for the collapse of the Egyptian pound

In this round of US dollar interest rate hikes, in addition to Egypt, the currencies of several other countries have also collapsed, including Argentina, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Zimbabwe. They have been jokingly dubbed the "Big Five Currency Crash Clubs in the World". The main reasons for their currency collapse were largely the same: hyperinflation, high debt, and an extreme shortage of foreign exchange.

With a land area of 1 million square kilometers, Egypt seems vast. However, deserts occupy 90% of the country, and less than 50,000 square kilometers are truly suitable for human habitation. Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world, with a total population of about 110 million, of which 60% live below or near the poverty line. These more than 100 million people are crammed into the narrow Nile River Basin, which has the highest population density in the world and the least arable land.

In such an environment, Egypt is severely short of food. It is the world's largest importer of grain, mainly from Russia and Ukraine. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, Ukraine's grain production plummeted, and Russia was sanctioned by Western countries and could not export grain. This has led to a sharp increase in food prices in Egypt and a further worsening of inflation. At the end of 2021, Egypt's inflation rate was around 5%, and in 2023, the average inflation rate reached 34.1%.

Egypt has a limited industry, with its income coming mainly from remittances, tourism, and the Suez Canal. The pandemic hit tourism hard, and the sudden Red Sea crisis undermined the canal's prosperity. The Suez Canal once brought tens of billions of dollars in revenue to Egypt every year, but in order to avoid risks, several international shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route, bringing this key waterway to a standstill. Against this backdrop, the diaspora saw the risk of the Egyptian pound depreciating and suspended or delayed remittances to the country.

The domestic economic situation is grim, and the ability to generate foreign exchange income has been continuously frustrated, and the Egyptian government can only continue to borrow. Egypt's external debt reached $155.7 billion in 2023, according to the Central Bank of Egypt. As of April this year, Egypt's foreign exchange reserves were only $34.5 billion, and Egypt will have to repay $29.2 billion in foreign debt in 2024, and the scale of external debt to be repaid in the next two years will be even larger. In desperation, the Egyptian government has no choice but to continue borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But the IMF's borrowing is conditional, one of which is to allow the market to determine the foreign exchange rate. In order to obtain loans, the Egyptian government had to announce the liberalization of exchange rate controls. The collapse was caused by a 40% plunge of the Egyptian pound a few hours after the exchange rate was deregulated in anticipation of a huge depreciation.

#02

Diversified asset allocation

This currency crash has a number of negative consequences for Egypt's own population, leading to further disruptions to economic activity, increased inflation, an increase in the cost of living, a decrease in purchasing power, and a reduction in the standard of living of the population.

As outsiders, we can't relate to their pain. However, we can prepare in advance by observing the events of the Egyptian pound crash to make our financial planning more practical and thoughtful.

First, the collapse of the Egyptian pound has further strengthened our belief in asset diversification. When we talk about diversified asset allocation, we usually think about diversifying between different assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. However, we overlook one important factor, and that is the monetary dimension.

If all the assets we hold are denominated in the same currency, then once the currency plummets, all the assets we hold will plummet. In this incident in Egypt, all stocks, bonds, and real estate denominated in Egyptian pounds fell by more than 40%.

When a currency depreciates significantly, it usually reflects the poor economic situation of the region. As a result, the price of an asset denominated in this currency would itself fall, and the depreciation of the currency would essentially be a double shock. This is also the reason why Egyptian expatriates have chosen to suspend or postpone remittances to the country.

Another factor to consider when considering asset allocation diversification is the inclusion of "hard currency" in assets. Hard currency generally refers to assets that are not susceptible to inflation, and in addition to the currencies of advanced economies, gold, silver, Rolex watches, and, more recently, Bitcoin, which has been very popular.

In the "Big 5 Global Currency Collapse Clubs" that we observe, currency crashes are usually accompanied by high inflation. Holding hard currency can help us offset the effects of this hyperinflation.

#03

Reserve a percentage of the world's currency

When we talk about the collapse of the Egyptian pound, we are referring to the collapse of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar, not the collapse of the Egyptian pound against the British pound or the Canadian dollar. From this, we can understand that money also has a measurement benchmark. In today's world, this measure is the US dollar.

The reason why the U.S. dollar has become a measure of other currencies is that it is widely recognized globally as a world currency.

We are worried about the risk of a currency crash, not only because of the reduction in the book number, but also because of whether the currency will be able to buy the corresponding products and services.

Whether it is a large country that needs to buy high-precision instruments, or a small individual who needs to buy U.S. stock assets, only the U.S. dollar can meet them.

According to Marx, money has five functions: the measure of value, the means of circulation, the means of storage, the means of payment, and the world currency. The function of the world currency is actually the expansion of the means of payment on a global scale, so that the means of payment enter the transnational field. As the world's currency, the U.S. dollar has a strong liquidity and the widest range of products and services that can be purchased. Therefore, in the current credit currency system, it becomes very necessary to hold a certain percentage of the world currency, the US dollar.

#04

Have a channel that quickly converts into purchasing power

Although we have diversified our asset allocation and hold a certain amount of USD, it is not enough. We also need to have channels that can translate these assets and dollars into real purchasing power.

For example, we may hold Bitcoin, but if the country where the currency crashes does not accept Bitcoin payments, and we can't convert Bitcoin into a credit currency with purchasing power that the country accepts, then the value of Bitcoin cannot be realized.

In the same way, we may hold cash in dollars, but if countries with currency crashes do not accept payments in dollars, then there is no point in holding dollars.

When considering channels that convert assets into purchasing power, we need to consider the global reach of such channels. IN THIS REGARD, VISA AND MASTER UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE THE WIDEST GLOBAL REACH. VISA covers more than 200 countries, including Egypt, Argentina, Turkey and other countries whose currencies have depreciated significantly.

In our family financial planning, we need to build in advance to realize our assets, US dollars, into purchasing power through VISA, which is something that many people have not considered.

For example, for the ChatGPT Plus service, which is now popular in the world, VISA cards in certain countries may not be available for purchase. It is worth pondering whether we can get a VISA card from an unrestricted country so that our assets can be converted into purchasing power through this channel.

#05

summary

The collapse of the Egyptian pound was caused by factors such as hyperinflation, high debt, and a shortage of foreign exchange. This fully proves that in a globalized economy, the currency fluctuations of any country can be affected by the global economy and geopolitics. In personal financial planning, we need to take into account the changes in this economic environment and avoid risks by diversifying asset allocation, especially considering the impact of currency. In addition, it is also very important to have channels that can quickly convert into purchasing power.

The decline of an economy is a process that can be observed over a long period of time, but the currency collapse of that economy usually occurs in a very short period of time. For example, within hours of the Egyptian government announcing the liberalization of exchange rate controls, the Egyptian pound suddenly plummeted by 40%. If you don't prepare in advance, then there's really no time to deal with the situation.

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255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{-- weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([ data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme::dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;-- weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}