3000 points are back, but the account has not been returned, what should I do next week?
Reporter: Zhao Yun Editor: Xiao Ruidong
In the past trading week (2.19-2.23), A-shares rose for 5 consecutive days along the bottoming out trend before the Spring Festival.
The good news is that the Shanghai Composite Index, which has been in a row for 8 consecutive years, regained the important mark of 3,000 points, recording a gain of 1.01% for the year.
The bad news is that many investors' accounts have not yet returned to their capital, or to the market value of their positions at the beginning of the year.
This is not to say anything, let's look at a set of data:
1) Wind data shows that as of Friday's close, less than 660 stocks in the market have risen >0 this year, and 4,683 stocks have fallen cumulatively.
2) On the rising side, less than 600 stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the year. Only 266 stocks rose by more than 10%, accounting for about 5% of all stocks.
3) On the falling side, there were about 2,270 stocks that fell by more than 20% during the year, accounting for 42% of all stocks. There were 3,852 stocks that fell by more than 10%, accounting for about 72%.
4) From the perspective of index performance, which reflects the overall market situation, Wind All A fell by 5.62% during the year, and the average share price of All A fell by 15.74% over the same period.
Therefore, an ordinary shareholder who entered the Shanghai Index at about 3,000 points at the end of last year did not discuss sectors, individual stocks, or consider changing positions, and the probability that the account still had a loss as of the close of this Friday is indeed not small.
For example, Hu Xijin, who has attracted a lot of attention on the Internet, said on Saturday that the online rumor that "Lao Hu has returned to his roots" is fake, and "he still loses 31,000 yuan".
Hu Xijin said that it was possible to turn red at about 3,200 points, and before that, he had to accompany everyone to continue the loss. The Shanghai market has recovered 3,000 points, and I don't know what will happen next, but now I feel much more at ease.
Such a situation is naturally related to the structural market so far this year. In a nutshell:
Under various factors, small, medium and micro cap stocks fluctuated;
Heavyweight stocks that have a greater impact on the index are more concerned by the underlying funds and have abundant liquidity;
Under the market turmoil, the high dividend (dividend) strategy is more sought after, which also points to some heavyweight stocks.
Over and over again, the only indices that have recorded gains during the year are the Dividend Index, CSI A50, CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index.
Corresponding to the sector (regardless of concept and industry), it is the bank, the special valuation, coal, airport shipping and the Chinese word head led the rise.
This also means that if investors do not lay out or adjust their positions to the above sectors this year, there is still some distance from the probability of returning to the capital.
However, stock trading is always about looking at the future. There are no stocks that only rise and fall, and only fall but not rise, and with the recovery of market sentiment, it is not impossible for the sectors and individual stocks that are still climbing the pit to turn from falling to rising.
On the other hand, through review, we can improve our cognition and optimize our investment strategy, and find the right rhythm to better and faster return on investment. For example, the shareholders who decisively bought Sora concept stocks this week have undoubtedly gained a lot.
For next week's market, the author has a few understandings:
1) The strength of 8 Lianyang brings more confidence to the market, and it also means that the probability of adjustment increases, but as long as the pullback is benign (does not change the trend), there is value in participating.
2) This week's market funds can be described as "each doing its own thing", and the strength of the high-dividend strategy does not conflict with the rebound of low-level AI. However, after the general rise to a certain point, the market will inevitably diverge, and it should be observed whether the seesaw effect appears.
3) In addition, regarding the dividend index, on a monthly basis, after the appearance of the 4195-point cap in 2015, the box has been running steadily in recent years, with the upper edge roughly at 3300 points (currently 3156.49 points).
And the dividend index itself represents a stable investment idea, which usually does not fluctuate much. As this rally hits the pressure level, the pace of the market may change due to month-end factors.
Next, this article will share all aspects of information as usual for your reference next week.
1. Preview of next week's events
From February 26th to 29th, a blockbuster conference
The Mobile World Congress (MWC 2024), which is regarded as the annual bellwether of the mobile communications industry, will be held in Barcelona, Spain. At that time, more than 300 Chinese companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, ZTE, Honor, and Lenovo will participate in the exhibition.
The lack of a "theme" for this year's MWC is explained by the fact that this year's MWC may be more diverse than in previous years, so much so that officials cannot find a "dominant" direction.
Roughly sort out some of the highlights of the conference——
Huawei launched a full range of wireless 5G-A solutions
New phones from Xiaomi, Honor, OPPO and other manufacturers, as well as Xiaomi SU7
Lenovo may exhibit "transparent screen" laptops, as well as new flagship products equipped with a variety of AI CPUs
Samsung may launch mass-produced triple-fold phones and tablets
February 29th
At 9:30 a.m., the 2023 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin will be released
March 1
China and Thailand have permanently exempted each other's citizens from visas since March
The official manufacturing PMI for February will be released
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission reminds investors that they must check the virtual asset trading platform on March 1
If you do not submit your licence application to the SFC on or before 29 February 2024, you will have to cease your business in Hong Kong on or before 31 May 2024.
Second, the recent news inventory
The China Securities Regulatory Commission has made an intensive statement
1) "Non-intervention in normal market transactions"
According to foreign media reports, the regulatory authorities restrict major institutional investors from net selling stocks at the opening and closing stages, and prohibit institutions from shorting A-shares through stock index futures. In this regard, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission said on February 22 that the regulatory authorities will not interfere in normal market transactions. Recently, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have taken regulatory measures against the abnormal trading behavior of individual institutions in accordance with regulations, which is a measure to perform transaction supervision duties, not to restrict selling.
2) "There is currently no arrangement for IPO back-checking for 10 years"
On February 23, at the press conference of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yan Bojin, chief risk officer and director of the issuance department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that preventing and cracking down on financial fraud and fraudulent issuance is a continuous process, and there is no IPO back-check for 10 years. "In the supervision of issuance and listing, we are continuing to strengthen the whole chain of checks, and strictly punish financial fraud and fraudulent issuance. We will also significantly increase the proportion of on-site inspections of companies planning to be listed, and respond to investors' concerns with the improvement of the quality of listed companies. ”
Sora detonated a new round of AI speculation in A-shares
On Monday, Straight Flush created a new "Sora Concept (Wensheng Video)" section, which at that time had only 10 constituent stocks. By Friday, the number of constituents had increased to 19.
As of Friday's close, Weihaide, which has video image detection and analysis AI technology, has achieved 6 consecutive 20cm daily limits, and its software InsightGPT, which has functions such as picture generation video, has achieved 4 20cm daily limits in the last 5 trading days, and Huayang Lianzhong, which can build a complete AI video workflow, and Guomai Culture, which can generate pictures, videos and other film and television materials on its AIGC digital content generation platform, have won five consecutive boards.
According to the research report of SPDB International Securities, compared with similar models in the previous market, such as Runway and Pika, the generation effect of Sora has been greatly improved, which greatly reduces the threshold and cost of video production, and the most direct impact is mainly on the video industry.
According to the CITIC Securities research report, the Sora model is expected to accelerate the penetration of Wensheng video applications in various industries. According to its estimates, the median potential market space of domestic Wensheng video applications in the field of short video will reach 8 billion yuan in 2025.
Promote a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in
According to CCTV news, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission held on February 23 studied the issue of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and studied the issue of effectively reducing the logistics cost of the whole society. The meeting stressed that the implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods will effectively promote investment and consumption, which will benefit both the present and the long-term.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the renewal and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment, encourage traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and household appliances to be exchanged for the new, and promote the trade-in of durable consumer goods. Promote large-scale recycling and recycling, and strengthen the development of the "replacement + recycling" logistics system and new models. For the trade-in of consumer goods, it is necessary to adhere to the linkage between the central government and local governments, and coordinate and support all links in the whole chain to benefit consumers more.
Regarding AI, the SASAC has made important deployments
On February 19, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special promotion meeting on artificial intelligence of central enterprises on "AI empowerment industry renewal".
The meeting emphasized that the central enterprises should put the development of artificial intelligence in the overall work of the overall planning, further promote industrial renewal, and accelerate the layout and development of intelligent industries. It is necessary to consolidate the basic foundation for development, concentrate the main resources on the most needed and advantageous areas, accelerate the construction of a number of intelligent computing centers, further deepen open cooperation, and better play the role of cross-central enterprise collaborative innovation platform. Carry out AI+ special actions, strengthen demand traction, accelerate the empowerment of key industries, build a number of industrial multi-modal high-quality datasets, and create a large model from infrastructure, algorithm tools, intelligent platforms to solutions to empower the industrial ecology.
Overseas markets
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this week, and Nvidia "rescued" global AI
This week, the Dow rose 1.3%, the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.66%.
Among the seven giants of technology, Nvidia, which delivered a perfect financial report, rose first, and Tesla fell about 4% for the week.
The Japanese stock market hit an all-time high
As of Thursday (February 22), the Nikkei 225 index rose to an intraday high of 39,156.97 points, a record high, and as of the end of the day, it rose 2.19% to 39,098.68 points, also hitting a record closing high. (Note: Stocks are closed on Friday)
The previous all-time high was 38,915.87 points set on December 29, 1989, more than 34 years later.
Analysts pointed out that the sharp rise in the Japanese stock market is ultimately driven by profits, that is, the continuous improvement of corporate earnings. Second, Japan's accommodative monetary conditions have supported its stock price up.
3. This week's market review
The performance of indices, individual stocks, sectors, etc., is partially described at the beginning of the article.
Small and micro cap stocks rebounded significantly this week, with the CSI 2000 leading the gains.
The cumulative number of gainers and losers in the week → 4812:503
In the short term, the average number of daily limits is more than 100, and the height of the board has reached 11 boards.
In terms of public funds, the best-performing funds rebounded by more than 20% this week, and the worst ones fell by less than 2%.
Northbound funds: buy bank stocks this week
This Friday, northbound funds sold a net of 92 million yuan today. Luzhou Laojiao, Changan Automobile, and BYD were net sold for 210 million yuan, 143 million yuan, and 137 million yuan respectively. Ping An of China was the largest net buyer, with an amount of 439 million yuan.
This week, the cumulative net purchase of northbound was nearly 10.7 billion yuan, and the total net purchase this month was 31.865 billion yuan.
On a weekly basis, Kweichow Moutai received a substantial net inflow of nearly 3.7 billion yuan, and CATL, Ping An of China, and China Merchants Bank had a net inflow of more than 1 billion yuan.
On the outflow side, WuXi AppTec was net sold nearly 970 million yuan, and the net outflows of other stocks on the list were less than 400 million yuan.
National Business Daily