The central bank first mentioned the "6-character" new regulations, involving the property market and housing prices

▼ Text|Lao Mo

This data is crucial: according to the CRIC survey, the total sales of the TOP100 real estate companies in 2023 will total 6,279.1 billion yuan, which seems okay at first glance, but it is not the case at all, and it has shrunk by nearly two percent compared with the same period last year.

What is even more unexpected is that the number of both 100 billion and 10 billion real estate companies is decreasing, of which there are 4 fewer 100 billion real estate companies, and 14 fewer 10 billion real estate companies.

Without much thought, as long as we see these figures, many of us will definitely come to the conclusion that "the spring of the property market has finally passed, and it seems that the day when housing prices will fall or even fall sharply is not far off!" Is this really the case?

Let's take a look at this data and we can know the answer immediately:

The top 100 real estate companies with a year-on-year decline in cumulative performance in 2023 accounted for nearly 70%, and 31 of them fell by more than 30%, of which as many as 27 were private enterprises.

To put it bluntly, I think it's hard to sell a house, but it's a good thing to look at it from another angle, because if you continue to follow the previous model, the end result is that no one will get any benefit, and the reason for this is very simple.

According to data, at the end of 2023, the average price of new houses in 100 cities in mainland China will be 16,200 yuan per square meter, and the per capita disposable income will be 39,200 yuan per square meter in the same period.

We know this very well, if we allow housing prices to rise, the rate will definitely be much faster than the increase in wages, and the final result will be that the homeless cannot afford to buy it, and the homeless people cannot sell it.

In addition, many homeowners are investors, and when they can't see the hope of making money, they may cut off the supply on a large scale, which may lead to financial risks, and this is the origin of "the property market affects finance".

However, in 2024, as the central bank mentioned the "6-word new rules": financing coordination mechanism. This is the first time it has been mentioned, and of course the meaning is different, and if we look closely, many banks have already begun to implement it.

Since January 26, the Agricultural Bank of China has approved nearly 5 billion yuan of loans, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has docked more than 2,000 projects, and the China Construction Bank has approved more than 20 billion yuan of pending investment.

To put it bluntly, the core of this new regulation is to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises in the future as much as possible, especially to help them solve the problem of unfinished and overdue delivery. So don't be fooled anymore, this new rule is very important and has a very close connection with us.

Perhaps it is precisely because of this uncertainty that housing prices will remain the focus even in 2024. In fact, no matter when, as long as the house is still a commodity, then we will definitely pay attention to housing prices, in other words, housing prices are the focus.

In fact, up to now, according to the usual practice, the urbanization rate of the mainland's permanent population has exceeded 65%, and the property market has lost the basis for the rapid development of the past, because the people who should buy a house have already bought a house, and those who have not bought a house are willing to wait.

But in fact, there is a mistake behind this, that is, although the number of people who just need it is smaller, but the number of people who improve is increasing, so I think the possibility of a property market crash is not high, and slow decline and stability are the main tone in the long term.

Sum up:

In fact, the new regulations issued by the central bank have already shown that from the time calculation, the whole 2024 will try to help real estate companies solve the financial problem, and the reason behind this is to solve the unfinished, so as to ensure the stability of the property market.

Therefore, for the homeless, in addition to their concern about delivery, the rise and fall of housing prices is of course very important, if the developer has no financial pressure, it is very likely to recover the discount, to put it bluntly, it is a disguised price increase.

On the other hand, for homeowners, if the developer withdraws the discount, will it continue to create an atmosphere that housing prices are likely to rise in the future, and if this is the case, then once the concept of buying up and not buying down continues to prevail, housing prices may really rise.

So whatever the reason, it's no surprise that house prices are in focus in 2024.

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