The A-share Year of the Dragon is off to a good start, why are brokerages collectively weakening

On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, A-shares ushered in a "good start" to the Year of the Dragon. However, the brokerage sector collectively weakened.

On February 19, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 2,900 points. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.13%. In terms of individual stocks, more than 4,200 stocks rose, of which more than 200 stocks rose to the limit.

However, the brokerage sector continued its pre-holiday trend and fell collectively at the open. Capital Securities fell more than 6% in early trading, and the decline narrowed after midday. As of today's close, the Shenwan Securities Index (801193) fell 1.24%, and the Securities ETF (512880) fell 1.14%. In terms of individual stocks, nearly 40 brokerage stocks fell, including Caitong Securities and Soochow Securities, which fell more than 3%, and more than 10 stocks fell more than 2%.

Huang Dazhi, a researcher at the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said to the first financial analysis that a number of positive factors drove the rise of A-shares during the Spring Festival holiday, including the release of a series of favorable policies before the holiday, the outstanding performance of the Spring Festival tourism consumption data and the credit data in January, and other factors to support the continued improvement of the follow-up economic fundamentals.

As far as the securities sector is concerned, a number of interviewees believe that the recent regulatory intensive penalties on securities companies have a certain negative impact.

Huang Dazhi said: "The weakening of the brokerage sector is mainly affected by negative factors such as regulatory penalties. Including the punishment of illegal stock speculation by securities practitioners and IPO violations of listed companies, it forms a relatively concentrated negative factor for securities companies. ”

In addition, a brokerage person said to the first financial analysis that in addition to the regulatory penalties for brokers, there is still uncertainty in the current investors' expectations for the future rise of the stock market, which in turn affects investors' expectations for the future performance growth of brokerages.

Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has further strengthened the punishment of securities companies for violations of laws and regulations, and many securities companies have received regulatory fines. A number of securities firms, including China Merchants Securities, Zhongshan Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Ping An Securities, Huaan Securities, etc., received regulatory fines, and the violations of the above-mentioned securities firms involved illegal stock speculation by employees, violations of private equity asset management business, violations of bond issuance and underwriting business, deficiencies in the management of financial and financial services, and lax control of investment banking business.

In terms of brokerage performance, more than 30 brokerages have released performance reports, and most of them have achieved profit growth. Among them, the performance of some leading brokerages was less than expected, and the performance of some small and medium-sized brokerages was outstanding. BOCOM International Securities' previous research report predicted that the profits of listed securities companies in 2023 will be basically flat year-on-year, and the single quarter in the fourth quarter will decrease by about 33% year-on-year. The earnings growth is mainly due to the year-on-year rebound in proprietary investment income from a low base, but asset-light income and net interest income are expected to decline year-on-year, while the credit impairment provisions of some brokerages are expected to increase year-on-year.

From the perspective of business risk, the non-bank team of Founder Securities analyzed that since the beginning of the year, market volatility has intensified, causing the market to worry about business risks such as stock pledge, margin financing and securities lending, and some investors are also concerned about whether credit risk will have an impact on the statements of brokers. We believe that the current on-balance sheet credit business maintenance ratio of securities companies is still at a high level, the safety cushion is relatively sufficient, and the regulator has previously stated that it will take effective measures to prevent stock pledge risks and ensure the smooth operation of financing business, and the overall risk of credit business is controllable.

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