By February 24, the Russian-Ukrainian war will be two years old. Judging from the current situation, Russia's advantages are still relatively obvious. After months of intense fighting, Ukraine is withdrawing troops from the eastern town of Avdiivka, parts of the country, to better positions, while battle-hardened fighters from Ukraine's elite brigades joined the fighting there, according to the latest Reuters report. In terms of the battlefield situation, Russia is trying to encircle and occupy Avdiivka. Russia has some ambitions for this place, as the capture of Avdiivka is key to Russia's goal of taking full control of two provinces in the Donbas industrial region of eastern Ukraine. Especially at a critical time when Putin is seeking re-election, if he can take this region, he can win the support of more voters.
And Ukraine's defense in the town has become more and more crumbling, because its supply logistics, including weapons and equipment, are threatened. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a televised address that the Ukrainian military is doing everything to ensure that Ukrainian soldiers have enough strength to protect as many Ukrainian lives as possible. At the same time, one of Ukraine's most famous fighting units, the 3rd Assault Brigade, its elite unit, has been urgently sent to Avdiivka to reinforce local forces in Kyiv.
But there are also analysts who say that it is very dangerous to send this ace army to Avdiivka at the moment.
On the one hand, because of the military assistance from the West, there is great uncertainty, even if the Ukrainian military has activated the reserve logistics arteries prepared in advance, but it is still very difficult to supply Avdiivka at present, and the front line is facing a serious shortage of artillery shells.
On the other hand, this ace army took part in the major counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine last summer, taking part in the battle of Bakhmut, which it held out for months before it was captured in May. After many tough battles, this army is exhausted. At this time, being sent to Avdiivka, it is quite possible that the brigade will suffer a huge blow. Therefore, at present, the international community is paying great attention to the Avdiivka region, as well as to the fate of this Ukrainian ace brigade.
Here's a background to the news. Regarding the fighting between Russia and Ukraine in Avdiivka, some people have the impression that Avdiivka is the 2nd Bakhmut. It is here (Bakhmut) that the two sides have engaged in a long tug-of-war, but in reality this place does not have much strategic significance, more of a symbolic meaning. In the end, Russia also occupied Bakhmut.
And the struggle of the two sides in this part of Avdiivka is somewhat similar, so public opinion gives the impression that the second Bakhmut is not. The strategic significance of this place is much more important than Bakhmut. Because Avdiivka is located north of Donetsk, it is the connection point between the two provinces of the Donbas industrial region in eastern Ukraine, which is currently controlled by Russia. If this place is still occupied by Ukraine, it will be like a wedge into the two eastern provinces occupied by Russia. This is a great challenge for Putin to control these two places and maintain stability in these two regions. So all this time Putin has made a huge determination to take this place down. Since last October, Russian forces have been massing heavy forces, with almost 50,000 soldiers trying to advance on the town and surrounding it from three sides. After four or five months of arduous offensive and defensive battles, Putin was almost on the verge of success.
Judging from the current situation, as the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its third year, Ukraine's decline is becoming more and more obvious. According to the latest media reports, on February 17, Zelensky will visit Germany and France again to seek wartime assistance. This is Zelensky's first trip abroad since he replaced Zaluzhny and reorganized the military command. During this visit, Zelensky will also deliver a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, and hold several bilateral meetings on the sidelines, including a meeting with US Vice President Harris, it is obvious that this trip, to a large extent, will determine the US and Western assistance to Ukraine in 2024, and will also affect Ukraine's morale against Russia to a certain extent, which is a big gamble made by Zelensky at a difficult juncture of the war.