Putin said he would prefer Biden to be president of the United States because of his predictability. Trump said he was flattered. Why is Putin openly supporting Biden?
In fact, this is Putin singing a duet with Trump. Putin is ostensibly supporting Biden, but in fact he supports Trump on the side. What Putin wants to express to the Americans is that Biden is very easy to deal with, and on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, the Russian army has the chance to win. As long as Biden is re-elected, Russia has a better chance of winning. Why does Trump feel flattered? Because Trump is seen by Putin as a more difficult adversary. If Trump comes to power, Putin may not be able to beat him.
But we can't look at the surface of everything. Putin's words are all for American voters, and he wants to fool American voters into bringing Biden down and Trump coming up. If the Americans really believe Putin, they will be fooled. As far as the captain is concerned, I am more supportive of Biden's re-election. There are two reasons for this:
One is that Biden is extremely anti-Russian. Although Biden is also not friendly to China, Biden will not concentrate his firepower on China, but regards Russia as his first opponent. In the sequence of Biden's opponents, Russia is in first place, and China is only in second. As long as Biden is in office, the Russia-Ukraine war will not stop, and Russia will be able to attract the strongest firepower of the United States and help China withstand the pressure. If the Russian-Ukrainian war really stops, who will the United States want to deal with next?
Second, Trump is pro-Russian and anti-China. Trump is a non-mainstream businessman president. When he looks at his opponents, he does not measure them by military power, but by economic strength. Trump's core economic policy can be described in one sentence: "Make America Great Again!"
Trump was the first to sound the clarion call for "de-globalization". Before Trump, economic globalization brought huge development dividends to China. U.S. capital, U.S. technology, and U.S. business models, as long as they are civilian, have almost unfettered inflows into China. China has been the country that has enjoyed the dividends of globalization the most in the past 30 years. China's industrial scale has rapidly reached the top of the world, while the United States has entered an era of industrial hollowing.
For example, Nike shoes, Dell computers, Apple mobile phones and Tesla cars are all handled by the Americans, and China undertakes manufacturing by virtue of the advantages of the industrial chain. China and the United States, hello and I. But, here comes Trump. Trump is keenly aware that American manufacturing is failing. Not only is there a large number of unemployment at the bottom of the red neck, but the United States is also suffering from "Made in China dependence". So, what Trump wants to do is to coerce and induce manufacturing to move back to the United States. However, the cost in the United States is too high. Foxconn went to the United States to get a piece of land and held a groundbreaking ceremony, and there was no follow-up.
When Biden came up, he made a slight adjustment and revised Trump's industrial policy. Trump wants to move manufacturing back to the United States, while Biden changes to "nearshoring" and moves manufacturing to Mexico. This subtle adjustment is Biden's inheritance of Trump's industrial policy. From Trump laying the foundation and Biden inheriting the power, Mexico surpassed China in one fell swoop and became the largest trading partner of the United States. In order to open up the U.S. market, BYD Electronics moved to Vietnam to assemble Apple computers. BYD also plans to set up a new energy vehicle plant in Mexico to facilitate its entry into the U.S. auto market.
Originally, Tesla planned to build a second factory in Shanghai, but in the end it chose Mexico. Why did Tesla and BYD go to Mexico to build factories? The core lies in the "nearshore manufacturing" strategy led by Biden. To Mexico, there is also a buffer zone where the assets of Chinese companies are not confiscated by the Mexican government.
If Trump comes up, he may impose further tariffs and force American companies and Chinese companies to build factories in the United States. Mr. Trump has threatened to impose 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and remove China's preferential treatment as a developing country. Basically, as soon as Trump comes up, the tariff war, the trade war, and the technology war will not be left behind. In Trump's eyes, dealing with China is a far greater priority than Russia.
Trump has always advocated uniting Russia to contain China. Putin wants to push Trump up, that is, he wants to ease relations between the United States and Russia, eat the four states of eastern Ukraine, and let the United States turn its guns on China to ease the pressure on Russia. Many Chinese netizens who do not know the truth are shouting in support of Trump. What they didn't think was that when Trump came, foreign trade was under pressure, manufacturing outflow, China's economic growth pressure would become greater, and employment would be more difficult. Especially for foreign trade companies, with an additional 60% tariff, many foreign trade companies can directly close their doors and go out of business, and they don't have to play.
Biden's successful re-election will buy China at least 4 years and Russia for another 4 years. When Trump returns and the United States and Russia ease, who will bear the pressure?
The war of attrition between the United States and Russia in eastern Ukraine has greatly reduced the pressure on China. However, in the Sino-US trade war, the pressure on Russia is smaller, and whose pressure is greater?