In the box office battle of the 2024 Spring Festival, some people laugh and some people leave the scene lonely, and they are in a situation of ice and fire

Before the 2024 Spring Festival file "war", many netizens ridiculed that this year is the "weakest Spring Festival file", with as many as 9 new films scheduled, and the film topics seem to be quite rich, but there are almost no industrial blockbusters.

The live-action movies are all comedies, inspirational comedies, bloody comedies, popular law comedies, satirical comedies...... If many movies change the cast camp, they can basically be directly classified as "small-budget" comedy movies.

Therefore, many netizens were not optimistic about the box office results of the 2024 Spring Festival stalls in the early stage, but now that the Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, the total box office results of the Spring Festival stalls have quietly outperformed the 2023 Spring Festival stalls, which are quite fierce.

Why do you say "quietly"?

Because there are a lot of films in the 2024 Spring Festival, it is rare for the market to present a rather harmonious viewing atmosphere, there is no big smoke in the box office battle, the audience choice is very harmonious, and the wrestling between movie fans is relatively peaceful.

The word-of-mouth and box office distribution of the 2024 Spring Festival stalls are also very different from the past.

票房分水岭彻底拉开，红利难再蹭

In the past, the box office of the Spring Festival stalls was often divided into three echelons, and "Bear Infested" was above the first echelon, and the box office champions and popular dark horses were basically here, and the first echelon could often occupy most of the total box office.

The second echelon is exclusive to "Bear Infested", the flowing Spring Festival stalls are infested with bears, and the Chinese film industry can be as stable as an old cow for ten years, I am afraid that there is only the "Bear Infested" series of movies, the light of Guoman is mighty.

The third echelon is the following members of "Bear Infested", if you can't fight for bear infested three days before the release, it will soon be eliminated by the Spring Festival stalls and become a movie that rubs the Spring Festival dividends, but it's good to be able to drink a sip of soup.

There are still three echelons at the box office of this year's Spring Festival, but the situation is very different from the past.

The first echelon is stable

"Hot and Hot" and "Flying Life 2" lead, one has Jia Ling's protection, and the other has Han Han's protection.

In the early stage, Han Han led the way with feelings and racing topics, but was soon killed by Jia Ling's inspirational growth, but compared with the past Spring Festival files, there is no big gap between the word-of-mouth and popularity of these two head movies.

Douban's score and current box office results are all better than "Hot and Hot".

However, the data of "Hot and Hot" is not the top of the cliff, and the audience satisfaction of "Flying Life 2" is also very good, and there is still suspense about who will have the better overall score of the two movies.

It can be seen that although there are two popular formations in this year's Spring Festival, there is no absolute phenomenon-level blockbuster, but the box office myth of "Hello, Li Huanying" is difficult to replicate, and it is good to have the stability of "Hot and Hot".

Newcomers to the second echelon

In addition to "Bear Infested" in the second echelon, there is also Zhang Yimou's "Article 20", which was once regarded as a member of the first echelon, but accidentally fell behind after its release, and now the box office target has become bear infested.

Regarding the "failure" of "Article 20", many netizens believe that it is caused by publicity mistakes.

In the early stage, the publicity of "Article 20" obviously focused on the victim played by Zhao Liying, and many netizens did not find out that the heroine was Ma Li until they watched the film.

Objectively speaking, the direction of publicity and distribution must have an impact on the audience of the movie, but with the opening mode of "Article 20", which is more like a TV series-style popular law comedy, it can hold the second echelon, which is already stable.

You must know that in addition to "Man Jianghong", there are only two Zhang Yimou movies that have really exceeded 1 billion.

In the 2023 Spring Festival, the public underestimated his box office potential, and in the 2024 Spring Festival, the public also overestimated his box office potential.

The third echelon is bleak

To say that the biggest change in the box office of the Spring Festival stalls in 2024 is that in the past, even if it was at the bottom, it could still rub the third echelon of the Spring Festival market dividends.

The top two box office in the third echelon, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" and "Mr. Red Carpet", have not had a box office of less than 100 million so far, so bad that the producers regretted choosing the wrong schedule and withdrew from the Spring Festival file one after another, and they have worked hard to save the box office.

But no matter how much exposure the Spring Festival file has, no matter what the word-of-mouth is, the effect of these two movies in promoting the withdrawal and fighting again is obviously not better than choosing a suitable schedule with concentrated publicity and distribution at the beginning.

The movies that performed well in the third echelon all chose to withdraw from the Spring Festival file, not to mention the animation "Eight Rings: Canopy Nether" and "Huang Pi: God of Wealth Cat" with worse box office performance, the former was speaking out a few days earlier to ask for film scheduling.

Stuck in the last two days of the Spring Festival, there was also an action suspense "Breaking the War" by Wu Zhenyu, with a box office of less than 20,000 on the first day, and it was still released online and in theaters, and the operation was quite confusing.

These movies are not quite the same as "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Shake the Sun", although "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Shake the Sun" failed at the box office, they worked hard to publicize, and the rest of the films did not even make a sound for publicity.

Even some movies have not been released offline.

It's hard not to suspect that some movies want to take advantage of a wave of Spring Festival dividends, including "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Shake the Sun", and netizens generally thought that they were not suitable for the Spring Festival when these two movies were officially announced.

The best period of Internet popularity of "Mr. Red Carpet" was in November when it was first set after the Pingyao Film Festival, when the network feedback was excellent, and Andy Lau and Ning Hao's various stalks in the entertainment industry were also quite novel.

But perhaps because the feedback on the Internet was so good, with the sentence "the employer decided", the movie was changed from an ordinary schedule to a Spring Festival file, which not only missed the best opportunity for the first online fermentation, but also failed to absorb the Spring Festival dividend.

The two-way healing love story of patients gathered in "Shaking the Sun", the Lover's file and the New Year's Eve file are very suitable, but the Spring Festival file that the audience is the most "taboo about life and death" was chosen, and the choice of the set file was once confusing.

squeezed into the Spring Festival stalls, but without crushing word-of-mouth and publicity advantages, it will eventually be reduced to the third echelon of the box office.

In the past, the third echelon of the Spring Festival stalls also started with a box office of 100 million yuan, which led to many bad movies wanting to rub off on this big market that can guarantee the bottom no matter how poor the quality is, but the 2024 Spring Festival stalls prove that this trick does not work.

Maybe the quality of the third echelon of the previous Spring Festival stalls has consumed the trust of the audience, or the competition for publicity and distribution is becoming more and more fierce, and now the third echelon of the Spring Festival stalls, word-of-mouth films can't guarantee the bottom, and the situation is worse than the other.

Judging by the quality of this year's films, it's a pity, at least "Mr. Red Carpet" shouldn't have been so embarrassing at the box office.

From a long-term perspective, the third echelon guarantee password is not effective, and it is a mixed blessing.

The good news is that there should be fewer and fewer bastards who want to win the Spring Festival in the future, and the worry is that blockbusters may be more cautious when they are scheduled for the Spring Festival, and the "weakest Spring Festival new film lineup" may become the norm.