The holiday balance is insufficient, and these overseas market events may affect A-shares!

In a blink of an eye, the "longest 8-day Spring Festival holiday in history" is only one and a half days left.

On the way back to work, it's time to review the performance of overseas markets during the holiday and the major events that may affect A-shares after the holiday.

The Hang Seng Index rose 1.87% at noon, and the Hang Seng Technology Index expanded to 2.69%. As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 4% and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.6%.

On the market, the media sector was active, technology stocks continued to be short, GDS rose 12%, Xpeng Motors and Ping An Good Doctor rose more than 6%, the biomedical sector rebounded rapidly, WuXi Biologics rose more than 10%, and automobiles, retail, real estate and other sectors rose one after another.

Looking at the trend of Hong Kong stocks during the Spring Festival, although it closed down on February 9, the K-line pattern showed four consecutive yangs, which also made the market fully expect the "good start" of A-shares after the holiday.

U.S. stocks fell first and then rose

Warren Buffett, Bridgewater and Hillhouse's latest positions exposed

S&P 500

NASDAQ

Dow

The biggest news during the period may be related to the big change in interest rate cut expectations. The Fed's "last mile" to fight inflation has been bumpy, and interest rate cut expectations have cooled sharply again.

On February 13, Eastern time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that inflation was more stubborn than expected, and the core CPI rose in January, rising 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in eight months. The much-watched "super-core CPI" (core services prices excluding housing prices) surged 0.7% month-on-month, the biggest increase since September 2022. The year-on-year increase was as high as 4.4%, the highest since May 2023.

The probability of a rate cut at the May meeting fell sharply to 36% from around 60% on Feb. 12 following the release of strong inflation data, and U.S. short-term interest rate futures traders have been inclined to bet that the Fed will not cut rates before June. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, the market is now pricing in June as the most likely point for the Fed to cut rates for the first time, with a probability of at least 25 basis points cutting rates at about 75%.

However, fortunately, the market gradually accepted and digested the news that the interest rate cut was postponed again, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively in the latest trading day.

At the close of trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.91% to 38,773.12, the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 5,029.73 and the Nasdaq rose 0.3% to 15,906.17.

Economic data released on Thursday showed that US retail sales fell 0.8% month-on-month in January, the largest decline since March 2023, with an expected decline of 0.1% and a previous increase of 0.6%, while core retail sales fell by 0.6% month-on-month with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous increase of 0.4%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Daniel Silver pointed out that U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in January, mainly dragged down by declining revenues from auto dealerships and gas stations.

Tesla rose 6.22%, but it was favored by institutions

TECH STOCKS MOSTLY FELL, WITH WIND'S TAMAMA TECHNOLOGY INDEX DOWN 0.33%, GOOGLE DOWN 2.17%, APPLE DOWN 0.16%, MICROSOFT DOWN 0.72%, NETFLIX UP 2.44%, AND FACEBOOK UP 2.27%.

Tesla rose 6.22% strongly, however, its future performance is not optimistic about institutions. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said institutional clients all believe the stock will underperform in the next six months, and almost everyone thinks the stock will underperform in the coming year. One of the biggest reasons is artificial intelligence, and Tesla being excluded from the AI-related tech stock rally.

Elon Musk is credited with marginalizing Tesla from the 2024 AI theme, leaving investors to focus on the deteriorating demand for electric vehicles. Another big concern for investors is that Tesla's revenue growth could stall.

Warren Buffett reduced his holdings in Apple and increased his holdings in Chevron

Recently, the 13F document in the fourth quarter of last year showed that Buffett reduced his holdings by 10 million shares, and the market value of the reduction was about 1.822 billion US dollars (about 13.1 billion yuan) based on the average stock price during the period.

However, Apple is still Berkshire Hathaway's largest heavy stock, accounting for 50.19% of disclosed holdings.

Since hitting its high in December, Apple's stock price has been in a correction and is last trading at $183.86.

Recently, Apple's blockbuster products have suffered a "rollover". The Apple Vision Pro, which starts at $3,499 (about 25,000 yuan), has been on sale in the United States for less than two weeks, and Google search trends show that searches for "returned Apple Vision Pro" have surged. Recently, Apple's Vision Pro has begun to receive returns from users one after another.

In addition, Warren Buffett also holds heavy positions in 、、、。

Bezos again

Cash out

Amazon nearly $2.1 billion

During the Spring Festival, Bezos, the former richest man in the world, was not idle.

According to Wind, Amazon filed a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showing that founder Bezos recently sold another $2.08 billion worth of shares.

Bezos sold about 12 million Amazon shares on Feb. 9 and Feb. 12 at an average price of $173.3 per share, according to the filing. The sale reduced its direct stake in Amazon to approximately 964 million shares.

Bridgewater adds Lilly, Nvidia, Hillhouse plus Pinduoduo

With the intensive disclosure of 13F positions in U.S. stocks, the positions of many celebrity private placements have also been revealed.

According to the data, as of the end of 2023, the total market value of Bridgewater, a world-renowned hedge fund, in the U.S. stock market reached $17.9 billion.

HHLR Advisors, an independent fund management platform owned by Hillhouse, has a market value of $4.962 billion in U.S. stocks, and it added positions in Pinduoduo and Danaher in the fourth quarter, but reduced its positions in Shell, Legend Biotech, Microsoft, etc. In addition, Scion Asset Management, helmed by Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", has greatly increased its positions in Alibaba, JD.com, etc.

Cisco, Morgan Stanley will lay off employees

Morgan Stanley is reportedly cutting hundreds of positions in its wealth management division, including some managing directors, in a cost-cutting effort initiated by newly appointed CEO Ted Pick amid signs of slowing growth in this key business unit of the bank.

In addition, Cisco Systems announced plans to cut 5% of its workforce, or about 4,250 jobs, making it the latest tech company to announce layoffs in 2024. Cisco now expects to recognize approximately $800 million in pretax charges in its GAAP financial results, including severance payments and other one-time termination benefits, as well as other expenses, which are primarily paid in cash.

Japan's nominal GDP fell out of the top three in the world

The stock market hit new highs

In the past two days, big news from Japan has swiped the screen.

First of all, #日本名义GDP跌出全球前三#这一话题引发网友热议.

According to data recently disclosed by the Japanese Cabinet Office,

Japan's nominal GDP in 2023 is 591.482 trillion yen, or 4.2106 trillion US dollars in US dollar terms, which has been overtaken by Germany, falling from third to fourth place in the world.

According to Kyodo News, Japan's GDP fell out of the top three in the world due to the depreciation of the yen against the dollar and the rise in prices in Germany surpassing Japan. If Japan's share of the global economy continues to shrink, it is likely that Japan's voice in the international community will be reduced.

At the same time, the Japanese stock market hit new highs.

On February 16, the Nikkei 225 index quickly extended its gains to 1.8% in early trading.

The intraday high reached 38,865.06 points, a new high since January 1990, less than 100 points from the all-time high of the index, and is infinitely close to refreshing history.

During the Spring Festival, the Japanese stock market also continued to climb the rhythm, including a 2.89% rise on February 13.

European stock markets were volatile and climbing

The UK economy is in a technical recession

Finally, let's take a look at the European stock market and news.

The three major European stock indexes rose across the board on the 15th. The average price index of the Financial Times 100 stocks in the London stock market closed at 7597.53 points on the 15th, up 29.13 points, or 0.38%, from the previous trading day.

UK FTSE 100 Index

In terms of the other two major European stock indexes, the DAX index of the German Frankfurt stock market closed at 17,046.69 points, up 101.21 points, or 0.6%, from the previous trading day, and the CAC 40 index of the Paris stock market closed at 7,743.42 points, up 66.07 points, or 0.86%, from the previous trading day.

German DAX index

French CAC 40 index

Judging from the above-mentioned K-line chart of the three major European stock indexes, during the Spring Festival, the European stock market was mainly volatile and upward, which further strengthened the warm atmosphere of the peripheral stock market.

However, on the news front, data released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday showed that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.3% from October to December last year, a decline that exceeded economists' expectations. Following a 0.1% contraction in the previous three months, the decline means the UK is in a technical recession.

Consumer spending, the main driver of the UK economy, fell by 1% in the second half of 2023, with retail spending continuing to be subdued amid a prolonged cost-of-living crisis. The Office for National Statistics said that the UK's economic growth momentum for the whole of 2023 was weak, with growth of only 0.1%.

In order to curb inflation, the Bank of England has raised interest rates several times, and although the inflation level has dropped significantly, it is still above the inflation target. In addition, there is a serious lack of business investment and public demand in the UK, and economic growth is sluggish.

Investments are risky, and independent judgment is important

This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk.

Edited by Peng Shuiping

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#1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 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#373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}