2024 "core" pattern: recovery can be expected, and the layout of semiconductor giants is waiting

In 2024, the semiconductor industry is ushering in a new start: many institutions predict that 2024 will usher in a recovery rebound.

According to the latest research by IDC, the semiconductor industry will usher in a new wave of growth with the explosive growth of global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC), as well as the recovery of market demand for smartphones, personal computers, servers, and automobiles.

On the eve of the new wave of cycles, the semiconductor industry is concerned about when this round of semiconductor cycle will come out of the bottom? What quarter will the market recovery take place?

On the occasion of the Spring Festival, the New Year column "Chasing the Core Exploration: 2024" specially planned by Master Xin has investigated more than 20 leading semiconductor companies, and invited them to put forward their opinions on the above issues, and organize them into a document to share with readers in the industry to explore the future development of chip enterprises in 2024.

Chip companies are optimistic about the semiconductor cycle in 2024

Most companies in the industry are optimistic about whether this round of semiconductor cycle can get out of the bottom market in the new year, except for some companies that have not made a clear response to this question, the remaining 14 companies have made it clear that they will get out of the bottom market in 2024 and have confidence in the semiconductor industry entering the recovery stage in 2024.

This confidence is supported by the changing trend of global semiconductor sales figures. According to the global semiconductor sales amount and month-on-year statistical chart compiled by Suzaku Fund, the lowest point of the year-on-year calculation, the current round of semiconductor cycle starts in June 2019 and ends in March 2023. It can be seen that the year-on-year decline in the semiconductor cycle in the second quarter of 2023 has reached a historical low, and from June 2023, the global semiconductor sales amount has narrowed the year-on-year decline for 4 consecutive months.

 The blue line is the year-on-year data of global semiconductor sales for the month.

The red bar chart is the absolute value of sales.

Data source: American Semiconductor Industry Association, compiled by Suzaku Fund.

In other words, the current round of semiconductor cyclical bottoms started in 2019, peaked between the end of 2021 and February 2022, and 2023 is a stage of rapid decline and bottoming, looking forward to 2024, the upward trend of the cycle is in sight.

So, when the cycle will go up has become a key topic in the industry.

Specifically, due to the different semiconductor tracks, enterprises will have different feelings and expectations.

The growth of storage prices in the third quarter of 2023 has given the entire semiconductor industry new expectations for a new round of business cycle. The market that took the lead in starting price increases also gave storage companies more confidence in the start of a new cycle.

During the survey, the spokespersons of Longsys and BIWIN Storage both told Master Xin that the semiconductor market bottomed out in Q4 of 2023, and the storage market took the lead in recovering. BIWIN's spokesperson attributed the market recovery to the explosive growth of global demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, coupled with the rising demand for consumer electronics such as smartphones and personal computers, as well as the resilient growth of the automotive industry, and the semiconductor market is expected to officially usher in a recovery in 2024.

Q1 is the traditional off-season for consumer electronics, and most companies are not optimistic about the market performance of semiconductors in this quarter, but will look forward to the Q2 and Q3 quarters of 2024.

Spokesmen for China Resources Microelectronics, Shengsi Microelectronics, and Kuixin Technology believe that the semiconductor market is expected to bottom out in Q2 in 2024. China Resources Microelectronics said that from the perspective of terminal inventory digestion, macroeconomic recovery, and terminal application innovation, the Q2 semiconductor market will usher in a new scene; Shengsi Microelectronics observes from the changes in the international political and economic environment and the law of industry cycles, and believes that the Q2 semiconductor market will slowly rise from the trough; Kuixin Technology is from the supply side of the industry's vane storage: the capital expenditure of the three storage giants in 2023 has been reduced by 40%-60% However, it can be seen from Q4 that the stored inventory level has gradually bottomed out, and the price rebound trend is gradually becoming clearer.

Those who have high hopes for the recovery of the market in Q3 in 2024 are spokespersons of semiconductor companies such as Transphorm, Teradyne, Diao Microelectronics, Xinhuazhang, Hengshuo Semiconductor, Neusoft Carrier, and Watertek Xingyuan.

Primit Parikh, President and CEO of Transphorm, said: "With the adoption of third-generation semiconductor devices such as gallium nitride and silicon carbide, the systematic growth of new products and the inventory adjustment in the market is finally completed at this time.

Feng Shuizhong, director of market development at Teradyne, said that the data statistics and surveys of some research institutions estimate that there will be a 20% increase in global chips.

Xu Wei, Vice President of Marketing of Diao Microelectronics, and Li Dan, Senior Marketing Manager of Hengshuo Semiconductor and Sales Director of Watertek Source, make a judgment based on market experience: Generally speaking, the market demand in the second half of the year is more vigorous than the first half of the year.

Fu Yong, chief technology officer of Xinhuazhang, predicted that the recovery period would fall in Q3, and he cautiously said: 2024 will be a better year, accumulating more potential energy for "recovery", and with the destocking and new applications such as AI, there will even be very bright indicators in the fields of storage and high-performance computing.

Yang Xiaojun, marketing director of Neusoft Carrier, through the observation of the market, also put the expectation of market recovery in Q3, Yang Xiaojun analyzed: The semiconductor recovery momentum that will begin in the second half of 2023 is actually due to the recovery price increase or repair price correction of AI/MEMORY-related chips. As of press time, the domestic packaging and testing capacity does have a tight trend, but the main reason is that Q4 to Q1 next year is the traditional peak season, and it is also a round of demand rise caused by the end of the fiscal year and the time of the performance of many companies. Stretched YoY look, 2-23 years in the second half of this wave of recovery momentum can not fully reflect the long-term continuous growth, the main reason for this round of demand rise is that some of the domestic market has improved, such as new e-cigarettes have driven a wave from MCU to supporting screen/power chip and other components to rise or even partially out of stock, but from the overall consumer electronics industry, demand has not fully recovered and continued to grow. At the same time, many analysts have given expectations for the growth of mobile phones/PCs/AI in 2024 (for example, this year's CES drama focuses on AI).

Based on the above reasons, Yang Xiaojun believes that the semiconductor industry will usher in sustained growth at the end of Q3 in 2024.

Changqing Lai, Vice President of Renesas' Global Sales & Marketing Division, and Zhang Juanling, Assistant to the Chairman and Brand Director of Xinhai Technology, affirmed that the industry will recover in 2024, but did not make a specific prediction about the exact date.

Lai Changqing said that due to the complexity of the semiconductor market and the influence of multiple factors, we do not know the exact time point of the industry's rebound, but based on the current supply chain situation and market demand, it is speculated that the overall demand will improve or will not be until the second half of 2024.

Zhang Juanling believes that from a long-term perspective, the domestic semiconductor industry has a strong momentum for sustainable development. On the one hand, with the development of large models, AI, IOT, and smart car industries, the general environment of continuous iteration and improvement of semiconductors brought about by scientific and technological innovation has not changed; on the other hand, the general trend of domestic substitution of semiconductors has not changed in the context of international and regional competition. We are confident that the industry will be on the upswing next year in 2024, and we believe that better preparation in technology, products, and markets makes more sense than predicting when it will rebound.

Giants take the lead in layout and occupy business opportunities

Most of the companies in the survey are sure that the semiconductor market will usher in a recovery in 2024, and the more critical question is, in the recovery market, what aspects should enterprises make efforts to seize market opportunities?

Microchip

总裁兼首席执行官 Ganesh Moorthy

As we enter 2024, I remain optimistic thanks to our strong business model and absolute confidence in our leadership team. Our diligent global team enables us to navigate the business cycle effectively. We will continue to strengthen our partnerships steadfastly, steer our course, and continue to deliver shareholder value – a testament to our continued success."

Despite the current macroeconomic challenges, we remain convinced that semiconductors are the engines of innovation and can continue to propel us towards a richer human experience. Our diverse product portfolio is a springboard for innovation, driving innovation in applications ranging from defense and aerospace solutions to data centers, automotive, medical devices, industrial installations, and communications infrastructure – and we're at the heart of those innovative areas.

(Note: The information is derived from the company's public information)

Renesas

Renesas Vice President of Global Sales & Marketing Division, Changqing Lai

In 2024, Renesas will continue to focus on the four major areas of automotive, industrial, infrastructure, and IoT, continue to enrich its product lineup, accelerate the integration of channel providers, and continue to expand its global footprint.

In addition to continuing to increase investment in the core areas of MCU/MPU and launching more new products, we will also accelerate the launch of new products in power devices, power chips, analog chips, sensors and modules, and wireless connectivity, and strengthen product research and development for the Chinese market. While we are doing in-depth and thorough work for our head customers, we will also strengthen our coverage and support for the mass market of small and medium-sized customers.

ams OSRAM

Aldo Kamper, CEO and Chairman

The new trends that will be in the coming year in 2024 are expected to bring breakthrough changes in the field of visible and invisible light, opening up more possibilities for related sensor applications, and the field of optics is about to usher in a revolution. ams OSRAM will continue to implement "a little smaller, a little smaller" to push miniaturization to the extreme. Whether it's the NanEye M image sensor for endoscopic probes in the medical field or the EVIYOS® 2.0 smart headlamp...... We firmly believe that "miniaturization" is still the main trend in the field of optics.

In the case of MicroLEDs, for example, continuous process refinement has made it possible to produce smaller LEDs. This has important implications for a wide range of applications such as backlighting, video walls, automotive taillights, and more. In addition, we believe that lighting will reshape the world of the car, both physical and virtual, in anticipation of smarter, safer, and more harmonious mobility.

Optical technology plays an important role in the field of personal health. Thanks to digitalization and miniaturization, today's wearables are smaller, smarter, and more precise. ams OSRAM's advanced technology has long been applied to wearable devices such as smart watches and headphones to accurately monitor users' vital signs. In the field of medical CT, the quality of the imaging system determines the performance of the medical diagnostic system. The Photon Counting technology, developed by ams OSRAM, counts individual photons, enabling higher image resolution and improving the quality of the acquired data. At the same time, we are revolutionizing the field of horticultural lighting by combining outstanding high-precision LED lighting with advanced sensor technology.

Looking forward to the future, optical technology solutions "more miniaturized, smarter, more integrated, more digital, and more energy-saving" have become a consensus in various fields.

Silicon Labs(芯科科技)

Vice President, Asia Pacific & Japan Business Vice President, Luming Wang

In 2024, Silicon Labs will continue to help enterprises break down connectivity barriers and connect their products to the cloud, enabling countless markets in wireless connectivity.

In terms of product development, we are committed to the development of third-generation platform products to address the challenges brought about by the continued acceleration of the Internet of Things, including the need for more processing power for far-edge devices and the need for greater portability and security for compute-intensive applications. At the same time, we're pushing the Simplicity Studio 6 suite of developer tools to work and continue to refine a full suite of SDKs for various IoT wireless protocols, as well as a one-stop development tool that provides step-by-step guidance and expert advice.

In terms of technological innovation, we attach great importance to the trend of combining artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) and IoT at the edge, as the introduction of AI/ML into IoT applications can reduce bandwidth requirements, save power consumption, and enable devices with more processing power for faster and smarter applications. In our third-generation platform products, the integration of AI/ML accelerators will enable more than 100x more processing power on edge devices.

In addition, security has always been an important technical direction that we pay close attention to and continue to work on. We've developed industry-leading Secure Vault security technology, which includes a full suite of advanced security features. It is the industry's first PSA Level 3 certified security suite, which significantly reduces the risk of IoT security breaches and compromised intellectual property. Based on innovations in Secure Vault technology, our third-generation platform will further enhance security features and become the most secure platform in the IoT market.

Achronix Semiconductor

General Manager of China, Guo Daozheng

Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, Achronix will leverage hardware accelerator technology based on its high-performance, high-bandwidth FPGA products to support innovators in developing better intelligent applications in three directions.

First, Achronix will take full advantage of the features of its Speedster7t FPGA devices with 2D network-on-chip (2D NoC), machine learning processors (MLP), and GDDR6 high-speed memory interfaces to help AI solution providers perfectly address the challenges of internal and external connectivity, hardware acceleration, and storage invocation required for large-scale inference.

Second, both AI and high-performance computing require superior data processing capabilities, efficient data movement speeds, and high-speed interconnection capabilities to achieve optimal performance. Achronix will provide solutions based on its high-performance, high-bandwidth FPGA devices, including enabling customers to develop a variety of SmartNICs to seamlessly meet these requirements.

Third, as intelligence moves further to the edge, the market will need a variety of flexibly configurable embedded data processing accelerators and chiplet components, for which Achronix will provide more comprehensive services to help more master chip developers integrate Speedcore eFPGA IP into various SoCs or ASICs. In addition, Achronix will offer chiplet components based on its Speedcore eFPGA IP to enable users to develop next-generation smart chips in a completely new paradigm.

Nexperia spokesperson

Going forward, Nexperia will play a central role in shaping the future of technology with a diverse and differentiated product portfolio, cementing our position as a global leader in essential semiconductors." Our portfolio of power discretes, modules, power management and signal conditioning ICs, including wide bandgaps, is well positioned for our continued growth.

We are focused on broadening our silicon carbide product line with the introduction of automotive-grade products to meet the growing demand for reliability and high-performance solutions in the automotive industry. While meeting the growing demand for power and connectivity, we will focus on providing our customers with energy-efficient solutions and unparalleled service, and quickly adapt to industry trends.

Transphorm(传方半导体)

总裁及CEO Primit Parikh

In 2024, Transphorm will continue its expansion in the high-power GaN segment. Transphorm is now a leader in this field, enabling customers to deliver high-performance, low-cost solutions for sub-300W fast charging applications, ranging from 300W to over 7kW. In addition, Transphorm is developing industry-leading 1200V gallium nitride.

Transphorm recently announced its acquisition by Renesas, a move that will help Renesas expand its power portfolio and lay a solid foundation for industry-wide adoption of wide bandgap materials. Transphorm's continued focus on product and technology innovation, combined with Renesas' sales and channels, enables Transphorm to offer a significant portfolio of power solutions to a broader range of large global enterprises.

Teradyne

Director of Market Development: Feng Shuizhong

In 2024, Teradyne will deeply cultivate the Chinese market, provide customers with high-quality testing solutions, and further improve and expand the ecological layout of the new product UltraFLEXplus.

CR Micro

CR Micro will continue to pay close attention to the development trend of emerging fields such as new energy and automobile industry, make full use of its unique resource advantages and core technology advantages, actively carry out the transformation of product structure, customer structure and application structure, look at the development trend of internal and external business formats, improve industrial synergy and complementarity, amplify the effect of the whole industry chain, and grasp market opportunities.

The company will also actively promote forward-looking R&D projects, actively cover industrial control, automotive electronics, intelligent sensing and other application fields, accelerate the process of tackling key core technologies, strive to move forward along the development path of marketization, specialization, industrialization and internationalization, continuously increase R&D investment, consolidate the "hard power" of science and technology, build a diversified application field layout of scientific and technological innovation, and realize the leapfrog transformation of the industry from "bigger" to "stronger".

At the same time, we will deeply cultivate the existing product market, extend horizontally and vertically to broaden the product category, continuously improve the depth and breadth of the company's product research and development through technological research and development innovation, enhance our own technical reserve strength, and meet the diversified needs of customers and the market for products. In addition, the company will also strengthen cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, maintain a cooperative relationship with upstream and downstream to grow together, and jointly promote the high-quality development of China's integrated circuit industry.

Spokesperson for Longsys

Technologies such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things are constantly developing, and the demand for high-performance storage products in various industries is also increasing, especially in the fields of servers and AI PCs. Longsys will seize the opportunity of the development of this industry and make adaptive and forward-looking investments in technological innovation and market layout.

Looking forward to 2024, Longsys will continue to improve its storage business structure, enhance its core competitiveness, operate pragmatically, and serve global customers well.

Diao Microelectronics

Vice President of Marketing, Wei Xu

In 2024, Diao Microelectronics will continue to develop high-performance analog products in three dimensions: high speed, high precision and high power density.

In the automotive market, we will continue to improve the serialization of lamp drive and motor drive, and at the same time improve the product category around the intelligent cockpit and body domain system framework.

In the consumer market, combined with the existing customer groups, we continue to deploy high-performance specialty products in the field of power supply and signal chain. At the same time, it adheres to the strategy of multi-market and multi-application, including communications, industry, security, etc.

SmartSens spokesperson

Looking forward to 2024, SmartSens will also uphold the concept of scientific and technological innovation, continue to polish products, and put customer needs in the first place. Horizontally, we are committed to continuously improving product quality and pursuing excellence, and vertically, we have an in-depth understanding of application scenarios and are committed to launching imaging solutions that best meet customer needs to help customers innovate applications. In addition, in the face of a rapidly changing market, we will also adopt a multi-pronged supply chain system to ensure stable supply and reduce customer risks. In addition, in 2024, SmartSens will also focus on the fields of intelligent security, intelligent vehicle electronics, industrial machine vision and smart phones.

BIWIN Storage Spokesperson

At the business level, BIWIN will actively expand the resources of first-line customers, dig deep into the needs of various market segments, further consolidate and expand market share, and achieve sustainable business growth; In the field of IC design, the company's first main control chip has excellent performance, and the product has been lit up and is being prepared for mass production.

In terms of market development, BIWIN will continue to deepen the global market, focusing on expanding markets such as North and South America and India. The company now has local production capabilities in Brazil, Mexico and India, which gives it the flexibility to adapt to market changes and deliver products more quickly, giving it a competitive advantage. The company will further develop various regional markets and provide better services and products to customers around the world.

For the consumer storage market, BIWIN has carried out product innovation and design around user experience and demands, and launched new consumer storage products of its own brand, further enriching BIWIN's consumer storage product matrix. BIWIN will continue to focus on the main business of memory, continue to promote the innovation and improvement of products and services, and achieve breakthroughs and innovations in six application fields, including mobile intelligent terminals, PCs, industry terminals, data centers, smart cars, and mobile storage, to meet the ever-changing market demand.

 Chipsea Technology

Zhang Juanling, assistant to the chairman and brand director

Chipsea continues to carry out the R&D and marketing of automotive-grade MCUs, and has passed AEC-Q100 testing and certification for a number of products, and has carried out technical cooperation and project introduction with major customers in the industry.

In addition, the company continues to pay attention to the PC chip market, and in 2023, the company's EC products and PD products applied to the PC field will also begin to increase rapidly, and the development of the second-generation EC products will be smooth and will be introduced into domestic leading enterprises for verification. In 2024, the company will continue to increase its investment in the PC business and strive to create products with a better user experience for customers.

Spokesperson of Shengsi Microelectronics

As a major MCU supplier in China, Shengsi Microelectronics continues to optimize and ensure competitive advantages in general products and consumer products, and focuses on upgrading and improving products in smart home, industrial control green energy and automotive electronics. The specific application scope includes: body domain, intelligent cockpit domain, chassis domain, automotive MCU, motor control, BMS, power and automation motors, smart home appliances, fire security, intelligent lighting, lithium battery digital (electronic cigarettes, TWS earphones) Several key focus areas for concentrated investment in technology, products and solutions.

Xinhua Chapter

Chief Technology Officer Fu Yong

From the perspective of what I am responsible for, I will mainly talk about technology and products here. After nearly four years of development, Xinhuazhang has established a complete digital verification process platform in terms of tools, which is why I say that the hand of foreign "stuck neck" may still be on the neck of our industry, but in the digital verification done by Xinhuazhang, we still have some confidence, and we are already "stuck" us.

Next, Xinhuazhang will uphold the open, inclusive and humble mentality, and work together with industry colleagues, not only domestic EDA companies, but also upstream and downstream partners in the industry, to promote China to establish its own industry and national standards. In the field of EDA, foreign industries already have mature technical systems and standards represented by the three major ones, while China's digital front-end EDA is still in its infancy in this regard. After a long period of historical development, the existing foreign standards have strong syntax coupling and interlocking, which not only increases a lot of redundancy and complex technical baggage, but also objectively increases the difficulty for users to choose different EDA companies for tool migration.

Therefore, China's digital EDA should take advantage of the late-mover advantage, take the essence of the existing international standards, remove the dross, and establish its own technical system and industry standards, as the basis for technological innovation and product research and development, and promote the formation of a stable domestic EDA full-process tool chain, so as to quickly achieve universal industrial deployment. We've done some work on this. For example, he has contributed a large number of technical standards and solutions, taken the lead in submitting a complete standard document for the waveform interface of the debugging system, and participated in the formulation of the FVG standard for formal verification guidelines.

Of course, focusing on vertical fields, such as automotive electronics, RISC-V, etc., Xinhuazhang will also deploy more targeted solutions in combination with specific application scenarios. You should have seen the cooperation between us and Xinqing some time ago. As the only manufacturer in China to achieve mass production of 7nm automotive chips, SiEngine has deployed relevant EDA verification tools for Xinhuazhang. With the help of our tools, SiEngine can carry out system-level software and hardware co-simulation and debugging that are consistent with real use scenarios in the chip design stage, improve the collaborative performance of software and hardware in the system-level application environment, and reduce the risk of chips in the process of vehicle application.

This is a concrete case of the "PIL processor-in-the-loop simulation solution" proposed by us for the automotive field. The two major technologies of automotive scene simulation and chip simulation provided by Xinhuazhang are the key technical bases of the PIL processor-in-the-loop simulation solution. Through cloud scenario traversal simulation, it can save 80% of the time for HIL hardware-in-the-loop simulation testing, and help the development of automotive-grade chips to be applied in the car 1-2 years in advance. This solution has recently been recognized by the Recognition and Research Center of the State Administration for Market Regulation as an "excellent case achievement of automotive chips".

 Kuixin Technology

Vice President Tang Rui

Kuixin Technology's overall plan for 2024 covers many aspects: First, at the technical level, the company will strengthen the research and development of Chiplet IO Die and the promotion of basic unit library IP. Secondly, in terms of the market, we are committed to expanding more data center and computing power-related chip enterprise customers to consolidate market share. Finally, in terms of capital markets, the company plans to complete the final round of financing before the IPO to ensure sufficient funding to support future development. This series of measures aims to make the company form an organic integration at the level of technology, market and capital, and promote Kuixin Technology to move towards a more stable and comprehensive development direction.

Vortex source

Sales Director Li Dan

In terms of product R&D and innovation, in 2024, our company will further enrich our product line while iteratively upgrading the original products. In 24 years, our company will launch the WIFI6 Transceiver RF IP with complete independent intellectual property rights and silicon verification, the IP adopts 40nm process, including high-speed ADC/DAC, high-speed JESD204 B interface, and supports 2.4G/5G dual-band transceiver.

In terms of market development, the company has plans to try to expand the related business of automotive electronics, and is currently actively promoting in the R&D and market ends, and has also made certain progress.

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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body: not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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