Huawei's 5G mobile phone has returned for 164 days, returning to the top of the list!2024 domestic mobile phone changes
Huawei is back strongly, and in the first two weeks of this year, sales returned to the top of China's smartphone list!
Only 164 days have passed since the release of Huawei's Pioneer Program on August 29 last year.
Recently, such news has been flooding the news, according to the latest statistics from Counterpoint.
▲Apple and Huawei's weekly sales trend statistics, source: Counterpoint
Recently, various annual sales data have continued to swipe the screen, and the reports of IDC, Counterpoint, and Canalys data agencies have been released, and people are dazzled by various "global first" and "national first" views.
Huawei directly broke the rumors that the Mate 60 series shipments reached 30 million units, and recently Canalys data released that Huawei's annual mobile phone shipments reached 32.7 million units, and the rumors were self-defeating.
▲Huawei Mate 60 series sales exceeded 30 million rumorsSource: Weibo
Although the rumors are a bit exaggerated, it is an undeniable fact that Huawei's sales and activations in the fourth quarter have returned to the top three in the market, and the top two in China, second only to Apple and Xiaomi.
▲2023 Q4 China's smartphone sales market share, source: Counterpoint
On the other hand, three years ago, it "separated" from Huawei, and the glory of starting from scratch directly sat on the first position of Chinese brands in the fourth quarter and annual shipments of the domestic smartphone market, second only to Apple.
One is Huawei, which has been treated unfairly, repeatedly sanctioned, and its sales have fallen to the bottom, and the other is the glory of being forced to get out of the shade of the tree, grow independently, and endure hardships, and now both companies have returned to the head of the Chinese mobile phone market, and it took them just over three years to achieve all this.
There is no doubt that China's mobile phone market in 2024 will inevitably be turbulent, opportunities and challenges coexist, the war of AI large models is becoming more and more anxious, the competition of self-developed technology has entered a white-hot stage, new technologies are stirring market demand, and also affecting the nerves of each manufacturer, and changes in the market pattern are underway.
In this year, Huawei and Honor will undoubtedly become the second most critical variable, becoming the focus of the spotlight on the stage of the mobile phone industry.
Huawei's self-developed chips are accelerating the landing, and more and more new machines are about to come out, from the flagship to the mid-to-high-end market go hand in hand, conquering the city; Honor is armed with many self-developed technologies to the teeth, benchmarking Apple and Huawei, and at the same time launching a fierce attack on overseas markets, how will Honor face the return of its big brother Huawei and bear the pressure of the high-end market?
From today's point of view, how does Huawei Glory regain its own rhythm step by step, return to the front row of the domestic market step by step, and become the head again? From technology to products, from channels to market strategies, what are the "secrets" of Huawei and Honor? How will OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi deal with the return of old rivals? Mobile phones 2024, a good show is being staged.
1. Digging deep into the hidden mysteries of each company's data, it is an indisputable fact that Huawei has returned to glory and China
Although it is an indisputable fact that Huawei and Honor have entered the head of China's mobile phone market, the data dimensions given by major market research institutions are not the same, and even if they are in the same dimension, they are different in terms of specific number and share proportion, and the ranking order will also change.
This time, we mainly look at the latest reports on China's mobile phone market in the fourth quarter and the whole year released by mainstream market research institutions. From the perspective of data statistics, IDC, Canalys counts shipments (Shipments), shipments are more shipments of brand manufacturers such as Huami OV, more upstream, Counterpoint counts sales (Sales), which is closer to the perception of mobile phone dealer sales, and BCI counts the number of activations, which is closer to the number of products that consumers actually buy and start using to some extent.
Since the Huawei Mate 60 series has only been on sale since August 29, it is necessary to pay more attention to Huawei to see the data of the third and fourth quarters, especially in the fourth quarter, which is larger, and Huawei is still stable in sixth place in terms of shipments, sales and activations throughout the year.
▲China's smartphone sales market share for the whole year of 2023, source: Counterpoint
In the fourth quarter, Huawei's sales volume and activation volume are ranked third in the domestic market, and Chinese brands are second, and the data growth rate of different institutions is relatively close, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%, and the share is more than 15%, and Huawei's mobile phone activation volume has exceeded 11.4 million units in three months.
However, it is worth mentioning that Huawei's mobile phone shipment market share and growth rate are relatively low, whether in IDC or Canalys statistics, it is in the fourth place, with a market share of about 14%, a year-on-year increase of less than 50%.
▲ 2023 Q4 China's smartphone market shipment share, source: IDC
This may reflect that the actual sales side is more popular than the Huawei brand shipment side, and Huawei has released a batch of production capacity to the channel in the third quarter, that is, in September after the release of the Pioneer Plan.
What is more noteworthy on Honor's side is the overall data of the whole year, and there are no short-term outbreaks of some product models, but it is worth noting that in the statistics of different institutions, Honor's ranking has fluctuated greatly.
For example, in IDC's annual data statistics, Honor ranks second in shipments and first among domestic Android brands, while in the statistics of Counterpoint, Canalys and BCI, Honor ranks fourth in terms of shipments, sales and activations, and third among domestic Android brands, behind OV.
▲The shipment share of China's smartphone market in 2023, source: IDC
If we only look at the annual shipment share, the gap between IDC and Canalys statistics has reached 1 percentage point, IDC is 17.1%, and Canalys is 16%.
▲ China's smartphone market shipment share in 2023, source: Canalys
Of course, the statistical channels, data sources, and specific statistical time frames of different municipal research institutions are different, so we can make comprehensive observations, obtain a more comprehensive understanding, and understand the performance of different upstream and downstream segments of the industry through different statistical calibers.
In any case, Huawei's popularity in the fourth quarter and the significant growth in its annual share have been confirmed, and Honor's strong performance in the fourth quarter and the whole year has also made it one of the top domestic Android brands.
It has become an indisputable fact that Huawei Glory has become the twin heroes of China's mobile phones.
2. After three years of ups and downs, from "fighting for luck" to "pure-blooded Hongmeng", what is the reason for the return of Huawei's glory?
Achieving such results is naturally not something that can be done with a pat on the head, nor is it achieved overnight, but the "speed" of Huawei and Honor is no longer unpleasant.
Honor officially separated from Huawei at the end of 2020, and it has only been three years since the beginning of 2021, although Huawei has been sanctioned by the United States since 2019, but the last Huawei Mate 40 series mobile phone equipped with Kirin 9000 chip was released at the end of October 2020, and it will be about three years from Huawei's more difficult 2021.
▲In the past three years, Huawei Honor's sales share in China's mobile phone market has changed
From the first quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2023, Huawei's domestic market share fluctuated from 15%, reached a trough of 6.2% in the first quarter of 2022, and then rebounded significantly in the third quarter of 2022, reaching 12.9%, and then fluctuated to 15.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, returning to the level of three years ago.
Looking at Huawei's journey, it can't help but sigh, although there are twists and turns, but Huawei is indeed "back", it is true that compared with the peak of 2019 and 2020, there is still a lot of distance from the situation of a monopoly on the domestic mobile phone market, but after all, it has climbed back from the bottom.
On Honor's side, in the first quarter of the first year after independence, the market share once reached a low of 5.5%, but soon, from the third quarter of 2021, Honor's sales share began to rebound significantly. In the second quarter of 2022, it once reached a market share high of 18.3%, and in the third quarter of last year, Honor once again repeated this result. The outstanding feature of Glory is that it recovers quickly and grows quickly.
Looking back over the past three years, the difficulties and challenges encountered by Huawei and Honor are both different and similar.
For example, in terms of the supply chain, Huawei is difficult to produce chips due to sanctions, and many overseas suppliers have gradually cut off the supply of parts, and Huawei has further accelerated the localization of key components. At the software level, Google GMS has long since terminated its cooperation, and Huawei Hongmeng, which has been "turned positive" in 2019, has rapidly iterated and become the underlying system support for Huawei's entire hardware ecosystem.
On the other hand, after the independence of Glory, it is also faced with a "blank paper" supply chain, Glory CEO Zhao Ming once said at the press conference that the most urgent thing for Glory after independence is to restore the supply chain, and the people of Glory talk and sign one by one.
At the same time, Honor has lost the chips and systems that it has relied on for a long time, and it can be said that the software and hardware have to start making a set of their own things again. From supply chain, technology, products to channels, Honor needs to overcome no less difficulties than Big Brother.
Now, after all the hard work, in August 2023, Huawei's "Pioneer Plan" was released, and the "gas machine" using domestic chips has become the object of heated discussion among all parties in the industry and down to the streets, well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that within four months after the release, Huawei Mate 60 Pro shipments have reached about 6 million units, and sales are expected to reach at least 12 million units within one year of release.
▲Consumers poured into offline stores to buy Huawei Mate 60 new phones, source: Huawei
On the software side, Huawei's self-developed HarmonyOS has undergone four major iterations since it was first released in 2019, and this year's HarmonyOS version was released, Huawei really replaced the Linux kernel that has dominated the operating system ecology for decades with a pure self-developed HarmonyOS kernel, and the real "pure-blooded" self-developed domestic operating system has also been landed.
On Honor's side, various self-developed technologies have been accelerated, such as self-developed Qinghai Lake batteries, self-developed RF enhanced chips, self-developed giant rhino glass, self-developed folding screen hinge new structure, self-developed new materials, and self-developed Hongyan satellite communication technology...... From software, hardware to algorithms, behind the market share to the top, product strength must be passed, and self-developed technology is undoubtedly one of the key factors to ensure product strength.
As many analysts mentioned in the exchange, Huawei and Glory can return to the forefront of the market fundamental, is still the product, technology, channels, these "hard currency", a mobile phone channel business frankly said, "It's useless to have feelings, your things still have to be good, otherwise they can't sell, now consumers don't spend money, they really like things, recognize things, spend only more money than before." ”
Huawei's self-developed chips, self-developed operating systems, and self-developed satellite communication technologies, as well as the upgrade of the mobile phone experience brought about by Honor's various self-developed technologies, will inevitably become the guarantee of their respective mobile phone product strength, that is, the "selling point" for consumers.
Some analysts said that although Huawei and Honor were separated, Honor did "inherit a lot of Huawei's things" at that time, and it was not really "starting from 0", so the technical foundation is there.
Channels have always been the strength of the "Huawei system", although before the emergence of the "competitive machine", Huawei's mobile phone business has been relatively weak, but Huawei's channel system has always been maintained, and has not collapsed, so after having products, Huawei can still quickly distribute goods and achieve a rapid recovery in sales.
According to the joint statement of the year, Shenzhen Zhixin New Information Technology Co., Ltd., the acquirer of Glory, was jointly invested and established by Shenzhen Smart City Technology Development Group and more than 30 Glory agents and dealers. With this relationship, the channel will also be more motivated when shipping for glory, after all, to some extent, this is also "doing it for itself".
▲Joint statement issued on November 17, 2020 (partial)
In recent years, it has been reported that Glory will "press the goods" to the dealers, but a person in the mobile phone industry who has been in the industry for many years said that the premise of pressing the goods must also be expected to be good, that is, it can really be sold, and it can be helped once, but it is impossible to help every time, and the product must stand the test of the market before it will be recognized by the business, and the company is to make money, not to do charity.
It can be said that whether it is Huawei or Honor, although the two players who have returned to the top players are not "starting from 0" or starting from scratch, it also has the meaning of a strong man breaking his wrist and starting over.
In this process, both Huawei and Honor have focused on technology research and development. Whether it is Huawei's R&D investment of more than 160 billion yuan a year and nearly one trillion yuan in ten years, or Huawei's founder Ren Zhengfei's determination and practice to invest in basic research and recruit talents, or Honor's R&D team that has reached 8,000 people in three years of independence, ranking sixth in R&D intensity among the top 500 Chinese enterprises in 2022, the strength of hard-core technology innovation is still the core weapon of manufacturers in today's smartphone market.
In today's high-end development of the smartphone market, product power competition is more in the context of technological innovation competition, Huawei and Honor's "strength" is obviously in the right place, and the money is indeed spent on the "blade", once the opportunity comes, the two can really have the strength to seize the opportunity.
3. Can Apple "give a chance" to Huawei Glory to seize it? Mi OV will not sit back and wait to be "eaten"
Of course, the success of a quarter or a year is not enough for smartphone manufacturers to be a hero, for Huawei and Honor, the challenges behind are still arduous, there are still many "mountains" to face and climb, but at the same time, the industry is also brewing many opportunities, waiting for those who are prepared to seize.
As far as the current industry information is concerned, Huawei's blockbuster new products are faster and more than Honor, although the Mate 70 series will have to wait until September to be released, and Apple's iPhone 16 series is hard, but HuaweiP70 series will most likely be on sale in the first half of this year, including P70, P70 Pro, P70 Pro Art and other models.
According to Guo Mingqi's report, the P70 series will still use Huawei's self-developed Kirin chip, and the camera hardware specifications will be upgraded to a certain extent, and the shipments in 2024 are conservatively estimated to be around 10 million-12 million units, compared with the P60 series, a year-on-year increase of 150%.
▲Renders of Huawei P70 Pro are transmitted on the Internet
It is worth noting that Apple's "cutting orders" in 2024 and the slowdown of iterative upgrades are also key opportunities that Huawei can seize.
According to Kuo's survey, Apple's iPhone shipment estimate for 2024 has been lowered to 200 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and he judged that Apple may be the largest order reduction among mainstream mobile phone brands.
Although in the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, Apple's shipments and sales volume are the first in China, according to IDC and Counterpoint data, Apple's shipments and sales volume are declining year-on-year, of which the sales volume in the fourth quarter fell by nearly 10% year-on-year, and the activation volume decreased by more than 10% year-on-year.
Obviously, the iPhone 15 series doesn't sell as well as the iPhone 14 series.
In Kuo's view, the downward adjustment of iPhone shipments is mainly due to the structural challenges it faces, whether it is generative AI or folding screens, the two major incremental focuses of the high-end market, Apple has missed. In contrast, Huawei and Honor have layouts in both aspects, and both of them are "strong projects" of Huawei and Honor.
According to BCI data, in Q4 2023, Huawei and Honor ranked first and second in China's folding screen mobile phone market with a shipment share of 51.23% and 15.54% respectively. Huawei and Honor have applied large AI models, operating systems that support various generative AI functions, and corresponding flagship phones have also been on sale for a long time.
▲ 2023 Q4 China's folding screen mobile phone market shipment share, source: BCI
Kuo mentioned in the report that Huawei's return is also one of the main reasons for Apple's continued decline in shipments. Apple will not launch new iPhone models and generative AI-related applications until next year, 2025, at the earliest.
It can be said that for Huawei and Honor, 2024 is undoubtedly the best time to completely win Apple in the domestic high-end market.
Of course, in addition to the domestic market, the overseas market is also very critical for Huawei and Honor, and the overseas market may be more important for Honor.
Glory CEO Zhao Ming has been asked on various occasions about Honor's views on Huawei's return, Zhao Ming has also repeatedly mentioned that they welcome and are happy to see Huawei's return, they have an excellent opponent, and it is also a good thing for consumers in market competition, and the core of Honor is still to "do your best" and speak with technology and products.
It is true that Zhao Ming, as the CEO, said this, which is expected by everyone, but objectively, after Huawei's return, the sales of Glory's high-end machines will inevitably be affected to a certain extent, and Glory will take the overseas market as the "second main battlefield" in the future, which is also a wise choice, which happens to be staggered with Huawei.
As far as the current situation is concerned, it is still very difficult for Huawei to recover overseas markets in a short period of time, and there are many well-known obstacles that are difficult to overcome. But Glory lacks these "burdens" and can do more freely.
Zhao Ming said that the compound growth rate of Honor's overseas markets will exceed 50% in the next three to five years, which is really not low.
However, a technology blogger at Station B recently posted that the Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 listed in Europe has begun to use chips with the same chip specifications as the domestic Mate 60 series, and the recovery of Huawei products in overseas markets has begun to show its head.
▲Some technology bloggers said that the Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 listed in Europe has begun to use chips with the same chip specifications as the domestic Mate 60 series
In addition, with the gradual rollout of Huawei's self-developed chips in the mid-range market, Huawei will gradually recover its market share in more price segments other than flagships.
In the communication with Huawei insiders, we learned that at present, Huawei's internal "morale is high", and it used to work hard even if it didn't have a mobile phone, but now it has products that can be seen and touched, "I feel completely different, and I am more motivated". There is no doubt that the mobile phone business will inevitably be the core and key of Huawei's core in 2024.
It is foreseeable that if the chip production capacity can be further released, if the capacity bottleneck can be effectively broken, 2024 will most likely be a year of rapid development for Huawei's mobile phones.
It has been mentioned in many industry reports that some industry executives have revealed that Huawei's mobile phone shipment target in 2024 is 60 million to 70 million units, which is directly "doubled" from 2023. Guo Mingqi also predicts that Huawei's mobile phone shipments will reach at least 60 million units in 2024, becoming the manufacturer with the highest year-on-year shipment growth among global mobile phone brands in 2024.
Of course, Huawei and Honor are not all facing opportunities, analysts from domestic mainstream market research institutions told Zhidong that many of the Huawei Mate 60 series users are old users of Huawei mobile phones, according to the average seasonal cycle of 40 months, in fact, it is just the group of users before and after the sale of Huawei Kirin core out-of-print models three years ago.
In the face of future market competition and the acquisition of new users, Huawei's mobile phones need to come up with stronger product competitiveness, including chip performance can not stop at the initial "mid-range performance", and the advantages of satellite communication will also be quickly caught up by other manufacturers.
At the same time, the domestic mobile phone market is still a stock market, and the overall growth rate is low, and the growth rate is expected to be only in the low single digits in 2024. If Huawei's share grows rapidly, it will inevitably eat up the share of other brands.
▲The overall shipment volume and growth rate of China's smartphone market in the past five quarters, source: IDC
Will OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi sit back and wait to be "eaten", and why will they be eaten? Whether Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo will also adopt more aggressive response strategies are still full of uncertainty.
Finally, the smartphone market in 2024 is bound to be a year full of great "uncertainty" and a year of rapid change, which will be a test for every manufacturer.
The era of AI large models has arrived, and Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Samsung are all attacking AIGC, and each company is making rapid moves. In just half a year, all the above-mentioned leading manufacturers have completed the application and implementation of AI large models on the mobile phone side.
▲AI mobile phone market share forecast, source: Canalys
AI has become the biggest "certainty" and "certainty" in the smartphone industry in 2024, what is certain is that AI will definitely become the mainstream technology development trend, and the uncertainty is who can use it well and quickly, and have the last laugh.
Conclusion: China's mobile phone duo is back, and the market reshuffle is imminent
In the past three years, the experience of Huawei and Honor can be said to be two good stories in the history of China's smartphone development. The experience of Huawei and Honor reflects and witnesses the development of China's mobile phone industry, and it is of great significance for the development of domestic consumer electronics industry enterprises.
In the face of the strength of Huawei and Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other head players are also full of big moves, from the rapid pursuit of satellite communications, the AI large model shows its own tricks, the accelerated iteration of self-developed operating systems, to the super large cup of blockbuster new products are thrown to the market one after another. It is foreseeable that the smartphone market in 2024 will be more competitive and exciting.
Author | Yun Peng
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