Huddle 3.0 or has been opened!May everyone get rich in the Year of the Dragon - minimalist investment research

On the last trading day of the Year of the Rabbit, the policy factors driving the rise have all been "put on the shelves". And the rebound market in the past three days is mainly a "benefit for the Spring Festival of the family!"

There is no need to talk about feelings here, no need to talk about emotions, everyone has been full of emotions every day for the past two months, and we will talk about the events that history is about to reappear - huddle 3.0 or has been opened.

How scary is a liquidation?

Under the strong policy care of the management, the stock market rebounded sharply, once again pulling many investors back from the brink of liquidation. A brief look at the financing data shows that the scale of leverage reduction in 9 trading days exceeded 140 billion yuan.

There is another data, that is, the financing decline data in January, ranking 9th since 2015, reaching 78.765 billion yuan. In February, less than one-third of the scale of financing decline reached 108.374 billion yuan, ranking sixth.

Whether this is the majority of "active decline" or "passive decline" is the majority, we have no way to verify, but there has been no large-scale liquidation, which is a great luck.

However, the overseas market showed us once in March 2021, that is, the famous BillHwang liquidation incident. This guy leveraged and leveraged, and his wealth increased by 23 times in one year, and his stock position soared to more than 1 trillion yuan! What is even more coincidental is that this guy also likes to speculate in Chinese concept stocks......

On March 26, 2021, when Bill Hwang liquidated, he contributed the largest one-day personal loss in human history - $15 billion. According to the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index, BillHwang's liquidation has caused the speculation of Chinese concept stocks to slump from then on.

At the same time, my big A-share was immersed in the frenzy of fund huddles at that time, and it was also the high point in the next three years.

The butterfly effect behind this is extremely scary to think about......

There must be a big market when the leverage is cleared

Throughout the past decade, there have been three stages of leveraged liquidation of large A-shares, namely in May 2016, February 2019 and now. After the first two risks were lifted, they all walked out of the big market. In addition, these three times have a similar macro background (weak external demand and slow domestic demand), after the risk is lifted, a large level of positive has also been introduced, and the first two times out of the corresponding main line market.

At the beginning of 2016, there was a circuit breaker in A-shares, so that investors who had just recovered from the deep pit in 2015 fell into mental tension again, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by nearly 25% in 19 trading days, and the news of financing liquidation and pledge liquidation was everywhere. Finally, on January 29, the bottom was determined with the attitude of 100 shares, and the financing scale bottomed out on May 27 (820.232 billion yuan), and then opened the 1.0 era of northbound funds to grab core assets.

Under the devastation of the big A-share market in 2018, the investment confidence of shareholders was devastated. At that time, there was a relatively serious risk of pledge orders, and finally, under the various care measures of the management, the market ushered in a large-scale rebound on January 4, 2019, with the number of daily limits reaching 83. However, the low point of the two financial institutions appeared on February 1 (710.921 billion yuan), and then the market opened the well-known "carbon neutrality" huddle 2.0 era.

The policies have similarities

Leverage liquidation can only indicate that there is less bubble in the market, and is not a direct factor in the rise of the market. In the process of rebuilding confidence, the direction of the policy has played a decisive role in the main line of the market.

1. 2016 (main policy line: supply-side structural reform)

In the fourth quarter of 2015, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of the mainland fell below 7%, but with the year-on-year growth of real estate investment in February 2016 from negative to positive, the mainland manufacturing PMI exceeded 50% in March. With the proposal of supply-side structural reform, the mainland economy has ushered in marginal improvement.

2. 2019 (main policy line: carbon neutrality)

After a unilateral sharp decline in the stock market in 2018, A-shares started a round of rapid valuation repair at the beginning of 2019 under the stimulus of good news. After late April, the market diverged significantly, and the "core assets" dominated by high-performing blue-chip and technology stocks began to slowly emerge from the structural bull market.

Huddle 3.0 may be taking shape

"There is nothing new on Wall Street", iron-clad A-shares, flowing retail investors. A similar huddle script may be playing out right now:

1. The important driver of this round of leverage risk is financial derivatives represented by "snowball". The index corresponding to the product fell, triggering a "knock-in", resulting in increased market selling pressure, and the worry further spread from the liquidation of derivatives to the liquidation risk of two financial and pledge orders. Regulators have introduced timely policies to save the day, which is similar to the background in 2016 and 2019.

2. In the process of this round of leverage clearance, the management issued a blockbuster benefit, that is, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said that it would further study the inclusion of market value management in the assessment of the heads of central enterprises. Although there is little response from the current positive market, Xiao Er vaguely feels that everyone may have underestimated the power of this good news. I've mentioned it sporadically in the community before, and today I officially mentioned it:

The "market value management concept" is nothing more than four dimensions: [state-owned assets holding] + [field oligopoly] + [continuous dividends] + [valuation suppression]. The first three are well understood, and the fourth is a link that is generally overlooked at the moment. One of the subtexts of the need for market capitalization management is biased in market pricing.

What is prejudice? Can liquor pay dividends for a long time, but hydropower does not? Then why does the spotlight of the market give liquor to liquor? Kweichow Moutai's dividend yield is less than 2 percent, and Baosteel's average dividend yield can exceed 4 percent, so why is the applause given to Kweichow Moutai? This is bias, and it has also caused valuation suppression.

Therefore, the characteristics of this round of stock selection are those industries with high profits and high dividends that have been treated differently.

The next is the issue of continuity, which can be seen in two directions: one is the level of policy, and the other is the involution of enterprises in the domestic market.

After the Spring Festival, the two will successively put the companies in the central enterprises that meet the "huddle 3.0" into the community, and I believe that after experiencing extreme wind and rain, we will eventually see the rainbow.

Well, invest, be minimalist!

I wish you all a happy Chinese New Year, a happy family, and a prosperous Year of the Dragon!

(Minimalist Investment Research Society)

The content of this article is for reference only and is not intended as an investment basis.

National Business Daily