图片来源：Global Times
Summary:
In 2023, the photovoltaic results will be released, and some companies will have a net loss of more than 1 billion yuan and face the risk of delisting, some will lose 2 billion yuan in a single quarter, and some companies will turn losses into profits, and their net profits will increase by more than 20 times. What does this mixed report reveal?
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In 2023, the photovoltaic industry, known as the "best track", has won the growth of installed capacity, but it has been stumbling in the capital market.
This is true even if the new PV installed capacity exceeds the 200GW mark. Since the second half of 2023, there has hardly been a decent rebound, and "waist chop", "knee chop", and "ankle chop" have come one after another.
Investors said: It's falling.
Now, the phenomenon of "falling numb" is also reflected in the performance of listed photovoltaic companies in 2023, among the 58 companies that have released reports, 25 companies have seen a decline in profits, of which 14 companies have suffered losses.
Taking polysilicon leader Daqo Energy as an example, its revenue and net profit have both declined year-on-year since the first quarter of last year, and the performance report shows that net profit in 2023 will decrease by 69.67% to 70.19% year-on-year.
As for the reasons for the change in performance, Daqo Energy explained very clearly, mainly because the price of polysilicon fell sharply.
If the decline in Daqo Energy's net profit is still expected, then the performance of silicon wafer companies is still "thunderous", which makes many practitioners sigh "I didn't expect it".
Especially when silicon wafer giant TCL Zhonghuan disclosed that it expected a year-on-year decline of 29.6% to 38.4% in net profit in 2023, with a loss of about 2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter alone, its stock price fell directly on the same day and led to the collapse of the photovoltaic sector.
You must know that from 2018 to 2022, TCL Zhonghuan's share price soared tenfold, with a market value of more than 200 billion yuan. However, it is now down about three-quarters from its peak.
Caption: TCL Zhonghuan stock price change chart Source: Google Finance
For this reason, the reasons given by TCL Zhonghuan are also very sincere, the competition game in the industrial chain has intensified, the prices of the main products of the photovoltaic industry chain have dropped significantly, and it is difficult to make profits, and the one-time book loss caused by the disposal of the equity of the shareholding company has also had a great negative impact.
However, when some photovoltaic companies operated dismally, with a net loss of more than 1 billion yuan, some companies turned losses into profits, and their net profits increased by more than 20 times.
What information will this mixed PV 2023 performance forecast reveal to the development of PV companies in 2024?
01
Are these PV companies about to go bankrupt or delisted?
For the decline in performance, many photovoltaic companies have given the same reason: the price of the industrial chain has fallen.
October 2023 is a landmark milestone that has caused an uproar across the PV industry. This month, some PV companies bid for the first time an explosive low price of less than 1 yuan/W in the bidding for bifacial double-glass monocrystalline PERC modules.
Since then, module prices have continued to fall, cutting in half from the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2023, causing prices in the wafer and cell sectors, which were still profitable, to invert.
Caption: Photovoltaic module price trend (yuan/W) Source: China Securities Construction Investment Futures
The first to "fall" were cross-border enterprises.
According to incomplete statistics, since the second half of 2023, nearly 10 of the previously high-profile cross-border photovoltaic listed companies have successively terminated photovoltaic-related projects and refinancing plans, with the shortest cross-border time being only one month.
For example, in early 2023, Aowei Communications announced cross-border PV and announced a major asset restructuring, planning to invest in the construction of 5GW high-efficiency heterojunction solar cells and modules through the establishment of a joint venture with Shanghai Entropy. In less than half a year, the company terminated the major asset restructuring plan of the project.
There is also Letong Co., Ltd., which is engaged in packaging and printing inks, and has planned to invest 4.7 billion cross-border photovoltaics in July 2023. Just one month later, the company significantly reduced the investment amount to 12.5 million yuan, which is almost equivalent to canceling the crossover.
If cross-border companies "fall" due to the high technical barriers of photovoltaics, then more professional photovoltaic companies are also facing bankruptcy crises.
Some institutions predict that although the growth of PV installations in 2024 is at the lowest point of module prices, which is a loss called trading, the top 10 leading companies in module shipments will still occupy most of the market share due to their financial and technological advantages, which is relatively safe.
The most dangerous are the medium-sized PV companies ranked 10-20, which are selling at a loss and have no orders, and may face bankruptcy or delisting.
A veteran of the photovoltaic industry told Sina Finance that among medium-sized enterprises, Suntech, EGing Optoelectronics, Zhengxin Optoelectronics, and TCL Zhonghuan's Huansheng may have more difficulties in 2024.
Among the photovoltaic companies that have disclosed their results in 2023, Jiayu shares have become a typical representative of "delisting risk". Its report shows that the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 1.2~1.5 billion yuan, and the net assets at the end of 2023 are expected to be negative.
According to the regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, if the audited net assets at the end of the most recent fiscal year are negative, the listed company's stock trading will be subject to a delisting risk warning.
02
These companies bet on the right treasure and get a wave of dividends
Although some photovoltaic companies are losing money and facing the risk of delisting, judging from the disclosed results in 2023, there are still many companies whose net profit attributable to the parent company has increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
For example, GCL Integration and JinkoSolar disclosed that they are expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of more than 100% in net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023, while Risen Energy and Trina Solar will also achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company by more than 40%.
It is worth noting that these companies that have achieved growth have some things in common, that is, they will focus on the layout and increase the proportion of N-type advanced production capacity and structural optimization in 2023.
Generally speaking, companies that are the first to achieve technological breakthroughs and have the ability to mass produce in the process of technology iteration will be the first to benefit. In other words, these companies have grown as a result of the first wave of technological dividends.
At present, it is the technology transition period between P-type cells and N-type cells, and the mass production efficiency of the three technical routes of N-type cells, TOPCon, HJT, and IBC cells, has already broken through the theoretical limit of PERC cells.
At this time, whoever is the first to press the technical route of the N-type battery will win. JinkoSolar became the first group of leaders in this "melee".
In 2019, JinkoSolar began to lay out the TOPCon route in N-type cells. By the end of 2023, TOPCon has a planned production capacity of 55GW, accounting for more than 60% of shipments, ranking first in the industry and successfully achieving large-scale mass production.
Source: Lang Ge Finance
According to the data, JinkoSolar's profit in 2023 alone exceeded the total profit of the previous four years. The release of TOPCon production capacity not only supported JinkoSolar's performance, but also allowed its module shipments to surpass LONGi Green Energy's return to the first place in the industry, becoming a rare sample of companies that can still grow rapidly in 2023.
Due to the expansion of demand for TOPCon battery silver paste in 2023, its performance has risen rapidly, and its net profit is expected to increase by 2178.05%~2408.95% year-on-year in 2023, which is currently the largest increase in the company.
Caption: Performance of photovoltaic raw materials & auxiliary materials enterprises Source: Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network
However, companies that are also N-type, but do not firmly choose TOPCon technology, have seen the opposite performance.
Taking Aiko shares, which bet on BC battery technology, as an example, the net profit in 2023 will be 735 million, a year-on-year decrease of 66.71%, of which the net profit in the first three quarters will be 1.887 billion, which means a loss of 1 billion in the fourth quarter alone.
According to statistics from Langge Finance, Aiko's ABC module and cell production capacity is planned to reach 25GW in 2023, but the actual shipment is only 0.7-0.8GW. It seems that the product was made, but it was not sold.
Compared with TOPCon battery technology, BC batteries are difficult to produce and have high technical requirements, and have not yet formed a scale effect. HJT, on the other hand, requires a complete rebuild of the production line, which is the most expensive investment.
Therefore, in the context of PV cost reduction and efficiency increase, TOPCon cell technology has basically become the optimal solution.
03
These companies are all red and make money steadily
Compared with the enterprise links of the photovoltaic industry chain, the subdivision track of photovoltaic inverters and brackets has the most stable performance. Whether it is the decline in the price of the industrial chain or the iteration of battery technology, in the 2023 performance report, the performance of such companies is very bright, which can be described as: making a lot of money steadily.
Taking Arctech as an example, its main business is the design, research and development, production and sales of photovoltaic mounting systems. The company expects to achieve a net profit of about 354 million yuan in 2023, an increase of about 696.70% year-on-year.
As of the end of 2023, Arctech has a total of about 4.7 billion yuan of orders in hand, due to the strong demand for new installed capacity in the global photovoltaic centralized ground power station market, and the market demand for photovoltaic brackets has also expanded.
Among the photovoltaic inverter companies, Sungrow Power Supply increased by 157%~187% year-on-year with a net profit of 9.3~10.3 billion yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-profits was even more eye-catching, with a year-on-year increase of 200%.
As for the reasons for the growth of performance, Sungrow said that it benefited from the rapid development of global new energy. What is more noteworthy is that in addition to photovoltaic inverter products, energy storage business has become a new growth pole for inverter companies.
According to the "Energy Storage Industry Research White Paper 2023", in 2022, Sungrow's energy storage system shipments ranked first among Chinese enterprises for seven consecutive years, and won the global energy storage system shipment crown for the first time.
It seems that the second growth pole is also crucial for the development of photovoltaic enterprises.
Professor Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, believes that the photovoltaic industry goes through a development cycle every five years, and enterprises cannot press the treasure on one route.
In general, the photovoltaic industry chain in 2023 is soaring on the road of "irrationality", and it is difficult for corporate profits to become the norm, resulting in weak market confidence, but for high-quality enterprises with cost advantages, the performance may be the last wave of adjustment at this time.
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Disclaimer:
This article is for academic communication and dissemination only and does not constitute investment advice