Facts have once again proved that it is impossible for the Americans to give up their strategy of using China's Taiwan to contain China's rise! Recently, Biden nominated Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet, as the new candidate for Indo-Pacific commander. In accordance with the procedure, before the selection of candidates was determined, the Senate of the US Congress held a hearing.
Perhaps for fear that it would not be passed in the Senate, Admiral Samuel Paparo went so far as to make nonsense when he openly talked about the "Taiwan Strait issue" at this congressional hearing. He did not hide his stance and attitude in the slightest, openly claiming that his mission is to help China's Taiwan region develop its "self-defense capability" and prevent the settlement of Taiwan affairs by means of "force" or "threat of force." At the same time, the US military is also ready to "assist Taiwan" if necessary.
It can be said that this remarks by Admiral Samuel Paparo are quite blatant and full of malice, and the translation is: The United States will not allow Chinese mainland to "reunify" Taiwan by force! At the same time, it is also ready to assist Taiwan when necessary. Moreover, the views of Admiral Samuel Paparo do represent the attitude of the US military. If Admiral Samuel Paparo officially becomes the new commander of the Indo-Pacific, it will inevitably have a major impact on "Taiwan Strait affairs". We should remain highly vigilant in this regard.
Not only the US military, but recently, Professor Fiona of the University of Pennsylvania in the United States also put forward a "ridiculous" point. But if you look at this idea closely, it may be more than just ridiculous.
Fiona said: If the US military blocks the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz for six months, it can force Chinese mainland to abandon the use of force against Taiwan. Although Fiona is only a scholar, this is not an academic hypothesis, but reveals the attitude of the US top level towards the current situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, the strategy proposed by Professor Fiona will not only have a far-reaching impact on the future of Chinese mainland and Taiwan, but also pose a potential threat to the stability and peace of the international community.
Because the Strait of Hormuz is the main route connecting the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, it is about 150 kilometers long from east to west, 125 kilometers at its widest point from north to south, and only about 56 kilometers at its narrowest point. However, this refers to the width of the strait, not the width of the channel. Because there are a large number of islands, reefs and shallow reefs in the strait, the channel is safe to navigate, and the width of a single channel is only 2.5 nautical miles, but it carries one-third of the world's oil transportation.
According to statistics, 18.5 million barrels of oil are transported through the city every day, which is equivalent to 1/5 of the world's daily oil consumption. Therefore, if the Strait of Hormuz is suddenly closed, the whole world will be in turmoil, even the United States and Europe will not be spared!
Therefore, this is also a hole card for Iran against the United States. In fact, there is no need for the United States to do anything at all, as soon as the United States provokes Iran, the Persians immediately threaten to block the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Yemen's geographical location is also very important, it is perfectly stuck at the mouth of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. With the relationship between Iran and the Yemeni Houthis, if they work together, they will form a situation of two ghosts closing the door, and a barrel of oil will not be able to be shipped, so that Europe and Israel will be completely chaotic!
To make matters worse, Iran doesn't even need to send warships, it can shut down sea traffic at any time by filling the shipping lanes with mines or placing a few rows of anti-aircraft guns or rocket artillery on the shore. At present, Iran has deployed heavy troops on the northern shore of the strait, including nearly 100 anti-ship missiles with a range of 360 kilometers, which can completely control the entire strait, even if the US military wants to give him three points!
So, from this point of view, Professor Fiona's proposal is really ridiculous. However, her other proposal is still a relatively big threat to us. This is the blockade of the Strait of Malacca!
The Strait of Malacca is a long strait located between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, and is jointly administered by Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. For China, the Strait of Malacca is an important energy transportation corridor and is known as the "maritime lifeline".
Because, the amount that enters the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca is three times that of the Suez Canal and five times that of the Panama Canal, and 70% of the oil and gas energy imported by the mainland from the Middle East comes from the Strait of Malacca.
Therefore, once the United States blocks the Strait of Malacca, it will have a great impact on our energy resources and will have a significant impact on China's economy. Moreover, the United States does have the ability to do so. In 2019, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and U.S. President Donald Trump renewed a major defense agreement that allows the U.S. military to continue using Singapore's air and naval bases until 2035. And, if nothing else, the two countries will still renew the agreement after it expires.
However, China has long been prepared for this. At present, the Chinese side has prepared at least four other paths.
The first is through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Energy sourced from the Middle East is transported to the Gwadar port in Pakistan, and then transported by land or pipeline to China via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The second is the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline.
In June 2009, the mainland signed an agreement with Myanmar to build crude oil pipelines, storage and transportation facilities, ancillary facilities and other infrastructure facilities in Myanmar. Specifically, a large-scale crude oil terminal will be built on Mader Island, southeast of the port of Kok Phiu in Myanmar. In this way, crude oil imported from the Middle East, or mined in Myanmar, can pass through Myanmar's Rakhine State, Maggui State, Mandalay Province and Shan State, and then enter Ruili on the mainland from the border area of the two countries, and then extend to Kunming, Yunnan Province.
Although the above two passages bypass the Strait of Malacca, they cannot bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Although China has Iran as a good brother, there are still certain hidden dangers.
This brings us to the third direction - Russia. The Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline enters Mohe (Xing'an Town) in Heilongjiang Province from Skovorodino in Russia, and then leads from Mohe to Daqing (Moda Line), with a total length of about 1,000 kilometers. In 2021, through this pipeline, Russia delivered about 30 million tons of crude oil to the mainland.
There is also a natural gas pipeline between China and Russia, which runs from Blagoveshchensk in Russia into Heihe in Heilongjiang Province. At present, China, Russia and Mongolia are negotiating on the "Power of Siberia 2 pipeline" project, and it is estimated that construction will start soon.
The fourth direction is in the northwest of China. There are at least four oil and gas pipelines here, they are the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline and the Central Asia natural gas A/B/C pipeline.
The China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline starts from Atyrau in western Kazakhstan, passes through Kenkiyak and Atasu, and reaches Alashankou in Xinjiang, with a total length of 2,798 kilometers. In 2021, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline transported 10.97 million tons of crude oil to the mainland.
The three lines of the Central Asian natural gas pipeline A/B/C are imported into the mainland in parallel, and the gas sources come from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In 2021, the Central Asian Natural Gas Pipeline A/B/C Line 3 delivered 44.1 billion cubic meters of gas to the mainland.
And that's not all! Therefore, although Professor Fiona is a scholar, she does not have much knowledge, and she is not ashamed to say it, which shows that she is just a frog at the bottom of a well!
And the United States wants to force China to make concessions on the Taiwan issue by controlling the world's energy channels, which is even more wishful thinking! Because China will never use principles for benefits, still less will it compromise on its core interests. Therefore, it is better for both the US military and the American academic community to understand this!