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It's bottoming out, it's really bottoming out

It's bottoming out, it's really bottoming out

The following article comes from Xingtu Financial Research Institute, the author Xue Hongyan

Since the beginning of the year,

A

Stock investors generally suffered heavy losses. enter

2

Since then, it has experienced several extreme kills, and the amount of money lost in just a few trading days is no less than that

1

Moon.

Some time ago, the national team has been bailing out the market and trying to buy Shanghai and Shenzhen

300etf

, trying to buy in the special valuation, but the effect has not been good. Many investors complained, "Can you stop saving it, let the market naturally bottom out", "It's better to give a happy one than to cut meat with a blunt knife".

In the past two days, the relevant departments have spoken intensively, the national team has increased its buying efforts, and the market has risen sharply.

2

moon

6

sun

-7

Day, all the best

A

Total increase

6.16%

Shanghai

300

, CSI

500

and CSI

1000

The cumulative increase of the index is:

4.47%

14.56%

and

11.76%

, which is in line with the typical characteristics of over-falling rebound.

At the industry level, the pharmaceutical and biological, national defense and military industries all rose more than in two days

10%, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics rose more

8 percentage points, banks, textiles and apparel, real estate, coal and other areas of the increase lagged behind. The over-falling sector led the rise in the early stage, which is in line with the logic of the over-falling rebound.

It's bottoming out, it's really bottoming out

After two days of rising in a row, has the market bottomed out?

There are various signs that the market has bottomed out in the short term, and investors can be optimistic.

The main contradiction in the market in the near future lies in the dilemma of micro liquidity in the stock market, with strong selling power and weak buying power. In the short term, the power of buyers and sellers has reversed, the selling power has weakened, the buying power has increased, and the upward trend is expected to strengthen from negative feedback to positive feedback.

At the bottom of the stock market, the sellers are mainly vulnerable funds, either psychologically fragile or the funds themselves are fragile (such as leveraged funds). For every point of this part of the chips, the pressure on the market will be less, and the probability of the market bottoming out will increase by one point.

Psychologically fragile funds are mainly retail investors and basic investors

, mostly belongs

2020-2021

Novice investors who enter the market at the high point of the year. Bought at a high point, and then experienced a three-year decline, missed countless opportunities to cut meat and sell, and survived until now, relying on the belief that "mean reversion" and "there must be a big rise after a big fall".

But novice investors have only embraced these beliefs, and their beliefs are not strong. In the past six months, regulators have stepped up their efforts to crack down on violations of laws and regulations, exposing a large number of illegal operations. Under the impact of a large number of violations, the stock market "the basic system is not solid enough, and the cost of violations and violations is low" has become a common perception, which objectively weakens investors' last thoughts on the "bull market".

Take a look at the recent comments from stockholders, and more and more the finger is pointing at the reform of various basic systems of the stock market. Many people believe that these things do not change,

A

There is no bull market in stocks, these things do not change, and it is never too late to exit. Recently, whenever there is news about the chaos in the stock market, it will always be accompanied by a group of investors who cut their flesh and leave the market.

Whoever started the trouble should end it. Recently, the action of filling loopholes has been accelerating.

2024

year

1

moon

24

Wang Jianjun, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, made it clear that it is necessary to firmly establish the concept of putting investors first, and always take the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors, as the top priority of their work

2024

In the annual system work conference, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) clearly stated that the concept of "investor-oriented" runs through all aspects of the whole process, and indirectly responded to the market's concerns about "

A

stocks have long been heavy on financing and light on investment".

At the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has intensively stated that it will "severely crack down on major illegal acts such as market manipulation, malicious short-selling, insider trading, and fraudulent issuance", and rarely proposed to "let counterfeiters go bankrupt and sit in prison", which is also trying to reverse the market's expectation of "low cost of violating laws and regulations".

Freezing three feet, it is not a day's cold, but it is not too late to make amends. The adjustment of the regulatory focus and the timely response and statement of key issues will play a role in boosting investor confidence and alleviating the pressure of selling at the bottom.

In addition, the three white candlesticks change confidence, and retail investors are susceptible to market sentiment. The stock market has risen sharply in the past two days, which is also very effective in boosting sentiment and alleviating pessimistic selling pressure.

Another type of vulnerable capital is leveraged funds

。 This part of the investors, generally right

A

The stock market is full of confidence, otherwise it will not increase leverage. The solution to their problems is to alleviate the liquidity crisis.

only

A

In terms of leveraged stock funds, the market is mainly worried about snowball products, stock pledges and margin trading.

Snowball products are the first to explode, and the risk has been basically cleared. Considering the snowball product falls

30%

will knock in and universally bring

3

Multiplier leverage, assuming pegged to CSI

1000

index, to CSI

1000

Lowest in recent times

4178

Point calculation, corresponding

5968

The snowball products bought above the point have reached the knock-in threshold. imply

2023

year

11

Issued months ago

2

The maturity products have basically exploded.

The risk of stock pledge is controllable. According to the data released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, since the beginning of the year, the scale of stock pledges has been liquidated

2740.32

10,000 yuan, the amount is very small. The market has fallen like this, and there are no problems with stock pledges, which can be interpreted as the risk has not been exposed, or it can be interpreted as the situation is stable and the risk is controllable. Now, unless the index continues to fall sharply, the risk of stock pledge is controllable.

From the perspective of margin financing and securities lending, the balance of the two financial institutions has also declined rapidly recently, and it has arrived at the beginning of the year

February

6 days down

185.9 billion yuan.

February

On the 6th, the stock market rose sharply, and the balance of the two financial institutions still declined

16.9 billion yuan, some financing orders chose to rebound and sell, and continued to increase the guarantee ratio.

February

On the 6th, the ratio of financial guarantee was increased

11.7 percentage points to

233.7% expected

February

The 7-day close was further improved to

240% near, the safety cushion is getting higher and higher.

It's bottoming out, it's really bottoming out

At the same time, some brokerages began to respond to the call of supervision and took the initiative to lower the liquidation line, which is expected to greatly alleviate the pressure of forced selling of financial positions.

On the whole, the negative feedback from the financing disk has basically come to an end.

To sum up, the selling pressure of the two vulnerable funds has eased, coupled with the continuous support of the national team to buy, the short-term liquidity crisis in the market has basically passed.

From the perspective of capital buying, in the early crash, many bullish funds temporarily avoided the edge, postponed the purchase decision, and waited for the right side. At present, the over-falling rebound market starts, the more it rises, the higher the certainty on the right side, and the stronger the buying momentum of this kind of funds.

Therefore, as far as the current market situation is concerned, the rise itself will bring about the optimization of the capital structure, reduce the selling pressure, increase the buying momentum, and then drive a faster and greater rise, forming a positive feedback.

With this positive feedback, trends can be self-reinforcing. Once the market bottoms out, it really bottoms out.

After a storm, it's always a cloudless sunny day. When the rain passes, it's time to attack!

[Note: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.] In any case, the information or opinions expressed herein are for an exchange of views only and do not constitute investment advice to any person. 】

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#2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.., wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, .1)}} @media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media( prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}. rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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