On February 7, 2024, the three major indexes extended their rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.44% to close at 2,829.70 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.93% to close at 8,708.24 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.37% to close at 1,707.02 points. Today's turnover of the two cities was 1,021.9 billion, an increase of 95.6 billion from the previous trading day, and the turnover returned to one trillion after two months. Northbound funds bought a net of 1.684 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 959 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net purchase of 725 million yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
At the beginning of this year, seeing it build a high-rise building and feasting guests, the pessimism of assets seems to be completely unconnected.
When the water of the market was still trying to pour into the pursuit of the secret of micro-cap stocks, the rapid decline came, and the "snowball" knocked into it became a butterfly that stirred its wings, and the micro-cap index quickly erased the excess return of the past year in a month, and the excess return of the CSI 2000 and other small and medium-cap indices in the past two years has also become negative.
When the stock market was caught in a liquidity dilemma and quickly bottomed out, many investors shouted to witness history, and the floating loss in a month was more than in a year, but the bull market of bonds went deeper and farther, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds once hit a historical low of 2.4%, and bond yields of all maturities ushered in a downward range.
When the pessimism of A-shares is pervasive, the irrational spiral has formed a "fearful" market trend, and the valuation is extremely low but investors are afraid to buy it, many cross-border ETFs have experienced rare and large premiums, moving towards "greed".
After all, this is the world of capital, money never sleeps, the gears of fate are always turning, no market, which type of asset, which strategy can win a single bet, and to be able to do "just right" is the most difficult art in the world.
First, "extremely clever and modest".
Simple and extreme things tend to be sexy, and they also have a lower cognitive cost. It's just that such things are often fragile and easy to subvert, and Wangwen Shengyi is the biggest misunderstanding of the way of the "mean", "people are not good for a thousand days, and flowers are not red for a hundred days", which tells us to do a good job in the allocation of assets.
Second, "don't go to the place where everyone is fighting".
Looking back at the history of the capital market, excessive consensus expectations often take a sharp turn suddenly, and behind each "frenzy", there will be a painful clearing to digest, but after full clearance, it is often the beginning of a new journey. What we can do is to remain optimistic when we are depressed and vigilant when we are excited.
Looking closer, in the "disheartened" moment on the board:
We have seen the influx of incremental funds, and Central Huijin Company announced that it has recently expanded the scope of ETF holdings, and will continue to increase its holdings and expand the scale of its holdings;
Seeing the sincerity and determination of the policy, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 13 policies in three days, from the optimization and adjustment of securities lending business to the severe punishment of malicious short-selling, from the enhancement of investment value of listed companies to the guidance of various institutions to enter the market more vigorously, no matter how big or small;
Seeing the historical experience of the bottom, the shareholders of listed companies who have "insight into the fundamentals" of their own companies have set off a wave of buybacks and "bought the bottom" in a big way;
I also saw the objective law of the cycle, in any case, the adjustment space and decline of this round of bear market have reached the level of "clearing" in history.
All this gives a clear signal that the sun brewing in the depths may be shining, and maybe the cow is really coming.