On the one hand, the Philippines has sent supplies to the "Sierra Madre", and the Philippine media has frequently hyped up China-related topics, and on the other hand, Marcos Jr. has visited Vietnam in an attempt to win over Vietnam over the South China Sea issue. However, as the "internal and external troubles" faced by Marcos Jr. became more severe and the risks became more and more serious, Marcos Jr. seemed to be thinking about changing his strategy.
[Mrs. Marcos Jr. attends the reception]
Marcos Jr.'s government sends a signal of goodwill?
A few days ago, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines held a Chinese New Year reception that attracted attention from the outside world, because at this reception, the Philippine government demonstrated an unusually high-level way of participation, which undoubtedly sent an important message to the outside world, that is, in the current complex context of China-Philippines relations, the Philippines seems to be trying to seek a more active diplomatic strategy. Marcos Jr.'s wife personally led a delegation that included high-ranking military and political circles, many of whom were important figures in key departments, the report said. Moreover, Marcos Jr. and Philippine Vice President Sarah Duterte, although they did not attend, both expressed their New Year congratulations in writing and video at the reception.
At a sensitive moment when there are frictions between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea issue, the Philippine side has made these remarks as a signal of goodwill to China. Let's compare Sarah's experience a few months ago, when tensions between China and the Philippines over Second Thomas Shoal were raging, and Sarah recorded a video message at an event held at the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines.
【Marcos Jr.)
Combined with the background of the situation at that time, it is not difficult to see that Sarah's original intention was to ease the situation and let the relationship between China and the Philippines not be limited to differences between the two sides. As a result, a very normal diplomatic speech was accused of "treason" by some "pro-American politicians" in the Philippines. As a result, the political environment in the Philippines is already quite polarized. Especially on how to deal with relations with China and the South China Sea.
The recent New Year reception, Marcos Jr. and Sarah's joint congratulations, as well as the participation of high-level delegations, seem to indicate a strong signal that the Philippine government wants to change its current policy and adopt a more positive and friendly way to communicate with the Chinese side. Marcos Jr. may have made this change for two reasons. First of all, although the Philippines has the "backing" of the United States behind it, it is precisely because of the frequent contacts between the two countries at the military level that the Philippine military has a strong "pro-American" color, so that a situation of polarization in the political environment has been formed. Therefore, the Philippines has always wanted to find a way to maintain its traditional alliance with the United States without "absolutely depending" on the United States, so that the Philippines can have greater room for strategic autonomy.
[Duterte blames Marcos Jr.]
Marcos Jr. is caught in "internal and external troubles"
Second, Marcos Jr. is now mired in "internal and external troubles", and the political struggle in the Philippines is directed at Marcos Jr. Marcos Jr. has vigorously pushed ahead with the constitutional amendment plan since taking office, a move that has provoked strong opposition, and Duterte has taken an extremely tough stance on the matter. It is reported that Duterte held a rally in his hometown of Mindanao and publicly accused Marcos Jr.'s constitutional amendment as a move to betray national interests and undermine Philippine democracy. He also vowed to rally political forces on Mindanao to advance the island's "independence" movement.
Duterte also stressed that in order to avoid bloodshed, he will peacefully achieve Mindanao's "independence goal" by holding a local referendum in accordance with UN procedures, and has even named North Davao MP Alvarez as the leader of the independence movement. And once Mindanao really reaches the point of "independence", a long-term conflict may break out between the Philippine government forces and the local armed forces. In addition, given that Mindanao is the second largest island in the Philippines, with abundant resources and a significant proportion of the population, its independence movement will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the country.
[Philippine Acting Foreign Minister reads Marcos Jr.'s congratulatory message]
As a result, the Marcos Jr. administration has been extremely angry at Duterte's appeal, and some officials have publicly stated that the government will not hesitate to use all necessary forces to quell any attempt to split the country, and even the top military officials rushed to Mindanao overnight to take over military power. In fact, Duterte's call is less likely to succeed, and more like using Mindanao to negotiate terms with Marcos Jr.
But it is precisely because of this that for Marcos Jr., the internal strife has distracted him from devoting all his energy to external affairs such as the South China Sea. Under such circumstances, Marcos Jr.'s overtures are more like putting aside the South China Sea issue first, resolving the domestic chaos first, and letting his wife lead a group of high-ranking officials to show goodwill to China, probably hoping that China can help communicate with Duterte and mediate the conflict.