The company most like Moutai, with a market share of more than 90% and a gross profit margin of 85%, is seriously underestimated!

From a global point of view, it seems that only technology giants such as Microsoft, Intel, and Apple have maintained their competitive advantages for more than 10 years. Few other tech companies have a moat.

However, many big bull stocks for more than ten years have come out of the A-share consumption track, such as Kweichow Moutai, which has risen 100 times in 10 years from 2012 to 2020.

We found that the rally of Apple and Microsoft is somewhat similar to Kweichow Moutai, and they all have the ability to cross the bull and bear anti-cycle.

In other words, U.S. technology companies are much like A-share consumer companies.

In this case, is it possible that A-shares will have long-term technology bull stocks like Microsoft and Apple in the future?

First of all, we need to figure out what do tech bull stocks have in common?

Although the market structure and national conditions of A-shares and U.S. stocks are different, we can still find some commonalities from technology bull stocks.

The six companies with the largest market capitalization in the U.S. stock market have been counted before, all of which are technology stocks, and these companies are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook (now Meta), and Alibaba.

The largest technology stocks in the A-share Shanghai 300 include Wingtech Technology, Goodix Technology, Oriental Fortune, ZTE, China Unicom, GigaDevice, North Huachuang and other companies.

It can be observed that the top 6 technology stocks in the U.S. stock market capitalization are all directly dealing with consumers (To C), while 99% of these companies in A-shares are dealing with zf and enterprises, that is, To B.

To B's technology companies can only rise if they follow the industry trend, so there is a bottleneck in market value, while To C's technology companies do not, so Apple and Microsoft have become global technology giants.

Therefore, the characteristics of long-term technology bull stocks are: directly providing products or technical services to consumers, and having a technology or product moat. FOR EXAMPLE, APPLE'S VARIOUS ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS AND MICROSOFT'S OFFICE SOFTWARE.

Looking at A-shares, Kingsoft Office is the technology company that best meets the characteristics, or the technology company that is most like Moutai.

1. The leading domestic office software, China's office, has 586 million consumers

Kingsoft Office is recognized as a leading domestic office software, and its core product, WPS Office, is directly benchmarked against Microsoft's office, in addition to Kingsoft Docs, mind maps, Kingsoft knowledge base and other office products, as well as Kingsoft digital office platform solutions.

The company has accumulated more than 30 years of technical experience and professional advantages in office software, and its main products are all independently developed and have intellectual property rights.

At present, the desktop users of WPS are on par with Microsoft, and the mobile users even exceed Microsoft. According to statistics, WPS has a market share of more than 90% in the domestic mobile office software market.

As of the third quarter of 2023, the number of monthly active devices of WPS Office was 589 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%.

Therefore, from 2019 to 2023, the company's operating income will increase from 1.58 billion yuan to 4.582 billion yuan, and its net profit will increase from 401 million yuan to 1.301 billion yuan, with a rapid growth rate.

2. The gross profit margin is as high as 85%, which is comparable to Moutai

Kingsoft Office's business model is very good, it can produce certain products and services at an appropriate cost, meet the high-intensity, high-frequency and high-stability needs of target customers, and form stable profits and cash flows.

The company provides customers with software licensing services or customized services, does not need to purchase fixed assets, raw materials, and its products can be sold infinitely after being developed, and the cost of maintenance and update is very low.

Moreover, it is a leading office software in China, with a strong voice and a gross profit margin of more than 80%, with a gross profit margin of 85.65% in the first three quarters of 2023.

Therefore, even if the R&D expense ratio exceeds 30% and the sales expense rate is 20%, the company's net profit margin can be maintained at about 30%, far ahead of Foxit Software and Yonyou Network.

It is worth mentioning that the company's main revenue comes from personal office service subscriptions, office software product licensing, and advertising business, of which the gross profit margin of advertising business is about 70%, and the gross profit margin of the other two businesses is as high as 80% and 90%.

From 2017 to 2022, the proportion of the company's subscription business revenue increased from 23% to 71%, and the proportion of advertising business revenue decreased from 39.3% to 7.9%.

In the first half of 2023, the revenue of the three major businesses accounted for 76.89%, 16.63%, and 6.47% respectively.

3. The product is more in line with the demand, and the domestic replacement is the absolute leader

In addition to personal and enterprise use, office software is also a commonly used application software in the information and innovation industry, and Kingsoft Office is the main supplier.

From the perspective of security, domestic office software is more suitable for the information and innovation industry, and from the perspective of products, domestic office software technology has been very mature, and it is imperative to replace foreign products.

In contrast, Kingsoft's advantages are obvious, its office software matches domestic chips and operating systems, and is suitable for all domestic operating systems, while Microsoft Office and Google do not support it.

To sum up, what Kingsoft Office can do, foreign countries can't, this is the biggest confidence.

Since 2021, the information innovation industry has entered a stage of rapid development, of which the market size of information innovation office software will be 36.7 billion yuan in 2021 and is expected to reach 38.9 billion yuan in 2027.

The company's products have been adapted to the mainstream information and innovation system products, and in the future, with the penetration rate of domestic software, the company will replace foreign products step by step.

In the future, the AI business is expected to further empower the company.

Artificial intelligence is the main theme in the next 3 to 5 years, and technology companies will either advance or retreat.

In April 2023, Kingsoft Office announced the launch of WPS AI, which will be applied to the next generation of online content collaboration and light documents. WPS AI can generate content from 0 to 1, modify content in multiple rounds of dialogue, and process (edit/rewrite/augment) existing documents.

At the end of 2023, WPS AI will be embedded in all products one after another, and it is expected to be fully implemented in 2024, which is expected to bring new performance increments.

Let's take a look at the company's valuation (FYI).

Since Kingsoft Office has certain consumption attributes and its performance is relatively stable and predictable, we can use the dynamic P/E ratio to value the company.

As of February 6, 2024, the company's total market value is 105.1 billion yuan, and the net profit in 2023 is about 1.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a valuation of about 80 times, which is in the undervaluation range of the past five years. The average valuation of the company is around 170 times.

Previous research on a number of industry leaders found that for the performance of the leader, in the case of the market is not optimistic, the market value shrinks by about 70%, without the performance of the leader, may be a little worse, such as China Duty Free, the market value has shrunk by 80%.

The market value of Kingsoft Office in June 2023 will reach a maximum of about 244 billion yuan, and the current market value is still 105 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 60%. The market value evaporated by 140 billion yuan in about 7 months, and the situation is very miserable.

Moreover, the company's revenue and net profit growth rates are expected to be 17.94% and 16.37% respectively in 2023, with good performance and upward support in market value.

It can be said that the company is the underestimated leader.

Finally, to sum up.

With a market share of more than 90% in the domestic office software market and a gross profit margin of up to 85%, Kingsoft Office has the genes of long-term bull stocks in science and technology, and can be called the Moutai of the science and technology industry.

In the future, with the support of AI and information innovation, the performance is expected to further improve. And the company's market value has shrunk by 60% in less than 1 year, and it is an undervalued domestic alternative leader.

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