Battery ETF (561910) rose 2.2% in early trading, Kesda, Tianhua New Energy, and Deye shares all rose more than 5%, and institutions: optimistic about the lithium battery sector
On February 7, 2024, the opening of the new electric sector continued to be strong. As of 9:43, the battery ETF (561910) rose 2.27%, and the constituent stocks Keshida, Tianhua New Energy and Deye rose more than 5%.
Image Credit: Snowball
[The supply and demand of lithium ore have weakened, and the significance of independent and controllable lithium resources is highlighted]
On the supply side, domestic lithium carbonate production last week decreased slightly compared with the previous week. Most of the domestic and foreign mining enterprises have stopped working, and their own mining enterprises have gradually stopped working, and a few are still in production, and the weekly output has declined month-on-month. Overseas, the financial reports of Australian mines have been released one after another, in addition to Core's downward revision of production guidance, Pilbara and MRL production are increasing, and costs are also decreasing. The recent news of supply disruptions has mainly focused on the reduction of capital expenditures by several major lithium miners, but it has not affected projects under construction. On the demand side, the first quarter is the off-season for demand, the operating rate of cathode factories is low, and some orders in February are pre-positioned in January, and the signs of downstream replenishment are more obvious, but they are also relatively cautious. The battery sector is still facing destocking pressure, and it is difficult to increase demand in the absence of a large number of downstream replenishment, and the demand in February may be worse due to demand front-loading. On the resource side, the significance of independent and controllable domestic lithium resources is highlighted.
[The sales of new energy vehicles are off to a good start, and the prosperity of the downstream consumer market of lithium batteries is expected to be maintained after the holiday]
According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, from January 1 to 28 this year, the mainland new energy vehicle market retailed 596,000 units, an increase of 92% year-on-year and a decrease of 24% from the same period last month, and from January 1 to 28, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 567,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 76% year-on-year and a decrease of 38% from the same period last month. In terms of penetration, the retail sales of passenger cars in the same period were 1.708 million, an increase of 64% year-on-year, a decrease of 15% from the same period last month, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 34.9%.
[Soochow Securities: optimistic about investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector]
Soochow Securities said that it is optimistic about the investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector. The reasons are as follows: 1) the demand for lithium battery continues to grow, we expect the global demand for power + energy storage batteries to be 1250-1300GWh in 24 years, an increase of 25%, and will exceed 4000GWh in 30 years, with an average annual compound growth rate of 20%; 2) The industry pattern is stable, the cost curve is steep, and the domestic price has fallen to the bottom, approaching the cash cost line of second-tier manufacturers, and the room for decline is limited; 3) The leading product structure is rich, the excess profit in overseas markets is obvious, and the overall profitability level is better than market expectations.
[The funds borrowed the low-level layout of the battery ETF (561910), and the share expansion exceeded 8% during the year, leading the same kind!]
Benefiting from the stabilization of upstream resources, the lithium battery sector is ready to move and rush frequently. Recently, funds have taken advantage of the intensive layout of battery ETF (561910) to ambush in advance. As of February 2, the fund has received continuous net inflows, and its share has expanded by more than 8% during the year, leading similar targets!
Image source: Wind
[The sector is located in the historical 0% percentile, very low valuation area]
Wind data statistics, as of February 2, 2024, the latest valuation of the CS battery index (931719.CSI) is 15.83 times PE, which is at the 0% historical quantile, that is, it is cheaper than all times in the past 10 years, and the absolute value is at the bottom of history.
Data source: Wind, statistical range as of 2024.2.2, the last 10 years. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Indices operate for a relatively short period of time and do not reflect all stages of market development.
Risk Warning: Funds are risky and should be cautious when investing. The above views, opinions and ideas are based on the current situation and are subject to change in the future. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee or commitment of the performance of the fund. Investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract", "Prospectus", "Product Key Facts Statement" and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of fund products, and make independent decisions on fund investment and choose suitable fund products based on their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment objectives on the basis of understanding the product situation and listening to the suitability opinions of the sales agency. For the above views or information quoted from securities companies and other external institutions, we do not make any substantive guarantee or commitment to the authenticity, completeness and accuracy of such views and information, nor do they constitute investment recommendations. The performance of the CSI Battery Theme Index in the past five years is 36.08% (2019), 140.43% (2020), 52.43% (2021), -30.22% (2022), and -33.08% (2023) respectively. The CSI Battery Thematic Index is compiled and published by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. The Compiler of the Index will take all necessary measures to ensure the accuracy of the Index, but does not guarantee this and will not be liable to any person for any errors in the Index. Past performance of the Index is not indicative of future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of investment income or any investment advice.