Powell told 60 Minutes that the Fed is cautious about cutting rates too soon

Introduction: Powell once again stressed that a rate cut in March is less likely.

According to Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that Americans may need to wait until after March before the central bank considers lowering interest rates, as officials want more economic data to confirm whether inflation will fall to 2%.

In an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes" on Thursday and aired on Sunday night, Powell tried to explain to a wide audience the rationale for the central bank's eventual rate cut.

In an interview with CBS's Scott Paley, Powell said, according to a transcript provided by the network, "The danger of acting too early is that the work is not done, and the very good data that we have seen over the past six months may not accurately reflect the actual direction of inflation." ”

"We don't think that's the case," he noted. But it would be prudent to give some time to ensure that the data continues to confirm that inflation is coming down to 2% in a sustainable manner. ”

Powell said that the Fed's interest rate decision-making committee, the Federal Open Market Committee that sets interest rates, is unlikely to have "such a high level of confidence in the path of inflation" at its March 19-20 meeting, which is consistent with his speech at last Wednesday's press conference.

In the narration, Paley mentioned that Powell hinted that the first rate cut could happen around the middle of the year, although the transcript of the interview (including comments that were not broadcast on the show) did not explicitly indicate this.

As Powell's comments highlighted the potential for bond investors to overreact to the pricing of rapid rate cuts, the Asian market opened with a broad decline in Treasury prices across maturities.

Powell also said he doesn't think policymakers will make a "significant" change in their interest rate projections for 2024. Based on their median estimate in December, they expect the benchmark rate to reach 4.6% by the end of the year.

"Almost all of our participants believe that the stance of starting a gradual easing of tightening by cutting interest rates this year is appropriate," he said. Powell added: "So, of course, that's our fundamental point. We're just trying to pick the right timing in the overall context. ”

The interview provided Powell with an opportunity to get his message across to a wider audience in the days following the Fed's decision to keep interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. On Wednesday, policymakers cemented their decision to end aggressive action to raise interest rates, but at the same time showed that they are in no hurry to cut them.

Despite a sharp slowdown in inflation in recent months, Powell has repeatedly stressed that the central bank needs to wait for more data before lowering borrowing costs. He said last week that a rate cut was unlikely in the first quarter.

At the end of last year, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation fell to 2.6%, well below its peak of 7.1% in mid-2022. While this is still above the Fed's 2% target, the labor market remains strong. Data on Friday showed that the unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.7% in January, with employers adding another 353,000 jobs.

The timing of this year's policy shift presents a unique challenge for the Fed. The sharp rise in prices has caused discontent among the American public, dragged down President Joe Biden's approval ratings, and embroiled Powell and the Fed in election-year politics. Cutting interest rates this year will expose the Fed to Republican accusations that the central bank is trying to boost the Democrats by helping the economy before the election.

A number of Democratic lawmakers sent Powell a letter last week, including Senators Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren, urging him to lower interest rates. Former President Donald Trump told Fox Business Network on Friday that he would not reappoint Powell, even though he chose him as central bank chairman in 2017.

Powell underscored the point he has repeatedly emphasized in the past that Fed officials do not consider political or electoral factors when making policy decisions. "We've never done that. And we will never do that," he said.

"Honesty is priceless, and ultimately, that's all you have. He added: "We plan to maintain our integrity. ”

The Fed chair rarely comments on topics other than monetary policy. However, he opposed isolationism, arguing that the world was looking forward to American involvement. In addition, he noted that the U.S. economy benefits from immigration.

The battle on inflation

The interview is Powell's first appearance on "60 Minutes" since inflation began to rise in the second half of 2021. Fed officials attributed the price increase mainly to "transient factors," but the cost of services has also begun to rise, suggesting that inflation is spreading beyond supply chain issues.

Powell was nominated by Biden for re-election in November 2021. The Fed waited until March 2022 to start raising interest rates, after which it took aggressive measures. Over a 16-month period, the benchmark interest rate rose rapidly from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, leading to a sharp rise in the cost of borrowing for cars, homes and credit cards. At the beginning of 2023, three regional banks collapsed.

Powell said the central bank misread the reason for the price increase in 2021, blaming it on temporary supply bottlenecks.

"In hindsight, it might have been better to tighten policy earlier. I'm happy to say that," Powell said. "In the fourth quarter of '21, it became clear that inflation was not as ephemeral as I mentioned earlier, so we adjusted policy and started tightening. ”

The Fed's tightening campaign is the fastest rate of interest rate increases since former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker fought inflation in the early '80s. But unlike in the 80s of the 20th century, inflation has fallen rapidly and has done little damage to employment or growth.

Geopolitical risks

In addition to discussing the outlook for interest rates, Powell also commented on geopolitical risks, China's economy, federal debt, and risks to the commercial real estate sector, based on transcripts of the interview.

On geopolitical risks: "There is a war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and there are also potential problems in Asia. All of these represent risks. The impact on the United States is less at the moment. ”

About China: "Our economy, you know, our production system is not deeply related to China. So as long as what happens in China doesn't cause major disruption to the economic or financial system, the impact on the U.S. may be somewhat, but it shouldn't be too great. ”

On the U.S. fiscal trajectory: "It's not sustainable. I don't think that's controversial. We know we must get back to a sustainable fiscal path. I think now you're starting to hear about this from people in the electoral departments who are able to make that happen. It's time for us to get back into focus. ”

On commercial real estate: "We looked at the balance sheets of the larger banks and it seemed like a manageable issue. There are a number of smaller and regional banks that have concentrated risk in these areas. We are working with them. This is something that we have been focusing on for a long time, and we are working with them to ensure that they have the resources and plans to deal with the expected losses. ”

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