2024's fuel car: When BBA takes out its hole cards, Lexus and Porsche are the most injured?

In 2023, the report cards of the three BBAs in China will all exceed the 700,000 mark. Among them, BMW's sales exceeded 800,000 units, and Audi, which has always been "underestimated", increased by 13.5% year-on-year, far exceeding the other two. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, about 4.51 million high-end brand passenger cars were sold in China last year. Although there is a gap in the caliber of the data, it is not too much to say that BBA still occupies half of the domestic luxury market. So the question is, in 2024, can the position of the "Royal Three" still be so stable, and what changes will the entire traditional luxury car market face?

BBA has a product line of more than 400,000 yuan

When discussing joint venture brands before, there was a conclusion. That is, mainstream joint venture brands are using the "inventory" in their hands to break through. Settled here in a luxury brand, the script looks pretty much the same. To put it simply, it is to consolidate the market of more than 300,000 yuan, and seek incremental breakthroughs in more expensive segments. The reason for this conclusion is also very direct, because the sales of fuel vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan are still growing. According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, fuel vehicles in the two price ranges of 10-200,000 yuan and more than 300,000 yuan will be in a state of overall increase in 2023. In particular, the growth rate of fuel vehicles with a price of more than 350,000 yuan is significantly higher than that of other market segments.

You must know that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is close to one-third, and in terms of new car sales in the price range of 30-400,000 yuan, new energy vehicles are better than fuel vehicles. Of course, it's not that BBA's NEV performance can be ignored. Last year, BMW's domestic sales of pure electric vehicles reached about 100,000 units, and Mercedes-Benz also said that the delivery of pure electric models in China has more than doubled. However, judging from the performance of the terminal market, the profitability of BBA new energy vehicles, in most cases, is obviously not comparable to that of its fuel vehicles.

Even if a model based on a new platform can debut in the second half of 2024, the next battle for pure electric vehicles is destined to be in full swing for BBA until 2025. Perhaps models such as BMW i5 and Mercedes-Benz EQG can take advantage of the trend of the entire car series to set off different waves. However, in 2024, which has just begun, BBA will continue to penetrate from the plug-in hybrid field, which may be a more cost-effective choice. The potential has been cleared that there are BMW 5 Series plug-in hybrid, Mercedes-Benz E-class plug-in hybrid, etc., and Audi is expected to also "make up lessons" for PHEV technology routes in 2024.

The gradual completion of the plug-in hybrid product line has in turn set off the real highlight of BBA this year. Although the new generation of BMW 5 Series, as well as the gasoline version of the Mercedes-Benz E-Class have been unveiled. However, the midsize SUV market is still gaining momentum. BMW X3 and Audi Q5 are likely to usher in a new generation in 2024. Judging from the upgrade efforts of medium and large cars, it is possible to expect the replacement of their main mid-size SUVs. In particular, the replacement version of the Audi Q5 has even been circulated with the classic combination of switching back to the 8AT + Torsen differential. Finally, let's go back to the point of view from the beginning. BBA's main medium-sized SUV happens to be at the price of 40-500,000 yuan, which can be attacked and defended properly.

Lexus

and

Porsche

The most hurt?

Perhaps the biggest impact of BBA's actions on the domestic luxury market is to accelerate brand stratification. This refers not only to the impact on second-tier luxury brands, but also to ultra-luxury brands. Among them, the most representative ones are Lexus and Porsche. The former has long been in the vanguard of second-tier luxury brands in terms of volume, and has erected another brand moat as a fully imported brand. As for Porsche, it is one of the ultra-luxury brands that is closest to BBA in terms of product line type, price and volume. It can be said that Porsche and Lexus have been in a state of being in separate gear for a long time.

However, under the attack of BBA, it is difficult for second-tier luxury brands to survive in the market of more than 400,000 yuan. Among the volume models, perhaps the Lexus RX still has the strength to fight at this price point. But 2024 is a big year for BBA's SUV generation, and new products are not the most important thing. The current BMW X3, Audi Q5L and other products are invisible pressure for SUVs of second-tier luxury brands. Moreover, SUVs are just a microcosm, when BBA plays a price card in the low-end product line. For the second-tier luxury brands that are difficult to break through in a short period of time on the new energy front, there is no longer the so-called special one.

In short, sales don't lie. In addition to the fact that the vast majority of second-tier luxury brands have not been able to break the 200,000 mark in annual sales, Porsche's domestic deliveries have fallen by 15% year-on-year, and they have not even exceeded the 80,000 mark, which is even more unbelievable. The domestic luxury car market is indeed expanding, but in the face of BBA's continued efforts in high-end models, Chinese consumers may also be becoming more rational. The new generation of BMW 7 Series, the domestically produced BMW X5, and the Mercedes-Benz Maybach series. There are also Audi S series, RS series, and so on, which are "the same origin" in the performance part. In terms of products and prices, Porsche has been impacting the sales base mainly built by the Macan and Cayenne.

Of course, the Porsche 911 has a unique product charm, but if you rely only on the Porsche 911, it will not have the glory of the brand today. Perhaps, the rise of Porsche is precisely because it is close enough to the BBA. And Porsche's current predicament in the domestic market is also because it is too close to BBA? At present, Porsche's thinking seems to be to seek a breakthrough from new energy. However, more than four years have passed since the success of the Porsche Taycan. During this period of time, technologies such as performance, chassis, and 800V platform have been swept to new heights by Chinese new energy brands. The plug-in hybrid track is still a more cost-effective option, which is similar to the BBA situation discussed earlier. The plug-in hybrid model of the Porsche Cayenne has begun to take shape, and the new model no longer chooses to simply apply the 2.0T four-cylinder engine as a "perfunctory". The all-new all-electric Macan was also unveiled earlier this year. Will it be able to replicate the momentum of the Taycan, at least at a cheaper price point.

Written at the end: In the domestic luxury car market in 2024, there is a high probability that BBA will have the main voice in the painting style. It is compatible with the modular production of fuel, plug-in hybrid, and pure electric, as well as the large-scale effect of the world's first echelon. So that they in technological innovation and cost control, has obtained incomparable advantages. As a result, there are overlapping second-tier luxury brands on the track, as well as some ultra-luxury brands, which will inevitably be affected by the BBA siphon effect. Perhaps this year, among the choices of luxury fuel vehicles above 400,000 and within 1 million, the advantages of BBA will be more obvious.