Frightened

An excerpt from Powell's interview with CBS host Scott Pelley was broadcast.

Talking points

- Rates may not be cut until after March;

- Would like to see more economic data to ensure that inflation can sustainably meet its 2% target. The danger of acting too early is that the work is not yet fully accomplished;

- Data from the past six months is not a true indicator of where inflation is headed, and confidence in the path of inflation is unlikely to emerge before the 20 March meeting (

hinting at a possible rebound in inflation);

- No "significant" changes in interest rate forecasts (

hinting that the market is cutting interest rates too much for the whole year).

Analytical interpretation

From the point of view of time, the non-farm payrolls data had already been released when Powell spoke, and he also understood the market trend after the announcement of the January decision. It is clear that his speech is aimed at cooling the market.

After Powell's speech, the market movement was not drastic, but it seemed logical - the dollar rose, gold and Treasuries fell. There may be two reasons for the moderate market trend: first, this is the second time that Powell has made the same statement, and second, the dollar is blocked by a certain 100-day moving average, which makes it difficult for further breakthroughs in the short term, which also limits the volatility of other markets.

It should be noted that this is Powell's first speech during the Asian trading session, with further feedback expected in the evening.

China's stock market appears to have been a bird of shock, with the Shanghai Composite falling below 2,700 points again despite Friday's rally in the US stock market, even though the central bank set the central parity of the renminbi sharply higher (983 basis points stronger than market expectations) today.

The environment in February could be challenging for China:

1. The unexpected sharp RRR cut brought only temporary relief to the stock market;

2. Evergrande's liquidation had a negative impact on the confidence of investors and potential home buyers;

3. In terms of overseas news, the Federal Reserve hinted that it would not cut interest rates in March, and its impact may gradually spread to U.S. stocks, thereby causing instability in the external environment.

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}