There is a high probability that the "medium and special estimate" will fail

The special valuation is doomed to failure, just as the planned economy is bound to fail. If we continue to do so, we will inevitably trigger greater systemic risks and unpredictable storms.

Why did the special assessment fail? In fact, the current market has already explained everything. The so-called "facts speak louder than words", even if there are more remarks about the stinky feet of the special valuation, it is impossible to hide the fact that the A-share market collapsed.

What is the specific logic? In the pricing of the capital market, there is no such thing as a so-called valuation system with Chinese characteristics. Because the stock market is to look at the future, to look at expectations. Only industries that are in line with the process of social development and the change of human behavior and habits will be sought after by the market. On the other hand, industries that do not conform to the process of social development will be eliminated by the market.

Since the middle of the last century, the U.S. capital market has entered a long-term bull market. In this process, it is led by different industries, and the development of these industries happens to be in line with the development process of society. For example, Pretty 50, technology networks, smartphones, chips, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and so on. It is also the new highs of these stocks that have led the US stock market out of the bull market that has lasted for more than 40 years.

Some people compare these giants in China to Apple and Nvidia. Truth be told, this is a great insult to Apple and Nvidia. The reason is not only that China's giants are nothing more than giant babies who rely on monopoly food and are well protected by policies. If one day it is put into a perfectly competitive environment, not to mention making a profit, whether or not you can survive is two different things.

Others say that these companies have relatively low price-to-earnings ratios. This is true, but is the low price-earnings ratio a reason to buy? According to this idea, then the Hong Kong market should have risen a long time ago. You must know that the vast majority of the state-owned giants are dual-listed companies. However, the stock price of the mainland is basically at a premium of more than 50% to the stock price of the Hong Kong market. In other words, if these giants are really strange goods, then Hong Kong stocks should rise first. But the reality is that the Hong Kong market, including these behemoths, has been reduced to a world financial relic.

Capital is the smartest, and abandoning China to the United States is not because capital is blind. It must be our market itself that has a problem. What's the problem? It's a serious distortion of values. What is a serious distortion of values? That is, the regulators want the funds to go to the special valuation, but the funds are not willing to go. As a result, liquidity continues to dry up.

Of course, there are also some supporters of China Special Valuation, who pin their hopes on the reform of state-owned enterprises, including the market value management of central enterprises. I don't think it's easy to be optimistic about that.

As I have told you, the reform of state-owned enterprises began in 1992, so why has there been no progress in the reform every year? The fundamental reason for this is the agency system of state-owned enterprises. What does that mean? That is, the managers of state-owned enterprises are not related to state-owned enterprises by flesh and blood, which is completely different from the nature of private enterprises.

Let's take a simpler and more straightforward example. In 1978, the mainland began to divide the land into households. Before the reform, the land belonged to the state, and there was no direct relationship between the variety of grain and the cultivators, so the yield per mu at that time was only 200 or 300 catties. After the land was divided into households, although the land was still owned by the state, after the grain was handed over, all the rest went to the cultivators, and after that, the output per mu increased rapidly, and the mainland basically realized self-sufficiency in grain from then on.

In the history of the reform of state-owned enterprises, has there ever been a success? Yes, it is the MBO (management buyout) since the restructuring of Sitong Company began in 1999. When a large number of state-owned enterprises passed the MBO, the ownership of the enterprises changed from the state to the management, and it is precisely because of the change in ownership that the improvement of the operation of these enterprises is directly promoted. Of course, MBO is also controversial, because in the process of transformation, there is a large loss of state-owned assets. Regardless, the reform has boosted China's rapid economic growth and employment growth.

If in the future, the decision-making level insists on carrying out the reform of state-owned enterprises carried out by the so-called "medium and special valuation". I think it's very difficult to succeed in the high probability of that. The reason is that no amount of reform will turn ownership of SOEs into private ownership. In this case, no matter how many evaluation standards you have, it is difficult for the management to inspire innovation, entrepreneurship and enterprising. After all, the management is just a part-time worker, and it will not have the feelings of the family and the world like the top management, and will not take so much risk for the sake of a salary that is not too high.

Of course, I'm not saying that the special valuation can't go up, but it shouldn't go up at the expense of growth stocks. Instead, China Special Valuation should be used as the solid backbone of China's A-share market, and growth stocks should be used as the flesh and blood of the A-share market, which is a benign market. Only in this way can the A-share market be expected to get out of the long-term bull market, otherwise it will be bearish for a long time. This is like what a well-known person said, this is not a downward trend in the economic cycle, but the end of the era.

In tomorrow's article, I'm going to share with you a very scary but probably eventual reality. If this fact is finally realized, then the A-share market may still have a period of big adjustment, but after a rapid adjustment, it will usher in a long-term upward phase! Thank you, friends, for your attention.

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255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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#10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;; --weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, .1)}} 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157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

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