On February 2, 2024, the Russia-Ukraine war entered its 709th day.
First of all, as I predicted in yesterday's war report, the EU's €50 billion support package for Ukraine was adopted.
"We have reached an agreement, unified, that all 27 leaders agreed to an additional €50 billion support package for Ukraine within the EU budget, which runs until the end of 2027," EU Council President Charles announced yesterday at an extraordinary EU summit in Brussels. This locks in stable, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine. The EU takes leadership and responsibility in supporting Ukraine; We know what's at stake."
This 4-year (2024-2027) stabilization of 50 billion euros in economic assistance is very important for Ukraine, and the first 4.5 billion euros will arrive in March this year.
According to Reuters, before the summit, the main leaders of the European Union held a small meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and told him that if Hungary is still unwilling to meet the standards set by the European Union, the EU funds for Hungary will not be unfrozen, that is, Hungary will not be able to obtain the $6.3 billion frozen in 2022 from the pan-European budget. Moreover, the EU has refused to tie the issue to aid to Ukraine.
In the end, Orban, who was still aware of the current affairs, relented and gave up his veto power on the Ukraine aid bill.
In addition to the great news on international aid, Ukraine has also made two major gains on the battlefield in the past two days.
In the Crimean direction, the missile boat "Ivanovts" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was sunk by a marine unmanned boat of the special forces of the 13th group of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the night of January 31-February 1.
As can be seen from the video released by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the missile frigate was hit several times, and one of the unmanned boats rushed into the hull that had exploded, completing the final blow.
According to the analysis of Russian military blogger Milinfolive, the attack of the Ukrainian unmanned boat detonated the P-270 (X-35) anti-ship missile on the frigate, resulting in its complete destruction.
At that time, the missile boat "Ivanovts" was moored in the Crimean port of Donuslav.
A missile boat, also known as a missile boat, is a small fast warship equipped with anti-ship missiles. Ships of this type are smaller and less expensive to manufacture than other warships, costing $60 million to $70 million each.
Prior to this, the Ukrainian military announced that they had attacked the Belbek airbase near Sevastopol, located at the southwestern tip of the Crimean peninsula.
Preliminary information said that the Ukrainian army fired a total of 7 Storm Shadow/SCALP, of which 2 missiles hit the command post of the 38th Russian Fighter Aviation Regiment (Unit 80159 of the Belbek Military Unit), and another missile hit the communication center of the airport, and 10 Russian servicemen were killed in the attack, including the commander of the aviation squadron of the 38th Russian Fighter Aviation Regiment, Alexander Tatarenko.
In the Avdiivka direction, a logistics node of the Russian army was attacked by three Baba Yaga drones of the Ukrainian army, 11 supply vehicles were destroyed, 2 Turkish soldiers were killed and 4 were injured.
Overall, there have been no noteworthy changes in the front in the past 24 hours (the fighting is still fierce), and the head of the Ukrainian intelligence service, Budanov, said that "the Russian army is on the offensive, and it has been two and a half months since November last year, and you can see the results." At some point in early spring, the Russian army will run out of combat power, and then, like in any game, we will go into action".
I have previously said that the attack power of the Russian army will be basically exhausted in March, and the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army may not be until after May, which is basically consistent with Budanov's statement.
Yesterday's results announced by the General Staff of Ukraine.
Let's take a look at the other news.
NATO began to "shout and kill" on the borders of Russia.
The "Steadfast Defenders 2024" military exercise, which began on January 31 and ended on May 31, featured about 90,000 people, including 20,000 British troops, 15,000 Polish troops, 10,000 German troops and 5,000 Dutch troops.
Yes, you read that right, the main force of the military exercises is the European army, not the US military. As I said in yesterday's war report, Europe has resolved to strengthen its military, and this is a historic turning point that may begin to change the political landscape of the world.
However, what is more interesting is that Macron, who also declared two days ago that "Europe should take the lead in ensuring its own security and must not entrust its security to the big powers," seems to be still the master of just talking but not practicing, and France did not send troops in this exercise, but only arranged a 20-person observation mission.
The latest national poll by Quinnipec University shows that Biden has 50 percent approval among registered voters, surpassing Trump's 44 percent.
While many in the Republican Party have called for solidifying support for Mr. Trump, another candidate, Haley, has persevered in the fight to the death. She stressed that polls show she is better than Trump in the race against Biden — the university's latest poll shows that Hailey has 47 percent support, beating Biden's 42 percent.
This is consistent with my previous judgment: if the Republican Party fielded other candidates, Biden would almost certainly lose, but if it was still Trump, then Biden would win.
By the way, I don't think that if Trump comes to power, the United States will stop supporting Ukraine. On the contrary, he will force Putin to back down by supporting Ukraine, but at the same time, he will also force Zelensky to back down by stopping support, so that the two can finally reach some kind of compromise - this should be his so-called strategy of 24 hours to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Although it is impossible to predict what compromises Russia and Ukraine will make in Trump's plan. But there is no doubt that Ukraine will lose part of its territory forever – a crippled Ukraine will join the European Union and even NATO.
However, I do not think that Ukraine will accept his proposal. Zelensky has said many times that the freedom of all is the freedom of Ukraine, and Ukraine will not give up any territory and the people there. And now Europe is mentally ready to support Ukraine alone without the United States – this is enough, although it may mean longer and more sacrifices.
Therefore, elections in the United States will not affect the outcome of this war. Of course, I don't want the eventual winner to be Trump.
Lao Teh is a businessman, calculating, and always at the forefront of international issues, which is why I don't like him – there is nothing wrong with pursuing profit, but freedom is priceless and should not be traded.
Text/West Building Drinking Moon
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