Fosun Fortune knew it for a long time Nomura: Optimistic about the stock market, expecting the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in May

An overview of the highlights

1. Nomura: Mildly optimistic about the stock market, expecting the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in May

2. Amazon's fourth-quarter results and first-quarter guidance were better than expected

3. Meta's fourth-quarter results and first-quarter guidance beat expectations

4. Apple's revenue decline in Greater China was worse than expected

5. Xpeng Motors' January deliveries increased by 58% year-on-year

stock market

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 1.25% to 4,906.19, the Nasdaq rose 1.3% to 15,361.64 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.97% to 38,519.84.

2. The tech giants all rebounded, with Apple up 1.33%, Microsoft up 1.56%, Amazon up 2.63%, Meta up 1.19%, Google-A up 0.76%, Tesla up 0.84%, and Nvidia up 2.44%.

3. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.38%. Alibaba rose 0.4%, Baidu fell 0.31%, Pinduoduo fell 0.22%, JD.com fell 1.46%, NetEase rose 3.34%, NIO rose 1.60%, Li Auto rose 5.31%, and Xpeng Motors rose 1.68%.

Macroeconomic

1. Nomura expects a soft landing in the U.S. to dominate the market and provide support to equities in the coming months, and remains slightly bullish on the equity market. Overall, Nomura is mildly optimistic about the stock market, pointing out that there are still labor market and core CPI data due before the Fed meeting in March, and believes that the performance and development outlook of US technology companies will continue to influence market trends, while paying attention to whether investment themes such as the cyclical recovery of chips and artificial intelligence will continue to support stock prices. Nomura expects the Fed to make a decision in response to changes in the overall data, and is currently forecasting its first rate cut in May, with a total of 100 basis points for the full year.

Company & Industry

1. Amazon's fiscal fourth quarter net sales were $169.96 billion versus analysts' expectations of $166.21 billion, fiscal fourth-quarter operating profit was $13.21 billion versus analysts' expectations of $10.49 billion, fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share were $1.00 versus analysts' expectations of $0.78, fiscal first-quarter net sales were expected to be $138 billion to $143.5 billion versus analysts' expectations of $142.01 billion, and fiscal first-quarter operating profit was expected to be $8 billion to $12 billion versus analysts' expectations of $9.12 billion.

2. Meta's fourth-quarter revenue was $40.11 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $39.01 billion. Fourth-quarter EPS came in at $5.33, beating analysts' expectations of $4.91. Facebook had 3.07 billion monthly active users in the fiscal fourth quarter versus analysts' expectations of 3.06 billion, Facebook had 2.11 billion daily active users versus analysts' expectations of 2.07 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, revenue was expected to be $34.5 billion to $37 billion in the fiscal first quarter versus analysts' expectations of $33.64 billion, and Meta also paid its first dividend in the company's history, paying a cash dividend of $0.50 per share. The company announced an increase of $50 billion in share buybacks.

3. Apple released its first quarter report for fiscal year 2024 (that is, the fourth quarter of 2023 natural year), which showed that Apple's quarterly revenue was $119.58 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $117.97 billion, and revenue returned to year-on-year growth, with iPhone revenue of $69.7 billion, higher than the expected $68.55 billion. However, Greater China revenue was US$20.82 billion, a year-on-year decline of more than the expected US$23.5 billion. Q1 earnings per share were $2.18 versus analysts' expectations of $2.11.

4. Google announces the signing of a new electricity purchase agreement. Under the agreement, more than 700 megawatts of clean energy capacity will be added to the European grid. Google says the goal is to use carbon-free energy around the clock by 2030, and to do that requires clean energy solutions for every grid it operates.

5. Infineon and Honda Automotive sign a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a strategic partnership. Honda has selected Infineon as its semiconductor partner, and the two companies have also agreed to continue discussions on supply stability. Infineon will provide technical support to Honda in areas such as advanced driver assistance systems.

6. Semiconductor company Wolfspeed reported a financial non-GAAP net loss of $0.55 per share in the second quarter, up from a loss of $0.29 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company expects a third-quarter non-GAAP net loss of $0.57 to $0.69 on revenue of $185 million to $215 million.

7. Li Auto announced that it delivered 31,165 new vehicles in January 2024, a year-on-year increase of 105.8%. Since delivery, Li Auto has delivered a total of 664,529 vehicles. As of January 31, 2024, Li Auto has 474 retail centers across the country, covering 142 cities.

8. Xpeng Motors announced that in January 2024, Xpeng Motors delivered a total of 8,250 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 58%. At present, Xpeng X9 has started large-scale delivery in more than 100 cities across the country, with a total of 2,478 units delivered, of which nearly 70% of the Max version has been purchased.

This week's highlights at a glance

· There was no data to focus on on Monday

· Tuesday focuses on:

1. JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in December were 9.026 million, compared with 8.79 million in the previous value and 8.75 million in the forecast

2. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in January was 114.8, the previous value was 110.7, and the forecast value was 115

3. The final value of the consumer confidence index in the euro area in January was -16.1, which was consistent with the previous value and forecast

· Wednesday will focus on:

1. The ADP employment in the United States changed by 107,000 in January, the previous value was 164,000, and the forecast value was 145,000

2. The Chicago PMI in January was 46, the previous value was 46.9, and the forecast value was 48

3. Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.8% in January, compared to 5.9% in the previous and forecast values

4. The seasonally adjusted change in the number of unemployed in Germany in January was -2,000, compared with 5,000 in the previous and 11,000 in the forecast

· Thursday highlights:

1. The upper limit of the US federal funds rate target on January 31 was 5.5%, which was consistent with the previous value and forecast

2. The lower limit of the US federal funds rate target on January 31 was 5.25%, which was consistent with the previous value and the forecast value

3. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in January was 50.8, the previous value was 50.8, and the forecast value was 50.6

4. The final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in January was 50.7, and the previous value and forecast value were both 50.3

5. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States in January was 49.1, the previous value was 47.4, and the forecast value was 47

6. The unemployment rate in the eurozone was 6.4% in December, unchanged from the previous value and forecast

7. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended January 27 was 224,000, compared with 214,000 in the previous and 212,000 in forecasts

8. The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended January 20 was 1.898 million, compared with 1.833 million in the previous and 1.84 million in forecast

· Friday highlights:

1. U.S. non-farm payrolls in January after seasonally adjusted

2. U.S. average hourly earnings annualized rate for January

3. U.S. labor force participation rate in January

4. U.S. unemployment rate in January

Source：财经报社、英为财经、汇通网、格隆汇、TradingView

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