What do the leading institutions think about the bull market outlook in 2024?

This is the first of the vernacular blockchain

2018

Original 

Author | Fire

出品｜白话区块链（ID：hellobtc）

2024 is a promising year for the crypto market, with all eyes on those noteworthy new tracks in the crypto space, including leading institutions. At the beginning of the year, various institutions have released their own research reports, looking forward to 2024 from a professional and detailed perspective, which is very valuable for reference.

Vernacular Blockchain consulted the research reports of 23 leading institutions (including Messari, a16z, Coinbase, MT Capital, etc.), trying to summarize and find "institutional consensus" to improve certainty, which is summarized as follows:

 01 

The top 10 tracks that are generally optimistic

1) Bitcoin ecological revival

After the launch of Ordinals (a Bitcoin-based digital content encoding method) in December 2022, it has led to a boom in the inscription and Bitcoin ecosystem. In 2023, the Bitcoin ecosystem has grown strongly, with Bitcoin's dominance (Bitcoin's share of cryptocurrency market capitalization) rising from 38% in January to around 50% in December, making it one of the most noteworthy ecosystems in 2024.

The predictions of institutions are also basically optimistic about the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem this year:

Bitwise, a major US crypto index fund management company, predicts that Bitcoin will exceed $80,000 in 2024.

Coinbase believes that the main focus of institutional investment will continue to be on Bitcoin for at least the first half of 2024, as the passage of ETFs will give traditional investors a strong demand to enter this market.

Other forecasts are also bullish, mainly due to the following reasons:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the next big event, the Bitcoin halving event in April, is just around the corner, and supply and demand are expected to change significantly;

The Bitcoin ecosystem will see the development of infrastructure upgrades, programmability, and the development of base protocols such as Ordinals, as well as Layer 2 and other extensible layers such as Stacks and Rootstock.

2) The development of Ethereum L2

In addition to the Bitcoin ecosystem, Ethereum, as the pioneer of smart contracts, and the development of Ethereum Layer 2 are also the highlights of the 2024 predictions of various institutions, especially with the release of Vitalik's Ethereum 2024 roadmap and the approach of the Cancun upgrade, ARB, OP and other Ethereum Layer2 project tokens have skyrocketed recently.

The competition in the public chain ecology has always been fierce, and in 2023, the public chain ecology such as Solana and Avalanche will develop rapidly, and the momentum will even overshadow Ethereum. However, Ethereum, as a leader, has also begun to exert force, and most of the predictions of various institutions are based on the fact that with the completion of the Cancun upgrade, gas fees will further drop significantly, which can drive the explosion of the Ethereum Layer2 ecosystem in 2024. Bitwise believes that a major upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain will result in an average transaction cost of less than $0.01, which could lay the groundwork for more mainstream uses.

If the upgrade is successfully achieved, some leading projects of Ethereum Layer 2 (such as Optimism, Arbitrum, Base, etc.) can compete with other Layer 1 public chains in terms of performance.

In addition, according to Vitalik's vision, in the long run, zero-knowledge proofs are the future of Ethereum Layer 2, and the two Layer 2 projects zkSync and StarkWare are also optimistic.

3) The development of the Solana ecosystem

In the past 2023, the Solana public chain ecosystem has performed well, both in terms of technology precipitation and community, which has laid a solid foundation for the long-term development of the Solana ecosystem, and the outbreak of the Solana ecosystem has also attracted a large number of users and funds.

Various institutions predict that in 2024, more projects will choose or migrate to the Solana public chain, and the Solana ecosystem will continue to explode. Because, whether it is TPS, gas fees, or community users, Solana is more resistant.

In 2024, the expectations of various market institutions for Solana will focus on the following aspects:

Solana's technical upgrades, such as the development of light clients through Tinydancer, allow validators to complete verification work at a lower cost, achieving a higher degree of decentralization;

Solana's performance improvements, including increased throughput and performance, improved user experience, and deployment of new token standards, have enhanced its robustness.

The release of new products, the increase in on-chain liquidity, and the expansion of developer tools have contributed to the prosperity of the Solana DePIN ecosystem.

4、DePIN（Decentralized Public Internet Network）

DePIN, or Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, is a new approach to building and maintaining infrastructure in the real world, with the goal of building decentralized networks in industries such as telecommunications, energy, mobile communications, and storage. In 2023, there are more than 650 DePINs, with a market capitalization of over $20 billion and an annual revenue of over $150 million.

DePin development in 2023 at a glance

In 2024, cryptocurrency data platform CoinMarketCap has listed DePIN as a separate classification, reflecting the crypto market's high focus on this space.

DePIN covers a wide range of fields, including server networks, wireless networks, sensing networks and energy networks, and it is currently predicted that the DePin track has huge growth potential. For example, according to crypto research firm Messari, the overall industry size of DePIN is currently about $2.2 trillion and is expected to grow to $3.5 trillion by 2028. Messari also pays special attention to the following segments of DePIN sub-tracks: cloud storage market, decentralized databases, decentralized wireless networks, and integration with AI.

However, while predicting, various institutions also believe that the maturity of DePIN also requires long-term investment and operation development of the market, institutions and developers, so that it can gradually penetrate into people's lives and applications, and from complementary to parallel to replacement with existing infrastructure.

5) The combination of AI and blockchain

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) in 2023 is also driving the development of AI+ web3 services. At the beginning of January 2024, the market capitalization of AI-related tokens reached $7.04 billion. Given the growing popularity of AI, most of the forecasts favor AI as a core feature to enhance the attractiveness of blockchain-based crypto platforms.

At present, the tracks that various institutions are more optimistic about are:

Direct application of AI in crypto: the combination of trading bots, automated payment and arbitrage bots with blockchain. Scenarios include AI Agent using cryptographic infrastructure for payment, smart contract security scheduling AI model, Token reward, individual fine-tuning model, and collection of valuable data. Messari believes that advances in AI will increase the demand for cryptocurrency solutions.

Innovative applications of AI and cryptography: Here AI is being used to improve the user experience and efficiency of Web3, and more blockchain technology is being used as a guardrail and transparency layer for AI. For example, we're seeing research and new use cases for zero-knowledge and machine learning (ZKML), games that allow users to train AI agents with ERC 6551, and so on.

Bankless analyst Jack Inabinet believes that crypto + AI could be an explosive combination. While the early campaigns were mostly about using the hype to spread worthless projects, the prospects are still huge.

Crypto firm DWF believes that leading social cognition in centralized AI and its limitations, and that decentralized AI has great potential to develop in 2024 and lead the future of AI through Web3.

6) The explosion of GameFi and the development of blockchain games

The chain games in 2021 and 2022 are full of flowers, from "Play to Earn" to "X to Earn", and smash hits such as Axie and Stepn have emerged, but in comparison, the chain games in 2023 are relatively bleak. However, with the improvement of infrastructure, various institutions are still optimistic about the future development of chain games.

After all, from the perspective of the traditional Web2 market, games are a very potential market, and they have almost become a part of many people's lives. And most traditional game users don't have much knowledge about the GameFi (Gaming) space. From a TVL perspective, as of this writing (February 1, 2024), the TVL of the GameFi sector in the chart below is only $19.6 billion.

Overview of TVL of each track, source: coingecko.com

From the perspective of the development space of GameFi, it is expected that GameFi will have a larger narrative in 2024-2025 and will receive more attention.

For example, Azuki researcher Wale Swoosh believes that gaming will be one of the megatrends that will define 2024. Gaming has always been and will always be a great Trojan horse when it comes to cryptocurrency applications, with a strong belief that the Web3 gaming trend seen at the end of 2023 will not only continue next year, but will become more pronounced.

Kelvin Koh, co-founder and CIO of Spartan Capital, believes that there will be a batch of AAA Web3 games launched in 2024 and believes that these games will bring millions of new Web3 users.

In general, at present, institutions are optimistic about GameFi mainly in two points:

First, in 2024, there will be an increasing number of blockchains focused on gaming. In addition to some traditional old public chains, new public chains, such as Oasys and Sui, have also joined them;

Second, the entry of large traditional game companies. For example, Oasys has attracted many well-known publishers to its ecosystem, such as Ubisoft Entertainment (Ubisoft game software), Square Enix (a Japanese game software production and development company and publisher), Activision Blizzard (Activision Blizzard), Epic Games, and many more.

7) The development of modular and zero-knowledge proof (Snark) technologies

In 2023, both modular blockchains and zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) have been fully developed, such as Celestia, zkEVM, etc. And it's clear that these two narratives are starting to converge, with projects in the ZK space starting to be "modular" with specific verticals (e.g., coprocessors, privacy layers, proof marketplaces, and zkDevOps).

Spartan Managing Director Leeor Groen believes that privacy and security will be key drivers in Web3, and as the technology evolves, it will see users begin to realize the value of zero-knowledge proofs and modular blockchains, and users don't even know that they rely on these zero-knowledge proofs and modular blockchains on the backend of everything from digital identities to gaming.

A16z believes that the rise of the modular technology stack has brought the greatest advantage of the open-source, modular technology stack, and that the next wave of smart contract protocols is expected to be more robust and less susceptible to expensive hacks as tools inspired by formal methods are widely adopted by developers and security experts. The mainstreaming of SNARKs technology will become a trend.

For the 2024 outlook, institutions and researchers also expect this trend to continue, with zero-knowledge proofs becoming the interface between the different components of the modular blockchain stack. This provides developers with more flexibility to build DApps while lowering the barrier to entry for the blockchain stack, and for consumers, ZKP may be seen as a way to protect identity and privacy, for example in the form of ZK-based decentralized identity.

It is also important to mention that SNARKs will be a key project in 2024 because they can provide proofs for computations that generate specific outputs, making proofs much faster than they can perform corresponding computations.

8) The trend of mobile and decentralization may become mainstream channels, and the user experience will be improved.

Regardless of the crypto ecosystem, the ultimate goal for long-term growth is to attract new users and encourage existing users to become more active participants. With the recovery of the market, the improvement of infrastructure, and the layout of various institutions, it is generally believed that there will be a large influx of crypto users in 2024.

Like Eddy Lazzarin, CTO of a16z, believes that although the user experience in the crypto space has been criticized, developers are actively testing and deploying new tools to reset the crypto front-end user experience, such as multi-party computation, simplifying the passing of passwords to login apps and websites, embedded wallets, and more. These innovations will enable users to experience a better and more secure environment when using encrypted applications.

However, on the whole, the reasons for the optimism of various institutions mainly lie in the following two points:

On the one hand, a big theme that has emerged in recent bear market cycles has been the focus on how to make crypto more user-friendly and easy to use. The additional responsibility of managing cryptocurrencies and all related stuff (wallets, private keys, gas fees, etc.) isn't for everyone, making it difficult for the industry to mature unless it can overcome some key challenges related to user experience. For example, the development of account abstraction to facilitate the development of wallet recovery mechanisms and better create fault protection against simple human errors, such as losing private keys.

On the other hand, the Ethereum Cancun upgrade could reduce rollup transaction fees by a factor of 2-10, and it is thought that more Dapps may pursue a "no gas transaction" path, effectively allowing users to focus solely on advanced interactions.

9) Regulatory Policies

Over the past year, the entire crypto industry has faced increased regulation, and as the crypto industry expands, regulatory compliance is an inevitable issue.

Many are predicting that in the new year, with the election of leaders, other regulatory policies will continue to be introduced.

Ji Kim, General Counsel and Global Policy Leader of the Digital Asset Crypto Innovation Council (CCI), believes that one of the bigger stories in 2024 will be that jurisdictions will continue to compete for top status, competing to become key hubs for digital assets and the future financial system.

Gillian Lynch, head of EU at Gemini, believes that while opinions on cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are still divided, the vast majority would agree that the crypto industry needs a regulatory framework with customer protection at its core, while balancing the need for a clear and consistent rulebook that ultimately helps foster innovation.

Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty expects the SEC's lawsuit against the Ripple coin to end in 2024, but its regulatory strategy is likely to continue to target other high-profile individuals. The U.S. Congress will work to reach an overarching agreement on cryptocurrency regulation, but the best approach remains to be determined.

 02 

A track with less voice

The more controversial tracks are RWA and NFT, with some predicting bullish and some bearish, and there are relatively few mentions.

1）NFT

Compared to the popular inscriptions, NFTs have been in the doldrums in 2023. With the exception of a few projects, the top blue-chip projects have all fallen into the dilemma of rebounding rather than reversing. In the case of BAYC, the average price at the beginning of the year reached 71 ETH, but by the end of the year the floor price had fallen to less than 30 ETH.

The landscape of the NFT market has also changed dramatically, with Blur competing fiercely with Opensea at the beginning of 2023 to almost monopolizing the market share by the end of the year, while Opensea, which once dominated the market, accounted for only 20% of the market in terms of weekly trading volume in December 2023. Despite product and community feedback from Opensea in an attempt to withstand the onslaught of Blur, little has been achieved. With the rise of Blur, the zero royalty debate has faded away, and the discussion about whether creators should get royalties has faded.

Comparison of market share of NFT trading platforms in 2023

Some institutions believe that consumer brands will use NFT to give birth to a new model of user participation, and NFT can continue to promote the liquidity of the collectibles and art market, especially if GameFi develops, NFT as an important basic accessory can also follow the development. For example, A16z indicates that more and more well-known brands have begun to launch digital assets to mainstream consumers in the form of NFTs, and in 2024, the conditions for NFTs to become a universal digital brand asset have been met.

Some institutions also believe that it is difficult for NFT trading volume to replicate the boom in 2021, because most NFT projects have more hype and lack real cumulative value, and NFT creators need to adjust their strategies to enhance their competitiveness.

(A) THE 2)

Compared with NFTs, there will be more institutions that are optimistic about RWA:

The Block 研究员

It is believed that Bitcoin spot ETFs have sparked a surge in institutional interest, and the bridge between DeFi and TradFi continues to widen.

In turn, tokenized real-world assets are more accessible as more variety of traditional financial elements enter the on-chain environment

More adoption and therefore bullish RWA.

Bitwise 

Think RWA will set off

At the behest of Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase will tokenize the fund and put it on the chain.

Delphi Digital 

Think RWA is

 One of the most successful areas of cryptocurrency in 2023, 2024 will continue to grow.

In summary, their reasons are as follows:

It is conducive to building a bridge of communication between traditional institutions and the crypto world. RWA tokenizes off-chain assets and converts them into blockchain digital assets, which are easy to understand. Stablecoins are a common RWA application because they are based on a tokenized representation of fiat currencies.

Several major institutions have increased their investment in RWA, and crypto projects like Chainlink are partnering with the world's largest traditional financial institutions to bring and tokenize large amounts of RWA.

RWA is building a financial ecosystem where digital tokens represent tangible assets that are more accessible and scalable to public users, not just privileged or institutional investors. RWA has a wide range and can also be divided into various classifications such as private credit, treasury bonds, real estate, commodities, stablecoins, insurance, etc., and has great application potential.

But the less optimistic institutions believe that:

As interest rates peaked, on-chain Treasury yields emerged. Cryptocurrencies are pursuing the same or even more returns pursued by traditional financial investors, but everyone's needs need to be further explored, and this still needs a long development process, but it is difficult to have a big development in 2024.

3)SocialFi

SocialFi is the convergence of social media and DeFi, and from a macro perspective, Web2 has a trend of shifting from social to finance, and Web3 from finance to social.

Looking back at social media in Web2, it took Twitter 5 years to reach 100 million users, and Facebook took 8 years to reach 1 billion, and SocialFi is still a relatively new concept.

The SocialFi track has attracted the attention of investors in the second half of 2021, and many projects such as Whale, Chiliz, Rally, BBS network, Showme, and Mirror.xyz have become popular, and even some platforms have a grand situation where it is difficult to find a registration invitation code. However, as the market as a whole turned bearish, SocialFi also died down.

The reason for the rise in popularity again is that in August 2023, friend.tech pioneered a new form of social experience on Base Layer 2, where users can buy and sell other people's "shares" on X (Twitter). It peaked at 30,000 ETH TVL in October and inspired several copycat projects. Friend.tech pioneered a new model of token economics for the SocialFi space by financializing Twitter's profile.

However, among these institutional predictions, there is less mention of SocialFi's development outlook in 2024, and occasionally it is also mentioned because with the continuous spread of the concept of decentralization, more decentralized social media networks and tools will be launched, but we can expect to see if it can really get out of the circle.

 03 

summary

Overall, in 2023, the entire crypto industry has gone through the trough and despair of a bear market and has begun to set off a small bull market. The development of the public chain ecology led by Bitcoin has entered a new stage, and new narratives and new tracks have taken turns to appear on the stage, laying the foundation for the next big bull market.

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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}} @media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}