Author / Baked buns under the stars
Edit/Spinach's Starry Sky
Typesetting/Leeks under the stars
At the beginning of the new year, all walks of life are striving for the top, hoping to lay a good foundation for the whole year with a "good start". However, if we turn our attention to the capital market, we find that A-shares have ushered in a black start, among which photovoltaics, which is favored by tens of thousands of investors, has not been spared.
Overcapacity has not been alleviated, the price war is still continuing, and it is probably more appropriate to describe the photovoltaic in the capital market with endless ups and downs, such as JA Solar Technology (002459), Cybrid Technology (603212), King Kong Photovoltaic (300093) and many other players, have ushered in a wave of falling limits.
Photovoltaic industry sector
As an important part of the photovoltaic industry chain, photovoltaic modules have also been very lively in the past two years, and a number of relevant players have recently released performance forecasts, what kind of report cards can they post, and can photovoltaic modules return to the top in the future?
First, the price war is about to break out
If we disassemble the photovoltaic industry chain, you will find that photovoltaic modules are the smallest photovoltaic cell combination devices that can provide DC output alone, located in the middle of the entire photovoltaic industry chain, at the end of the manufacturing link, and directly facing the terminal application market. From the perspective of business model, the customers of PV modules mainly include end owners, EPCs, distributors and installers.
Photovoltaic industry chain
The two most obvious characteristics of the module industry are asset-light and low ROE, with the current assets of PV module companies accounting for about 50%-60%, which is lower than that of inverters and adhesive films. In addition, compared with silicon materials, adhesive films, photovoltaic glass and other links, the ROE of photovoltaic module players is relatively low.
Last year, the market size of PV was still growing, with new PV installations reaching 217GW, a direct year-on-year increase of 148%, which can be said to be the sum of the installed capacity in the previous four years. However, in stark contrast, the price of products in different parts of the photovoltaic industry chain has ushered in a decline.
For example, PERC photovoltaic modules, in the second half of last year, fell from 1.6 yuan/W to 0.95 yuan/W, and many players have entered a state of loss. At the beginning of this year, PowerChina opened bids for 42GW of module frames, and according to the author's statistics, the average price of large players on the PERC track was 0.93 yuan/W, and the price of small and medium-sized players was about 0.94 yuan/W.
It can be said that the track of photovoltaic modules does not have the most volume, only more volume, as if only the price war can make small and medium-sized players passively clear.
Second, the performance is dismal and the boss is replaced
At present, among the world's top 20 manufacturers, except Hanwha, are all domestic manufacturers, and the photovoltaic industry looks at China, and there is nothing wrong with this sentence at all.
The production capacity of photovoltaic modules
From the perspective of industry concentration, leading manufacturers have developed rapidly in recent years, and the concentration of the photovoltaic module industry has shown an obvious upward trend, and the head effect has become more and more obvious. Players like LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have done just that.
Profitability per watt of module business
However, judging from last year's statistics, JinkoSolar (688223) sold more than 75GW of modules, with a market share of 14.5%-15%, jumping from the second in the world to the first in the world. You must know that from 2020 to 2022, the world's largest module leader is still LONGi Green Energy (601012).
Especially in recent years, during the transformation of N-type high-efficiency cell technology, JinkoSolar seized the first-mover advantage and chose TOPCon technology for mass production, so it also enjoyed its own dividends, and JinkoSolar's market share in the TOPCon field has been close to 40%.
According to estimates by professional institutions, TOPCon may account for more than 80% of N-type battery shipments in 2024, which can be said to be one of the few structural opportunities on the bleak track.
Those who seize the opportunity and work the road of transformation will inevitably have chicken feathers. For example, Yingli Co., Ltd. (300956), as a laptop foundry, decided to enter the photovoltaic industry in 2022 (set up Feimi New Energy), but chased "light" for more than a year and made a large investment, but according to public information, the module production line has been suspended.
A few days ago, the company also released a 2023 performance forecast, with a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 28 million yuan to 40 million yuan, a year-on-year loss that continued to expand, and the core reason was that the investment in photovoltaic module production lines did not meet expectations due to drastic market changes.
3. Look to the future and find a way out
When an avalanche comes, no snowflake is innocent. For example, Trina Solar (688599) is expected to increase its net profit by 43.27% to 58.36% year-on-year last year, in addition to Risen Energy (300118) and GCL Integration (002506).
The main reason behind the growth of performance is the contribution of N-type modules, such as Trina Solar's TOPCon module products, which have significantly increased the sales share, but it should be noted that the company's net profit in the fourth quarter of last year has fallen by at least 50% quarter-on-quarter, and the power of the price war has begun to appear.
However, there are still many players who have not disclosed their performance, and it is believed that the decline in performance will become a common phenomenon in the industry.
Looking to the future, in addition to the N-type cell + integrated layout, there are also structural opportunities, as well as large-size modules, which have significant advantages in efficiency improvement and can significantly reduce costs from all aspects, which plays a key role in the context of price wars.
When photovoltaic modules usher in the light, in the end, it is necessary to start from the supply side, so that supply and demand can return to a reasonable range, which is the fundamental method.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.