In 2024, many leading public and private quantitative funds will fall by more than 10%, and some small and medium-sized private equity funds will even fall by more than 20%.
In the first two years, subjective funds were cleared, mainly due to the three-year decline of the large-market blue chips represented by the CSI 300 and the continuous decline of many subjective funds' heavy positions in consumer liquor, medicine and medical care, new energy, and semiconductors.
Why do I say this, because in 2023, the Wind micro-cap index will rise by 49.8%, and almost no quantitative funds have achieved such a high increase, that is, regardless of public or private quantification, as long as you get part of the beta return of the micro-cap stock index, you can achieve positive returns.
Many quantitative funds advertise that they are targeting the CSI 500 Index, but they are suspected of selling dog meat on the head of a sheep, because on January 23, when the CSI 500 Index rebounded sharply, some quantitative funds were still falling on that day, and the micro-cap stock index was also falling on this day, indicating that these quantitative funds are not directly benchmarked against the CSI 500 Index, but against the underlying micro-cap stock index.
At the beginning of 2024, the micro-cap stock index formed a double-top pattern, turning downward, and the current decline has exceeded 10%, and many quantitative funds have also fallen sharply.
The core of quantitative funds is to earn excess returns, but in recent years, the micro-cap stock index has continued to rise, whether the quantitative fund really relies on its own strategy to earn excess returns, or bet on the beta income earned by the micro-cap stock index, when the micro-cap index continues to fall, it will be exposed.
There is no difference between a quantitative fund betting on a micro-cap stock index and Zhang Kun's bet on liquor and Gülen's bet on medicine and healthcare.
Therefore, in this wave of decline in the micro-cap stock index, all quantitative funds that simply bet on the micro-cap stock index and only ate the beta returns of the micro-cap stock index in the past few years must choose the opportunity to come out, and the last remaining in the market must be those quantitative fund companies and managers who really rely on continuous iteration of quantitative strategies to make excess returns.
When making investments, I often encounter the dilemma of dying in the heat of the day.
A type of product is popular, more and more people pay attention, and a large amount of money is pouring in, which is often the peak of product income.
subjective funds managed by star fund managers from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021;
The once flourishing snowball products have caused many investors to lose a lot!
Quantitative private equity has gone through several ups and downs, and it is still standing, which is really rare. But now quantitative funds are also experiencing their own internal and external troubles.
There is the resentment of retail investors, the pressure of supervision, and the constraints of various policies.
Therefore, when investing, don't just bet on one strategy or one market, bonds, commodities, and overseas must learn to pay attention to allocation. Taking the route of asset allocation is the way to long-term investment!
What do you think about quantitative funds?