Inscription: In today's turbulent world, China is committed to always standing with peace: to become the mainstay of maintaining world peace.
Observing the road that Russia has traveled before and after the "reconquest" of Crimea, while admiring the spirit of the "fighting nation", what enlightenment can be given to us by analyzing the possible thinking, actions, gains and losses of the Russian elite during this time period?
In addition to fighting cautiously, it is still prudent to fight!
Prudence is by no means cowardice, but waiting for the opportunity to move, and it requires concentration!
In 2014, Ukraine's pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych stepped down, triggering internal unrest in Ukraine. The "Russian imperialists" represented by Strelkov - the ultra-conservative forces in Russia led the Kremlin by the nose and "recovered" Crimea.
What is widely seen is that Russia got Crimea - took control of the Black Sea, but did not see what it lost: Russia, as a "quasi-developed country", the path forward, was interrupted!
Russia has since embarked on the path of confrontation and is becoming more and more intense!
In the Crimea, the Russian new Karchesk was destroyed
1. Russia: the path of "quasi-developed countries".
1. History cannot be repeated
In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia entered the Yeltsin era. It is conceivable that the Russian elite at that time was thinking about how to get out of the predicament at that time and rebuild the glory of the past?
I believe that they will look into history to find a solution to the problem, and that should be conceivable. To this day, the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin said: "Europe is the mother of Russia." "You can see it.
Historically, the beginning of Tsarist Russia truly becoming the "gendarme of Europe" marked that Tsarist Russia, under the leadership of Peter the Great, learned from Europe the achievements of the Renaissance, carried out a series of reforms, joined forces with European countries, and finally defeated the Kingdom of Sweden, a Nordic power;
Catherine the Great
Tsarist Russia was the hallmark of its true hegemon in Europe: Tsar Catherine, who regarded the Renaissance European thinker Voltaire as her fan, led Tsarist Russia to defeat the Ottoman Turkish Empire and gain control of Crimea and the Black Sea. Catherine quotes: Give me another 200 years, and the whole of Europe will be prostrate at my feet.
We believe that the Russian elite of the Yeltsin era wanted to learn from Europe and then integrate again, just like Peter I and Catherine II in history, with sincerity and longing.
But even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's territory was still too large.
Yeltsin's study of the separation of powers in the West directly led to the weakening of centralized power in Russia, the rise of local separatist forces, and the outbreak of the Chechen War. The fact that the Chechen separatist forces were carrying out terrorist attacks everywhere and that caused the explosions in Russia at that time, and the economic oligarchs who were making waves under extreme privatization led to the withering of people's livelihoods: history cannot be repeated, and this is the internal reason for Yeltsin's inevitable defeat in Russia.
In the terrorist attack in Russia, Chechen separatist forces kidnapped the teachers and students of an entire middle school, causing heavy casualties
2. Before the Crimean crisis: Russia was already a "quasi-developed country";
In 1999, Putin took over the helm of Russia, re-establishing centralization and cracking down on economic oligarchy while maintaining a relatively healthy relationship with Europe.
In terms of security, Russia also hopes to join NATO, based on the core theme of world security at that time, because the United States is in a state of counter-terrorism after the 911 incident, and the terrorist attack with Russian separatist forces happens to be a point of cooperation, and it is a norm for the Russian army to carry out anti-terrorist exercises with NATO.
Economically, Russia has adopted an open policy like China, introduced foreign investment, and built more than a dozen special zones; coupled with Russia's own good heavy industry base, as well as the world's more than 50 (the rank is not low, close to the level of developed countries) human resources ranking advantage, all of a sudden, Russia's economy has developed rapidly, in 2008, Russia's per capita GDP reached 11,635 US dollars;
Russia's GDP per capita curve
Although the Russian-Georgian war and the Asian financial crisis fluctuated Russia's economic development, it soon returned to the development track again, and by 2013, its per capita GDP had reached 15,974.6 US dollars, which was more than 4,000 US dollars short of the standard line of 20,000 US dollars per capita in developed countries.
We can think about whether Russia would have become a developed country today if it had stuck to its original path.
However, in 2014, history was reversed: the events in Crimea took place, and the civil war in Ukraine broke out!
II. Crimean Events: What Has Russia Lost?
1. The path of development: interruption
In 2014, the Russian ultra-conservative forces represented by Strelkov took advantage of the color revolution and internal turmoil in Ukraine to enter Crimea and recover Crimea bloodlessly, taking this as a time node. The Russian economy began to go downward.
Russia's GDP per capita in 2016
In 2016, Russia's per capita GDP fell directly to $8,704, nearly halved, and has been in a slump ever since.
The reason for this is that because of the events in Crimea and the civil war in Ukraine, the West has imposed increasingly severe sanctions on Russia.
The continuation of the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project in Russian-German cooperation cannot but be said to be a miracle.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, German Chancellor Angela Merkel once said: "The method of peace has failed, but it cannot be said that peace is bad." From this, we can speculate that she may want closer economic exchanges to reduce and prevent the risk of conflict.
Although she has since changed her tune and said: "The purpose of signing the Minsk agreements is to buy time for Ukraine to become strong." "Did Merkel think that way in 2014? I don't know.
But, no matter what, the Russian-Ukrainian war finally broke out, which is a great tragedy.
Strictly speaking, the events in Crimea interrupted Russia's move from a "quasi-developed country".
2. Events in the Crimea: the starting point of the confrontation
Russia "recovered" Crimea, Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and fighting in Donetsk was intermittent. Russia suffered more and more economic sanctions, and the confrontation became more and more intense, until the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war: the "butterfly effect" appeared, and it was out of control.
We can observe how the timeline of the U.S. adjustment to the war in Afghanistan is intertwined with Russia's actions: we can find that the adjustment of the United States and the West began with Russia's "recovery" of Crimea.
On March 18, 2014, Russia de facto took over Crimea and established the Federal District of Crimea.
On December 29, 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama officially declared the end of the war in Afghanistan.
In 2015, Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war and directly competed with the Syrian rebels supported by the United States and the West.
The war in eastern Ukraine
In July 2016, U.S. President Barack Obama announced plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.
On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar......
In May 2021, White House spokesman Pijan El publicly stated that the Biden administration is open to Ukraine's accession to NATO.
In the fall of 2021, Western allies received a warning from Washington that Russia would use force against Ukraine.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, and the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out.
In this way, we should be able to conclude that at the same time that Russia "recovered" Crimea in 2014, the United States and the West have begun to point the core of their security strategy from the non-traditional threat of "anti-terrorism" to Russia: this is the beginning of confrontation!
The development since then, the Russian-Ukrainian war, is inevitable.
III. Concluding remarks
Looking back on the past 30 years, what can Russia tell us?
In addition to fighting cautiously, it is still prudent to fight! Prudence is by no means cowardice, but waiting for an opportunity to move, and it requires concentration like a mountain.
The cruiser Moskva sank
And soldiers, the major affairs of the country, the place of death and life, and the way of survival, must not be overlooked!
May war be far away from the world, and may peace be on earth forever.