The bailout cannot always pull the prefix index

Author | Bi Yajun

　　Let's talk about the stock market.

　　Two days ago, when talking about some recent measures for the stock market, I mentioned one thing, GJD funds entered the market to save the market, and it seems that there has always been a habit -

Pull the central state-owned enterprises, especially the large-cap stocks in the first place, by pulling these to pull the index.

　　Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,800 points, and a bunch of Chinese characters rose sharply, and PetroChina even rose to a limit, and the index quickly hit nearly 2,900 points.

　　But the medicine cannot be stopped.

　　As soon as the first word rested, the index immediately turned down, and fell below 2800 points again yesterday (January 31), and this morning it was difficult to regain 2800, but still did not hold.

【1】

　　What exactly will the bailout save, and how will confidence be boosted?

　　Index performance is a key focus.

　　But the real key is to make the market profitable.

　　If the index pulls up, most investors do not make money, or even continue to lose money, the bailout may be discounted, and confidence may even be worse.

　　Last week, the prefix rose sharply, which is somewhat meaningful.

　　When these stocks pull the index red, many private listed companies, especially small and medium-sized stocks, are still weak as a whole, and even form a seesaw effect, the more central state-owned enterprises rise, and the more private enterprises fall.

　　Outstanding companies such as BYD and CATL have continued to hit new lows in recent years.

　　But private enterprises and small and mid-cap stocks are the majority of the market.

　　According to the data of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, at present, private listed companies account for 63% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and private enterprises account for more than ninety percent of the science and technology innovation board, gem and Beijing Stock Exchange, which have stronger scientific and technological innovation attributes.

　　So in the end, most investors make money on the index and lose more money.

　　Confidence is even more hit.

【2】

　　Personally, I think that if there are similar operations in the future, maybe it is time to change the thinking and practice.

　　The core is to change from pulling the index to pulling out the money-making effect, and from pulling the prefix to pulling other targets that are more market-driven and more in line with the prospects of economic trends.

　　In fact, whether from the perspective of long-term value investing or from the perspective of short-term market confidence, it is not necessarily a good choice to continue to jerk the prefix.

　　From an investment point of view, compared with private enterprises, the decline in the stock price of Zhongzitou is relatively small, PetroChina, China Shenhua and other high-quality private enterprise stocks in recent years, and a large number of high-growth, high-potential high-quality private enterprise stocks, small and medium-sized caps are at the real bottom, many or even a few years of new lows.

　　From the perspective of market confidence, what really needs to boost confidence are many private enterprise stocks and small and medium-sized investors who are buried under the bottom. Open the stock market and double it casually, these stocks and the many investors behind the stocks are really falling to the point where they want to cry without tears.

【3】

　　How to save the market to make money?

　　Perhaps these two points can be combined to consider increasing the target.

　　One is to find a lever effect that can drive an industry.

　　The stock market has a characteristic, which talks about concepts and themes, and themes and concepts talk about the leading effect. For example, if you pull up a BYD, the entire new energy vehicle industry chain may follow.

　　One is to follow the trend of national industrial economic transformation and upgrading, and find targets that are in line with future trends and have greater imagination.

　　As mentioned earlier, in my opinion, the root cause of the current extremely low market confidence and enthusiasm may not be the worry about where the bottom of the index is, but the lack of confidence and expectations in the industrial economy, on what the market depends on, and where it can rise.

　　To put it simply, it is a lack of imagination and spatial support for the future.

　　This is also one of the reasons why it is not recommended to blindly pull the prefix, in comparison, the imagination space of the prefix is limited. PetroChina can you pull a limit, how many can you pull later?

　　On the other hand, the overseas market, especially the United States, which has always been thought to have a bubble but continues to rise, is relying on Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, etc., which have the imagination of the future, to push the entire stock market to new highs.

　　The core is to dilute the color of state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, strengthen the color of the future trend of the industrial economy, choose the industrial leaders that are in line with the future trend and have a huge industrial chain driving effect, especially the chain-based enterprises, to pull the industrial chain to attack together, and most importantly, through these:

Form the meaning of the wind vane, pull out the future effect, guide the market to imagine the future, face the future, and open up the upside, instead of always using the central state-owned enterprises to build the bottom and guard.

　　In fact, this is also conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, so that the stock market can resonate more with the transformation of the industrial economy, especially with the scientific and technological innovation leadership that has been emphasized at the moment.

　　How to boost confidence in the stock market, in my opinion, you can make it very complicated, economic fundamentals and various investment theories, value logic, size environment, etc., but it can also be very simple:

In a market where people lose money, no matter how strong your fundamentals and logic are, investors will not have confidence, and in a market where people make money, investors will have confidence without fundamentals and logic.

　　So the most important thing at the moment is:

Let everyone make money, and continue for a while.

　　Finally, I would like to say a little more verbose, the capital market should be cautious about the strengthening and guidance of the concept of central state-owned enterprises, so as to prevent the weakening of expectations for private enterprises and the private economy. Such expectations are not conducive to the capital market or to the economy as a whole, and there have been lessons in this regard.

　　The stock market is an economic barometer, investing in the stock market is very important to invest in the future, our economic weather, the future of the market, can not always rely on the support and guidance of large central enterprises, old state-owned enterprises, which is too hard for them. Private enterprises are also their own people, so let everyone take on a little more responsibility together.

　　——END——

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