On January 25, 2024 local time, in Belgorod, Russia, staff of the Russian Investigative Committee walked next to the wreckage of the Russian military Il-76 aircraft. (Visual China/Photo)
On January 24, 2024, a Russian Aerospace Forces Il-76 transport plane was shot down over Belgorod on the Russian side near the Russian-Ukrainian border. This is another major loss suffered by the large military aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the past half a month. Ten days ago, the Ukrainian military announced that it had shot down an A-50 AWACS aircraft flying over the Sea of Azov and damaged an Il-22M "air command post".
Entering the new year, there have been frequent incidents of Russian high-value air assets being damaged or even shot down in the airspace under its control, and the attack on the Il-76 has expanded Ukraine's air defense ambush warfare to the airspace over the Russian mainland. This will greatly increase the difficulty of the defense of the Russian army in the future.
This is also a new strategy for the Ukrainian army to consume the Russian army, improve morale, and create a public opinion explosion in the context of the difficulty of achieving great results in the ground counteroffensive, and the missile strikes on the Russian-controlled areas are limited by the number of missiles.
So far, there are still many doubts that have not been answered definitely: What missiles were shot down by these large military planes? Who was the initiator? What are the calculations of Russia and Ukraine?
Bad signs
The most recent "bad luck" of the Russian Aerospace Forces comes on January 14, 2024.
The "RBC-Ukraine" website reported in the early morning of January 15 that at around 21:00 on the 14th, an Il-22M11 aircraft with registration number 75106 patrolling the Strilkov area was hit on the coast of the Sea of Azov. Having been hit, the aircraft intended to make an emergency landing in Anapa, request evacuation by radio, and call ambulances and firefighters.
At around 21:10 and 21:15, the A-50 AWACS aircraft was shot down after entering the patrol area near Kiriliivka. The A-50 disappeared from the radar and stopped responding to requests for tactical aviation. Subsequently, the pilot of a Russian Su-30 aircraft discovered a fire and found an unidentified aerial vehicle descending.
The media also obtained the communication records of the IL-22M with the dispatcher at Anapa Airport, and later a photo of the damaged IL-22M also appeared on the Internet.
At present, the damage of the Il-22M has been confirmed, while the downing of the A-50 lacks sufficient and conclusive evidence. Even Western media, when reporting on this incident, mostly used the expression "the Ukrainian side claimed to have shot down the A-50", and emphasized that it could not be verified.
This time, the Ukrainian side said that the downed A-50 early warning aircraft was a modernized and upgraded A-50U model, which was comprehensively upgraded on the basis of the A-50 and was the latest early warning aircraft currently available in Russia.
In the wars of the 21st century, the avionics of the early A-50 AWACS aircraft became increasingly outdated, and the advantages of the enhanced version included a 15%-20% increase in endurance, allowing each aircraft to be in the air for more than 9 hours without refueling. The biggest change was the replacement of the aging Soviet-era Shmel radar with the Shmel II radar, which provided greater situational awareness, including the ability to detect missile launches at a range of more than 1000 km, increasing the detection range of fighters by a third.
In addition, the A-50U can track up to 300 targets and provide target designation for 40 fighters, while the original Shmel radar can only track 200 and provide data for 20 aircraft.
In the 2010s, the Russian Ministry of Defense began to invest in the modernization of the AWACS fleet, and by the beginning of 2023, it is estimated that seven A-50Us have been deployed. Any one shot down is a significant loss. If this A-50U is shot down, it will be the first AWACS aircraft to be shot down in an armed conflict.
Although the Il-22M11 is called an air command aircraft, in reality, it is more of an air communications relay center. The IL-22M11 provides real-time high-speed and secure information exchange, through which it is possible to effectively control troops between different services in a variety of conditions. The aircraft's on-board equipment is capable of working with the ground command and control system (ACS).
The Il-22M11 has a flight range of about 5400 km, and its crew can accommodate up to 13 people: two pilots, a navigator, a flight engineer, a radio operator and 8 operators of communication equipment. The mission characteristics of the Il-22M11 determined that it may have cooperated with the A-50U early warning aircraft to jointly complete the early warning command task, and the Il-22M11 was responsible for distributing relevant information.
Sneak attack or mishit?
After the incident, what weapons the Russian Aerospace Forces fighter plane was attacked has become one of the concerns of the outside world.
The media imagined many ways to attack, for example, the use of F-16 fighter jets to carry out sneak attacks on the A-50U and Il-22M, with the support of NATO's early warning system. But now, the possibility of a sneak attack by a fighter plane of the Russian Aerospace Forces is relatively small.
At present, the maximum launch distance of air-to-air missiles that the Ukrainian army can obtain is low. In actual combat, it is difficult for the MiG-29 to launch the R-27 air-to-air missile at a maximum distance of 40 km. Even if the F-16 launches the AIM-120 mid-range model, its theoretical maximum attack range is only 120 kilometers, and the early model is only 80 kilometers, but when these missiles are launched at medium altitude and subsonic speed, the maximum attack range is only tens of kilometers. In particular, when fighters launch at ultra-low altitudes and low altitudes to hit higher targets, their range is lower.
It is very difficult for Ukrainian fighters to sneak up on AWACS aircraft, because the A-50U can detect low-flying fighters at a distance of 300 km. At this time, the Russian side can either send fighter jets to intercept it, or it can use ground air defense systems to intercept it. In the previous air battles, the Ukrainian fighters basically had little chance, and judging from the damage to the Il-22M, it was obviously not the small warhead of the air-to-air missile.
From this point of view, the Il-22M was damaged, and it is likely that the anti-aircraft missile did it. Thus, the second opinion emerged, in which some Russian bloggers believe that the Il-22M was accidentally damaged by Russia's own anti-aircraft missile.
It's not impossible. Because Russian targets on the Crimean peninsula have been repeatedly attacked by Ukraine, the Russian side has strengthened the deployment of air defense in the region. Moreover, the Ukrainian army has used AMD-160 air-launched decoys many times before, which can simulate a variety of targets, including large air targets, to create confusion for the Russian air defense system. It is entirely possible that the highly tense Russian air defense system mistook the Russian military aircraft for a Ukrainian target.
Earlier it was reported that the air defense forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces have included the field air defense units of the army under their command, and this news itself shows that the field air defense system of the Russian army lacks coordination and is not compatible with the Russian Aerospace Forces.
You know, this is not the first loss of such aircraft during the Russian-Ukrainian war.
On June 24, 2023, Wagner mercenaries shot down an Il-22 over the Voronezh region, this time not by mistake, but deliberately. Earlier, on September 17, 2018, a similar Il-20 aircraft was shot down by the S-200 air defense system of the Syrian Armed Forces. At that time, Syrian targets were subjected to Israeli air strikes, and Syrian air defense systems tried to repel Israeli air strikes, but mistakenly shot down Russian Il-20 aircraft.
Previously, Iran's Doyle anti-aircraft missiles had also accidentally damaged its own passenger plane. Therefore, although many people believe that the Il-22 is a very large target, which should be clearly different from fighter jets and incoming missiles, it is not uncommon for them to accidentally hit their own large aircraft in high-tension situations where reliable identification between friend and foe is difficult to achieve.
"Patriot" won the record?
Another opinion about the damage to the Il-22M is that it was attacked by the "Patriot"-2.
According to information from the Ukrainian side, the Il-22M and A-50U were about 100-150 km from the front line when they were attacked. The range of the S-200V or Patriot long-range surface-to-air missile systems allows them to intercept air targets at such a distance, but the Patriot missiles must be deployed extremely close to the front line.
The "Patriot" system is large in size and has obvious external features, which makes it relatively easy to locate once it is turned on. If the Patriot system is deployed near the line of fire on a regular basis, it is very dangerous in itself. To this end, the Ukrainian army may use long-range maneuvers, quick fights and quick retreats to ambush.
There are also numerous doubts about the use of the Patriot-2 surface-to-air missile system for ambushes.
First, after the Il-22M was damaged, an emergency landing was carried out, but if it was done by the Ukrainian Patriot surface-to-air missile system, it was entirely possible that the Ukrainian side would launch another missile and shoot down the Il-22M, which was already very fragile at that time.
Second, judging from the track map released by the Ukrainian military, 10 to 15 minutes after the Il-22M was damaged, the A-50U AWACS aircraft was attacked. It stands to reason that the Il-22M was attacked, and the A-50U, as the air command center, could not have been unaware. At this time, the A-50U can completely fly back and reduce the altitude in order to avoid the blow of the opponent's anti-aircraft missiles. With the flight speed of the A-50U, it can fly about 150 kilometers in 10 minutes, and it is possible to completely escape from the kill zone of the Patriot-2 missile. Coupled with measures such as lowering the flight altitude, there is no problem in evading the attack of the Patriot-2 missile.
Third, the Patriot-2 uses the AN/MPQ-65 radar, which is more powerful, and the electronic reconnaissance devices on board the A-50U and Il-22M are unlikely to be unresponsive to the lock-on of such radars, and can also interfere with such radars.
However, when the Il-76 was shot down and the two were "dealt with", the answer seemed clearer.
The approximate location of the attack on the Il-76 is more than 40 kilometers based on the distance between the Liptsi region and Belgorod. The IRIS-T and NASAMS anti-aircraft missiles equipped by the Ukrainian army have a maximum range of about 40 kilometers, and it is relatively difficult to ambush them in practice.
Russia's "Izvestia" reported on January 25 that a source from the Russian security agency familiar with the situation said that a preliminary examination of the wreckage of the Il-76 aircraft showed that the plane was shot down by the "Patriot" air defense system. The Russian "free media" reported that the tactics of the Ukrainian side were analyzed - the "Patriots" took advantage of the night to maneuver to the relevant area, complete the ambush with the support of NATO intelligence, and then evacuate by train.
Another evidence is the "bullet holes" in the attacked aircraft, which are formed by high-velocity fragmentation of the warhead of an anti-aircraft missile. Judging from the wreckage of the Il-76 released by the Russian side, the distribution characteristics and size of the holes are very similar to the holes of the previously disclosed Il-22M aircraft. There is a high probability that both aircraft will be attacked by the same anti-aircraft missiles. Combined with the fact that the Il-22M was attacked at a distance of more than 120 kilometers from the territory controlled by the Ukrainian side, it is clear that only the "Patriot" air defense missile system can accomplish such a task.
Of course, this only explains that the Il-22M and Il-76 were most likely attacked by the "Patriot", and it does not say whether the A-50U was shot down. The Il-76 was shot down after two or three missile strikes, indicating that the 80-kilogram warhead of the Patriot missile is not as powerful as the outside world thinks when it comes to hitting large aircraft. It is plausible that the Il-22M was damaged rather than shot down.
Zhang Xuefeng, special researcher of the Southern Defense Think Tank
Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang