Better than the circuit breaker in January 2016, the reason for the decline
On January 31, the market ended in January 2024, and the market fell weakly overall, with the Growth Enterprise Market falling -16.8% in January, only better than the -22% start of the circuit breaker in 2016. The manufacturing PMI in January looked like it had risen by 0.2% at 49.2%, but in fact the analysis below the 50% line did not make much sense. The performance of overseas capital markets is generally better than that of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but at this stage, the prices of overseas assets are generally at a high level.
There has always been a discussion about whether the A-share market is falling and falling because of shorting? Shorting does have an impact, but most of the short-sellers are trend investors, and it is the trend that gives short-sellers the opportunity to make money. Watching, I think the current bears are likely to come from two sources:
The first aspect is the restricted share part, the restricted shares cannot be realized, so the holder can obtain income through the lending of restricted shares, this part of the current loophole is being plugged, but the landing time is on March 18, which may be to give the refinancing participants some disposal time, but objectively also let the securities borrower continue the previous operation, there is the possibility of taking advantage of the situation to make money.
The second aspect is the stock index futures product, which may involve the snowball product on the cusp of the recent storm, simply understand the snowball product, the essence of which is a derivative operation for investors to sell put options to obtain coupon income, and in order to hedge the risk brokers will often participate in the trading of the corresponding stock index futures, sell high and buy low, which has also caused a drop effect on the futures index.
To sum up, I have taken a simplistic way to explain, what I want to express is that in the future investment road, investors still have to follow a simple investment logic, do not make "simple things" too complicated, for financial institutions, the goal of designing complex investment tools itself is to expand the sales of financial products, but these financial investment products often contain huge risks. In contrast, the investment method of buying a stock and holding and sharing the dividends of listed companies may be the simplest, most intuitive, and most able to protect investors' assets.
In addition to not complicating investments, another thing is that investors should not increase leverage. In the long run, the average age of the Chinese population is middle-aged, middle-aged people should not increase leverage, what age to do what, the older the future age, the less loans should be. In the short term, while the whole Chinese society is maturing, it is also becoming conservative, and the investment opportunities are limited, which is not worth pressing on the future. Therefore, no matter how optimistic you are, don't increase leverage, use as big a bowl as you have a big stomach, and don't invest more than your financial carrying capacity.
On the plate, Pien Tze Huang fell to the limit.
I think Chinese medicine companies should seize the opportunity of realizing the main drugs, use the profits of the main drugs to research and develop modern drugs, or use the channels to sell more categories of drugs.
For example, China Resources Pharmaceutical, not only because its current valuation is very low, but also because China Resources Pharmaceutical itself is a pharmaceutical sales channel enterprise.
From the perspective of Pien Tze Huang, it is indeed diversifying at present, but the profits of diversification must not be as good as the profits of Pien Tze Huang, and the progress is not up to expectations, which means that Pien Tze Huang's profit margin will decline in the future.
So can Pien Tze Huang invest?
The answer is yes, but the current valuation is still a bit expensive. Someone asked me why more than 400 people rushed to buy it, and now it has fallen below 200 yuan, do you still think it is expensive? I remember that in July 2021, more than 480 times, I said that Pien Tze Huang's 120 times PE is too expensive, and according to the performance of 2021, the maximum PE is 40-50 times, and the valuation of today's drop limit is 40 times. If you can make a profit of 3.5 billion in 2024, then the valuation will be 30 times PE. The valuation method I am talking about is not to recommend, but to tell you the value
Investors can wait for lower valuations before participating.
At the same time, I also hope that Pien Tze Huang can continue to make breakthroughs in diversification, after all, New Oriental can't rely on Dong Yuhui alone, and Pien Tze Huang can't just rely on Pien Tze Huang.
Lv Changshun (Cairns) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious]
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#1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;; --weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: 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#373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){{filter:brightness(.8)}}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}