After Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Sullivan held two days of talks in Thailand, the US side once again conveyed its strong willingness to dialogue and communicate with China. Among them, what has attracted the most attention of the international community is that China and the United States have jointly released a signal that the two heads of state will hold direct dialogue. The rich information behind this has made the Japanese Kishida Fumio government unable to sit still, and its attitude towards China has taken a 180-degree turn.
After the talks between Wang Yi and Sullivan, the US side issued a statement saying that the talks were "constructive", and the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the Sino-US strategic communication was "candid, substantive and fruitful". Immediately after that, the U.S. side hinted at new arrangements for dialogue with China, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken's possible visit to China in February and March, and even President Biden's willingness to visit China.
A signal from China and the United States is that the two heads of state will hold direct talks. There are various signs that the Biden administration hopes to achieve a breakthrough in US-China relations as soon as possible this year, so as to add a shot of "diplomatic performance" to the November presidential election. If Biden does not make it to China within this year, he will be the only U.S. president in recent years who has not visited China in his first term. This will be a major flaw in his diplomatic work, which will inevitably be attacked by Trump.
(Chinese Foreign Affairs Chief Wang Yi and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Thailand)
In the face of the intensifying exchanges between China and the United States, the first of America's allies to sit still is the Japanese government of Fumio Kishida. When Fumio Kishida recently delivered his 2024 policy address to the Diet, his attitude towards China can be said to have taken a 180-degree turn, putting "the Japanese government's intention to develop relations with China" in the first place, and all kinds of accusations against China have been brushed aside.
(Fumio Kishida delivered his latest policy speech)
The United States has recently engaged in a lot of dialogue and communication with China. In addition, China and the U.S. government have successively launched "first-line" diplomacy directly through foreign affairs, military departments, and commercial and trade departments, and many non-governmental think tanks and economic and trade organizations in China and the United States have organized "second-line" diplomacy. The Sino-US summit held on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco last November was a sign of the highest tide of Sino-US exchanges.
The reason why Biden has the idea of visiting China is because the United States can be said to have "internal and external troubles" recently, and Biden urgently needs to make a breakthrough in diplomacy to add points to his election.
In the United States, the 2024 election has caused intensifying infighting between the two parties, and various strange events have been repeatedly hyped, in addition to the "Loli Island" incident, Texas openly opposes the Biden administration and the decision of the Supreme Court, and refuses to implement the removal of the border separation barbed wire, which is also causing the hidden worry of "American Civil War".
Internationally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is deadlocked, Ukraine has basically lost hope of regaining the occupied land, the Congress controlled by the Republican Party in the United States has blocked further assistance from the US government to Ukraine, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has created a risk of spillover, in addition to the Yemeni Houthis continue to attack merchant ships in the Red Sea under the attack of Britain and the United States, the anti-US forces in the Middle East have attacked US military bases one after another, so that the United States can not completely stay in it; at the same time, the Korean Peninsula is also covered with dark clouds, and North Korea's policy toward South Korea has undergone major changes. After the election of Taiwan's leader, the mainland has also strengthened its compression of Taiwan's "diplomatic and military space." By comparison, the Philippines' provocations in the South China Sea are nothing too big. In such a situation, how can the Biden administration sit still?
(Japan's foreign trade deficit for three consecutive years, which is unbearable for the Japanese economy)
After the United States, Japan, and the ROK held talks at Camp David last August and the Asian "mini-NATO" has taken shape, any direction of the US policy toward China will have a marked impact on the China policy of Japan and the ROK, thus once again confirming the mainstream view that Japan and the ROK are just puppet states of the United States. Therefore, after China and the United States have strengthened exchanges, Japan must also make a difference.
(Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the Social Democratic Party of Japan, visits the Chinese Memorial Hall of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression)
In addition to the fact that Japan must strengthen exchanges with China due to the influence of the United States, the current situation of the Japanese economy has also forced Fumio Kishida to make a U-turn in his attitude toward China. Japan's foreign trade in goods will turn into a deficit from 2021, which is unacceptable for Japan, which is a "trading country", but in this case, the Japanese government is still following the United States to engage in trade "decoupling" and "de-risking" with China, and even impose an embargo on China in the field of semiconductor equipment and materials in which it has a greater advantage, how can it not cause China's countermeasures?
Last year, China imposed a ban on the import of Japanese seafood due to Japan's start of discharging nuclear sewage from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea, and the resulting private boycott of Japanese tourism and even some products, which has made the Kishida government unbearable. In November last year, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of the Komeito Party, which also belongs to Japan's ruling coalition, arrived in Beijing for a visit; not long ago, Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the Japanese Social Democratic Party, also led a delegation to visit China and also visited the Lugou Bridge and the Memorial Hall of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression; and the Japanese economic circles also sent a delegation of business leaders of as many as 180 people to visit China to express their hope for Sino-Japanese cooperation and strengthening economic relations.
However, recent exchanges between China and Japan have not yielded the results that Japan had hoped for, and China has not lifted its ban on imports of Japanese seafood. In the final analysis, after Fumio Kishida's policy speech, the positive changes in attitudes toward China must be implemented.