From January 1 to 30, 2024, among the 2,650 varieties (including different markets of the same variety, different specifications, different origins, the same below) monitored by the Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Big Data Center, the number of rising varieties was 125, a decrease of 1 from December 2023, and the number of falling varieties was 249, a decrease of 52 from December 2023, and the prices of the remaining varieties did not fluctuate much compared with the previous month.
1. The rise and fall of Chinese herbal medicines in January
1.1 Brief analysis of rising varieties
Table 1: Top 20 varieties of this month (unit: yuan/kg)
Atractylodes, in mid-January, the market in the production area continued to rise, the price of merchants also continued to rise, Bozhou market one-year-old Atractylodes because of the quality of the price of 80-95 yuan (kilogram price, the same below) range, and the two-year-old Atractylodes atractylodes price in about 100 yuan or even as high as more than 100 yuan, Anhui two-year Atractylodes tablets price between 120-130 yuan, the current price has reached a historical high, merchants buy on demand.
Nasturtium, mainly tea-based, medicinal demand is average. With the digestion of the supply, the market inventory is weak, the normal purchase and sale of the near futures source, the price is strong and upward, the price of the Golden Lotus Pharmaceutical Factory in the market is 280 yuan, and the price of tea is 310 yuan, the market attention is not high, and it is difficult for peripheral businesses to participate.
Peach blossoms, the market declined after the output of new goods in the spring, with the recent supply of goods, the supply of goods in the market has decreased, and the price of the holders is higher than that of the previous period, and the price of peach blossoms in the market is between 65-70 yuan, and continue to pay attention to the future source of sales.
Ginkgo seeds, last year's new output was lower than the previous period, the supply of goods has been sold in batches, the market inventory has been digested, the overall market is higher than the same period last year, the market Ginkgo fruit is sold at a price of 6.5-7 yuan, the market merchants pay attention to the general, and the future market is expected to run smoothly.
White peony, the supply of goods in the production area has improved recently, especially the tail peony market has risen by about 5 yuan, the market has been affected, the attention of merchants has increased, the supply of goods has accelerated, and the price has also shown signs of rising, the price of small round pieces is between 48-49 yuan, the price of medium pieces is 52-53 yuan, and the price of larger pieces is 55-58 yuan, and the market outlook is worth paying attention to.
1.2 Brief analysis of falling varieties
Table 2: Top 20 Falling Varieties This Month (Unit: RMB/kg)
Shoot dry, new goods increase after new production, the market price of the origin is lower, new goods hit the market, the market sellable volume continues to grow, the business purchase enthusiasm is not high, the market is weak and falls, the price of the film is now around 105 yuan, and the market outlook is still unstable.
Prickly pear, is a small variety of the market, the sales volume is not large, the current market inventory is sufficient, mostly sporadic walking, the market is weak and downward, the retail price of the cold back line in the market is 18 yuan, the price of large goods is around 15 yuan, and the attention of merchants is not high.
Osmanthus, in the past two years, the output has gradually increased, the market supply has been replenished, the holder of the goods is actively selling, but moving slowly, the market is gradually declining, the price of the goods is between 130-140 yuan, and the market is dominated by small transactions.
Oxknee, new goods increased, the origin of the market fell, the market can supply sufficiently, near the normal purchase and sale of futures sources, the market is lower than the previous period, the market is generally 0.4-0.6 chew price in 22 yuan, 0.6-0.8 chew price in 24 yuan.
Gypsum, the market inventory is sufficient, but the demand is limited, recently in the slow digestion stage, and the market downturn, the current market price is about 2.2-2.5 yuan; the price of imported goods is basically the same as that of domestic goods, the merchant quotation is 1.8-2 yuan, and the market outlook is limited.
2. Market review in January
Compared with December 2023, there is little change in the price increase varieties this month, after experiencing new production in autumn and the price of bulk varieties fluctuated downward, some bulk varieties have changed in the market this month, and there may be capital intervention factors behind it.
This month's rise in varieties is mainly cold-backed small varieties, due to the increase in procurement costs, resulting in an increase in the asking price of the holders; this month's decline in varieties and months decreased by 52, close to the end of the year, market transactions shrank, merchants to collect money-based, some new, high-priced varieties of prices appeared rational pullback.
At the end of the year, the search for the market increased, the real estate varieties rotated, in late January, the northern angelica, codonopsis, ginseng was eye-catching, in January, the country had a cold wave, short-term snow in many places, Hunan was more severely affected, and the drought in the rest of the places was alleviated, and the impact of frost damage remains to be observed.
There has been a wave of upsurge in real estate varieties in Bozhou market, such as atractylodes, white peony, peony skin, angelica angelica, etc., some of which are in a hurry to ship, and the market is declining;
The characteristics of medicinal herbs that rose in January are as follows:
First, some hot varieties stopped falling or rebounded After the new production in the autumn of 2023, some bulk varieties have experienced a significant decline in the market due to the obvious increase in production capacity; For example, Atractylodes macrocephalus, the output in 2023 is not large, and it is a variety that funds pay attention to, and as the supply is concentrated in the hands of large households, the price has risen sharply. Similar varieties include white peony, peony bark, codonopsis, angelica, etc.
Second, the cost of holding cold-backed varieties increased in January, most of them are not used in large quantities or even cold-backed varieties, due to the low market attention of small varieties, the market price of the origin does not rise, and it cannot stimulate farmers to plant or harvest normally. For example, nasturtium, due to the short cycle of new production, and mainly tea-based, the market was not high in previous years, resulting in limited production last year and a rapid rise in prices. There are also varieties such as peach blossoms, flies, crow's brains, yellow hair ear grass and other varieties are due to the increase in procurement costs, and the market price naturally rises.
The characteristics of Chinese herbal medicines that fell in January are as follows:
First, the production of some varieties has ended this month, and the price has fallen after the increase in output If it is dry, the planting cycle is 2-3 years, it takes 3 years for seed planting to be planted, and it takes 1-2 years for seedlings to be planted, and the price increase period has lasted for more than 2 years from 2021 to 2023. The production capacity of this variety is gradually recovering, and the current price will continue to stimulate planting, and the market will continue to pull back in the future. Other varieties such as osmanthus, hyssop, tangerine peel, loofah and other varieties are large in output, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.
Second, some varieties are poorly digested this month, and prices continue to be sluggish Some varieties are not in place after the price decline, coupled with the low demand, and they will face a new production cycle in 2024. For example, Chuanxiong will produce a large amount of new products in 2023, but the market has not fallen to the bottom after the new production, but because of the participation of funds, the price has repeatedly fluctuated at medium and high prices. Entering 2024, the market and origin inventory are large, the planting area in 2023 is not small, the price is weak, and the output is still expected to be large in 2024, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the future market. There are also varieties such as cumin and angelica.
3. Market outlook for February
3.1 Affected by the Spring Festival, demand shrank sharply
February 2024 is basically in the Spring Festival holiday, the production area and market will be closed for about 20 days, and pharmaceutical companies will also reduce purchases. Throughout February, the Chinese herbal medicine market was basically in a state of "paralysis", and the overall offline trading volume is expected to decrease significantly. However, the demand for e-commerce during the Spring Festival is strong, and some nourishing and health care varieties are in the peak sales season, and the demand for gifts has increased significantly. Weakening bulk transactions and increasing demand for retail gifts will be the main theme in February.
3.2 Pay attention to the increase in the planting area of Chinese medicinal materials for spring ploughing
The beginning of the Spring Festival is approaching, and all parts of the country have begun to enter the spring ploughing preparations. The Chinese herbal medicine market has experienced more than 4 years of general rise, and the vast majority of varieties are still running at a high level, and the planting enthusiasm of growers has also climbed to the peak in the past five years.
The phenomenon of eager pharmaceutical farmers actively participating in the production and technical exchange of Chinese herbal medicines has aroused the attention of the industry, and some businesses have begun to actively shift their business focus, gradually shifting from the circulation link to the production link. In 2024, how much the planting area of Chinese herbal medicines will increase and which varieties will become popular varieties for planting, which will have an impact on the overall market in 2024.
3.3 It is still necessary to pay close attention to the epidemic and the frequent occurrence of respiratory diseases such as influenza
The first quarter of each year is a period of high incidence of respiratory diseases, from the perspective of the classification of the efficacy of Chinese herbal medicines, the demand for relieving the surface, clearing heat, aromatizing and dampness, regulating qi, dissolving phlegm, relieving cough and asthma, and replenishing deficiency will still increase significantly, and the industry should beware of obvious price changes due to the tight circulation of raw materials in the short term.
To sum up, our platform suggests that in the first quarter of 2024, the concentrated production of new varieties, high-priced risk varieties, imported spice varieties and anti-epidemic medicinal materials varieties need to strengthen monitoring and early warning to avoid large price rises and falls;
(Unless otherwise noted in the article, the data are from Zhongkang Yunling)