After Sufuda entered China, it has been discussed whether it will create the next sales myth or become the next generation of flu drug kings.
"Chinese Entrepreneur" reporter Tan Liping
Edited by Mina
Header image source: Visual China
Sufuda, you are rising much faster than stocks-some netizens lamented on Xiaohongshu. After she bought it for 270 yuan per box in December 2023, just one month later, the price of Sufuda nearly doubled.
Sufuda, also known as mabaloxavir, is a new "Internet celebrity" flu drug. This winter, it has been nicknamed the best "wealth management product" for the middle class because of its soaring prices.
At the same time as the price is rising, Sufuda is in a state of shortage in first-tier cities such as Beijing, both online and offline. At present, the domestic medical insurance payment price is 222.36 yuan / box of Sufuda (20 mg * 2 tablets / box), and the price on an e-commerce platform is even as high as 620 yuan, that is to say, the price of a piece of medicine is as high as 300 yuan, which is more expensive than gold - on January 28, the domestic gold price was 478.21 yuan / gram, and the price of Sufuda was 0.02 grams, according to the medical insurance price, each gram was as high as about 5559 yuan, which was 11 times the price of gold.
On January 25, a staff member of a pharmacy in Fengtai District, Beijing, told "Chinese Entrepreneur" that the pharmacy's Sufuda was out of stock for about a month, because the purchase price was too expensive, "Now our pharmacy purchase price is 550 yuan per box, if there are special needs, you can help you book, and you will be charged an additional 20 or 30 yuan per box for freight."
Compared with the treatment of oseltamivir, which needs to be taken twice a day for 5 consecutive days, Sufuda has a longer half-life, and only needs to take the drug once in the whole course of the disease to control the disease, which is the main reason why many people choose Sufuda. However, patients need to take it within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms, which has caused many people to start a "hoarding wave". As a result, all kinds of "scalpers" also smelled business opportunities and joined the rush tide.
For the rush to buy and hoard drugs, virology expert Chang Rongshan believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, the first and second flow may be further improved, and after Sufuda is listed as a new drug, it has not yet seen the phase IV clinical data used in children in the mainland, that is, after the drug is more widely used, it is necessary to continue to test the efficacy and adverse reactions, and children under the age of three are used beyond the standard, and must be cautious under the guidance of doctors.
As a new drug, Sufuda was approved to enter China in April 2021, 20 years later than the "predecessor" oseltamivir. However, the high popularity after entering the game has also brought a new competitive pattern to the domestic anti-influenza drug market. After Sufuda entered, it has been discussed whether it will create the next sales myth or become the next generation of flu medicine kings. On social media, "flu special medicine" and "A and B must eat fast Fuda" have also become hot topics, and the last one with a special effect drug "prestige" is Pfizer's "new crown special drug" Paxlovid.
"There are a lot of people rushing to collect medicine"
For more than a month, Ms. Zhao in Beijing has witnessed the soaring price of Sufuda's drug.
The first time she paid attention to Sufuda was in early December 2023, when the latter was hotly discussed on social platforms with the title of "first-class miracle drug". On December 9, she had symptoms of fever, and although she did not detect influenza A, influenza B and mycoplasma with the self-test kit, she bought the first box of Sufuda for 389.5 yuan on the takeaway platform for the first time under the recommendation of a friend. After the takeaway was delivered, I took medicine once on the same day, and my condition improved after that.
Source: Interviewee
On December 12, Ms. Zhao's child also developed fever. She bought another box of Sufuda at a price of 409.5 yuan. At this time, although the price increased, it was still possible to purchase the drug through pharmacies in a timely manner.
A month later, her child had a fever again, and after going to the hospital to be diagnosed with influenza B, the doctor prescribed a box of Sufuda. At that time, the hospital still had stock, and the price was only about 220 yuan, 20 yuan for medical insurance, and 200 yuan for self-payment. It was also during this period that when she bought medicine again on the takeaway platform, she was notified that it was out of stock and was forced to cancel the order. When I bought it for the fourth time on the platform on January 18, 2024, it had risen to 458 yuan, and it was shipped by express delivery from other places.
However, according to the usage of Sufuda, patients need to take it within 48 hours after the onset of symptoms, and this time window has also opened a "hoarding tide" for many people.
Offline hospitals and pharmacies are the first to become "conquerors". "China Entrepreneur" contacted a number of pharmacies in Beijing's Fengtai District and Daxing District, but they all said that they were out of stock. It is understood that the price of Sufuda before the price increase was more than 200 yuan, which was "too expensive" compared to oseltamivir.
A pharmacy staff said that from November 2023, Sufuda began to run out of stock, and "more than 80 pharmacies under the company are out of stock." Another pharmacy employee bluntly said, "There are no goods in normal channels now", suggesting that the reporter went to find a "drug dealer".
The hospital needs the patient to be diagnosed with influenza A or influenza B before prescribing medicine, but because in this wave of infection, some people have false negative flu test results, which makes many people "ask for medicine" on social platforms. At present, a number of e-commerce platforms are selling in limited quantities at multiple times. But according to the feedback of netizens, there are not many people who have successfully grabbed it.
The surge in demand has led to a large number of "scalpers". On January 22, the reporter asked a drug seller, and the other party said that the supply was sufficient and offered 430 yuan. When asked about the price being more expensive than the e-commerce platform, the other party bluntly said, "Then you go to the e-commerce platform to buy it." ”
A person who claimed to be an errand boy took the initiative to contact the reporter, saying that the medicine was prescribed from a tertiary hospital, and the customer did not want it until he resold it. In the face of the reporter's questioning of the details, the other party bluntly said, "Why do you ask so much, there are a lot of (people) rushing to collect it now."
China Entrepreneur noted that there is not a nationwide shortage. A patient in Tianjin told reporters that after being diagnosed with influenza B in the hospital, although the hospital was out of stock, the pharmacy "can buy it at any time". However, the price is still high, and on January 20, she bought a box for 409.5 yuan.
According to the data provided by JD Health to "China Entrepreneur", the demand for influenza medicine is still high since 2024. Since January this year, the search volume of keywords related to influenza drugs has continued to increase compared with the same period of the previous month, with a 107% increase in Sufuda, a 107% increase in mabaloxavir tablets (i.e., Sufuda), and a 20% increase in oseltamivir. This year's flu-related hot search words also include "influenza A special drug" and "B influenza special drug".
Virology expert Chang Rongshan believes that influenza A virus is a zoonotic disease that spreads between humans and animals, and it can infect animals, such as birds, poultry, and pigs, and can also spread from person to person through people who are in close contact with these animals. Influenza B is different, it only infects people, its transmissibility and pathogenicity are lower than that of influenza A, the transmission range is relatively small, and as long as you are vaccinated, you can stop its epidemic.
He suggested that ordinary people should prevent the flu by wearing masks and washing their hands frequently, and for people with poor immunity, they can choose to be vaccinated for prevention. "The Spring Festival is approaching, the flow of people is increasing, and the flu (number of people) will definitely go up again. ”
As for Sufuda, he said that as a prescription drug, it is necessary to be cautious in the use of drugs, for example, Sufuda has strict requirements for the weight of users, and those with a small weight base need to reduce the dosage, "These chemical antiviral drugs may have some damage to the liver and kidneys, and the dosage needs to be paid attention to."
In addition, he reminded lactose intolerant patients to use with caution and not to receive live attenuated vaccine within 17 days after taking Sufuda.
Sufuda's sales have increased by 3.5 times
According to the data of Jingdong drug buying platform, since the beginning of this year, the top three influenza drugs with the highest turnover are: Sufuda, Kewei (the trade name of East Sunshine Pharmaceutical Oseltamivir) and Tamiflu (the trade name of Roche Oseltamivir).
Previously, Zhongxin Jingwei quoted data from Zhongkang Holdings' Kaisi system showing that in China's general hospital terminals and retail terminals, oseltamivir (regardless of dosage form and brand name) sold 1.085 billion yuan, 2.705 billion yuan and 5.20 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to the first three quarters of 2023. Sufuda's sales are 300,000 yuan, 53 million yuan and 187 million yuan - the sales volume in the first three quarters of 2023 has increased by 3.5 times compared with the whole year of 2022.
Although there is a large gap between the two in terms of "volume" in China, Sufuda is growing rapidly.
As a new anti-influenza drug, mabaloxavir was originally developed by Japanese pharmaceutical company Shionogi and was jointly developed by Roche in 2016 to jointly lead the research and development of the drug outside of Japan and Taiwan. Among them, Roche has the right to promote business outside of Japan and Taiwan.
In April 2021, Sufuda was approved in mainland China for the treatment of patients aged 12 and above with uncomplicated influenza A and B, including previously healthy patients and patients at high risk of influenza complications.
In March 2023, Sufuda will be further expanded to treat previously healthy adults and children aged 5 years and older with uncomplicated influenza A and B, or adults and children aged 12 years and older who are at high risk of influenza-related complications.
In contrast, oseltamivir, as the "king of influenza medicine" of the previous generation, has been in China for more than 20 years.
The original manufacturer of oseltamivir is also Roche. "Tamiflu" was approved in China in 2001, and in 2005 and 2006, Roche Pharmaceutical licensed oseltamivir to Shanghai Zhongxi Sanwei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and East Sunshine Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for production, with the trade names "Orfi" and "Kewei" respectively.
As the second anti-influenza drug launched by Roche in China, Sufuda is also known as "Super Tamiflu" because it can stop virus shedding within 24 hours with only one dose of the whole drug, shorten the infectious period and greatly reduce the duration of flu symptoms. According to a previous report by Yicai, Roche insiders said that in the field of influenza drugs, the company's main drug is Sufuda.
Regarding the recent shortage of Sufuda and price increases, "Chinese Entrepreneur" called Roche Pharmaceutical, and the staff of the other party said, "As a manufacturer, we do not directly sell drugs. The specific price of the drug is based on the purchase and there are no recommendations. ”
It is understood that on March 22, 2023, Roche Pharmaceutical China and China Resources Pharmaceutical Commercial Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and the two parties will jointly promote Sufuda in Chinese mainland. According to the cooperation agreement, Roche will continue to be responsible for the channel promotion of Sufuda in major hospital markets across the country, and CR Pharmaceutical Commercial will be responsible for the channel promotion of Sufuda in the online and offline retail markets, as well as some of the sinking markets. China Entrepreneur called China Resources Pharmaceutical Commercial, but the call was not answered.
Previously, Roche Pharmaceuticals replied to the "Daily Economic News" that in the face of the surge in market demand for Sufuda, the company has quickly launched a plan to mobilize global supply chain resources and urgently stock up to ensure supply in the Chinese market. At present, it is arriving at the Chinese port in batches as planned.
Some companies are eyeing Sufuda generic drugs
The popularity of Sufuda may also cause ripples in the anti-flu drug market, which has been quite turbulent in the past few years.
In the past few years, people's protection has increased, and the number of confirmed cases of influenza has plummeted, which has also made anti-influenza virus drugs seriously unsalable.
Take the "king of flu medicine" East Sunshine Medicine as an example. As one of the only two pharmaceutical companies in China to obtain the authorization of Roche oseltamivir generic drugs, in 2019, the sales of its Kewei series products reached a historical peak of 5.934 billion yuan, and the market share once exceeded 90%.
East Sunshine Pharmaceutical R&D Laboratory. Source: Visual China
However, in 2020 and 2021, the total operating income of East Sunshine Pharmaceutical was 2.348 billion yuan and 914 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 62.27% and 61.08%, and in 2021, East Sunshine Pharmaceutical suffered its first loss in history, with a net profit of -588 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170.3%.
It was not until 2022 that the performance of East Sunshine Pharmaceutical turned around with the increase in personnel flow, with a total annual sales of 3.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 309.83%, turning losses into profits, and Kewei's sales also rebounded to 3.09 billion yuan.
However, Chang Rongshan also said that the flu is high in winter and spring, and anti-flu drugs are almost impossible to sell in other seasons, and the shelf life of flu drugs is usually two years. After three years of the epidemic, it is impossible to suddenly scale up production, which shows that the supply of Sufuda also needs at least one to one and a half months of reaction cycle.
With the expiration of Roche's oseltamivir patent in China, many pharmaceutical companies have begun to compete for the generic market of oseltamivir. First of all, Borui Pharmaceutical, in 2021 and 2022, it has successively obtained the production approval of oseltamivir phosphate capsules and oseltamivir phosphate dry suspension. Later, Poinsettia, Huahai Pharmaceutical, and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical also disclosed that the company's oseltamivir phosphate capsules were approved for marketing in China.
At present, searching for "oseltamivir" on the official website of the State Food and Drug Administration, there are a total of 51 drug production approval numbers. It can be seen that the competition is quite fierce.
In the seventh batch of national drug centralized procurement, East Sunshine Pharmaceutical, as a long-term "one dominant" player, also offered the lowest price of oseltamivir in the market - 0.99 yuan / tablet. Obviously, as the oseltamivir generic drug track gradually becomes crowded in the future, the "price war" may continue to start.
After Sufuda entered China, Chinese companies also set their sights on its generic drug track. In July 2021, three months after Sufuda was approved in China, CSPC Ouyi, a subsidiary of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, submitted a generic drug marketing application to the Center for Drug Evaluation of the State Food and Drug Administration, and obtained the approval for the generic drug production of mabaloxavir in October 2022.
However, for this application, Roche issued a statement on its official WeChat, "The approval of the generic drug of Ouyi Company by the State Drug Administration does not mean that Ouyi Company can manufacture, sell or promise to sell its generic drug mabaloxavir tablets for the purpose of production and operation, otherwise it will constitute infringement of the above patent." ”