According to recent news, the mainland is negotiating with Russia on the price of natural gas on the issue of the Siberian 2 pipeline. We hope that Russia will reduce the price of natural gas to 271.3 US dollars per thousand cubic meters.
Russia is constantly holding consultations with the mainland on this request. Since Mongolia was not invited to this consultation, it has raised concerns on the Mongolian side.
The Mongolian prime minister even called for a trilateral summit to strengthen cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia in energy and transportation. The implication is, can you bring me with you when you two discuss natural gas?
It stands to reason that the mainland's business with Russia has nothing to do with Mongolia, so why is Mongolia so panicked? On this issue, we must first understand the past and present life of the Siberian No. 2 pipeline.
China and Russia do business
The gas pipeline was established by China and Russia in 2020. According to Russia's plan, once the Siberia-2 pipeline is completed, it can provide 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the mainland every year, and its efficiency is 1/3 more than that of the previous Siberia-1.
As a result, Siberia-2 will surpass the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Europe to become the world's largest gas pipeline.
Of course, after Russia put forward this idea, it added a sentence at the end: China will provide the funds needed to build the pipeline. Including $67 billion in direct investment and $27 billion in construction materials, all of which were funded by China.
In short, it is possible to connect the gas pipeline to China, but China will have to bear the cost of this.
Naturally, our side does not buy this request from Russia. After all, after the completion of this pipeline, both China and Russia will benefit. Everyone has money to make, so why should the mainland only be allowed to invest? So, after some weighing, the mainland refused to sign this contract.
At this time, many people may ask, why did the mainland refuse so neatly? Isn't it just responsible for the initial investment? After the pipeline is completed, won't the money invested in it be recovered in minutes?
Why did we refuse to sign?
Of course, there is another reason why the mainland refuses to sign, and that is that the pipeline passes through Mongolia.
According to the design of the Russian side, the Siberian-2 pipeline has a total length of 6,700 kilometers, of which 960 kilometers go to Mongolia. It can be seen that this business is not only done by China and Russia. Mongolia also squatted aside, smiling happily with sacks of money.
So what are the hidden dangers of natural gas pipelines transiting Mongolia to the mainland?
There are many hidden dangers. First of all, Mongolia's political situation is not very stable in the first place. In 2022, several riots broke out in Mongolia due to internal power struggles and corruption. At that time, the demonstrators in Mongolia even ran to the government building and carried out smashing and looting activities in front of the building, and the outside world was blinded.
Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia, the coal trade between the mainland and Mongolia has been affected. It can be seen that the territory of Mongolia is indeed not suitable for business. In this case, wouldn't it be troublesome to put a gas pipeline to Mongolia?
As for the second factor in the mainland's refusal to sign, it is because Mongolia has been in trouble with the United States for a long time. At this time, many people may have questions again, Mongolia and the United States are separated by 108,000 miles, and they are still sandwiched between China and Russia, how dare he come together with the United States?
In fact, the relationship between Mongolia and the United States is far closer than everyone thinks. As early as a few years ago, Mongolia kept holding joint military exercises with the United States. As the military exercises continue to intensify, Mongolia even plans to invite the United States to garrison troops, almost treating itself as a presence like Japan and South Korea.
And the contacts between Mongolia and the United States go far beyond that. For example, in June 2022, Mongolia held an in-depth negotiation with SpaceX, and the conversation included Starlink cooperation and satellite launches.
Satellite launches are understandable, but Starlink is something to be considered. After all, Ukraine relies on the Starlink system to fight back and forth with the Russian army. Therefore, once Mongolia is also connected to Starlink, the mainland may be included in the monitoring range of NATO's Eye at that time. Under such circumstances, it will pose a huge threat to the mainland's national defense and security.
As soon as the cannon goes off, the gold is ten thousand taels, and Russia needs this pipeline more than the mainland
In addition, the United States has established a space tourism and personnel cooperation center in Mongolia's South Gobi Province. According to the United States, the surface environment of Mongolia's South Gobi Province is similar to that of Mars, so it is better to set up a scientific research institute here to carry out experiments.
However, anyone familiar with the map of Mongolia knows that this location is actually on the border between China and Mongolia. Once the United States sets up a surveillance system in the region, it could be as effective as South Korea's THAAD.
It can be said that Mongolia has always been in a state of repeated horizontal jumps between China, the United States and Russia. Under such circumstances, how can the mainland hand over the natural gas pipeline to them to take care of? In case Mongolia uses this pipeline to get stuck in its neck, won't it cause a series of energy crises for the mainland?
Of course, in the face of our refusal, Russia could not hold its breath. Because Russia is so short of money right now. As the saying goes, when the cannon goes off, there are ten thousand taels of gold. Now that the Russian-Ukrainian war has turned into a war of attrition, Russia has to invest a lot of money on the front line every day. Under such circumstances, the Russian side is bound to take advantage of this very channel to get some money out of the mainland.
In fact, as early as last year, Russia made some moves. At that time, Russian Prime Minister Mishustin visited China, and he held talks with mainland representatives on the issue of the Siberia-2 pipeline. According to Mishustin's plan, the Russian side will first take $400 billion in advance payments from the mainland so that it can be used for the construction of the pipeline in the early stage.
As for the actual use of this money, it is up for debate. You must know that when China and Russia cooperated in the construction of the Siberian No. 1 pipeline, Russia took 400 billion US dollars, and then the Russian army took Crimea. It is not difficult to deduce from this that Russia seems to want to repeat its old tricks and strive to "take" another sum of money from the mainland to use for its huge war expenses.
Of course, in order to show its sincerity this time, Russia simply did not invite Mongolia to come over for consultations. This is where Mongolia called for cooperation at the beginning. After all, China and Russia don't take him to play anymore, and Mongolia's heart will naturally panic. As for how to advance the next pipeline matters, it depends on the game of the three parties.